taking-a-closer-look-at-ic-analysts(編輯修改稿)
2025-08-20 15:17 本頁面
【文章內(nèi)容簡(jiǎn)介】 12 ? COMPLEXITY – MANY INDEPENDENT ACTORS – MULTIPLE VARIABLES – DYNAMIC/ADAPTIVE BEHAVIOR – EMERGENT OUTCOMES ? HUMAN BEHAVIOR – INDIVIDUAL AND GROUP PROCESSES CHARACTERISTICS OF “NOBODY KNOWS” QUESTIONS 13 NEW APPROACHES TO MOVE FROM PROVIDING INTELLIGENCE TO PROVIDING UNDERSTANDING TRADITIONAL ANALYSIS NEW APPROACHES INFORMATION INTELLIGENCE KNOWLEDGE UNDERSTANDING DATA FACTS CONNECTIONS/ RELATIONSHIPS PROCESSES/ OUTCOMES 14 Potential New Approaches ? NATURAL EXPERIMENTATION ? COMPLEXITY SCIENCE ? MODELING AND SIMULATION ? WHAT ELSE? 15 SOME OTHER IDEAS ? EXPERIMENT WITH AND INTEGRATE ONGOING EFFORTS (IC Test Nets) ? PUSH THE SCIENCE PARTNER WITH NSF AND DARPA ? INCREASE FUNDING FOR EXPLORATORY PROGRAMS – SMALL GROUP MODELS – SOCIETAL MODELS ? SUBSIDIZE SELECT WARGAME DEVELOPERS (EXISTING GAME ENHANCEMENTS) ? “LIBRARY” OR CROSSREFERENCE FOR INTELLIGENCE RELATED SIMULATIONS 16 “THE RULES OF THE GAME: LEARN EVERYTHING, READ EVERYTHING, INQUIRE INTO EVERYTHING… WHEN TWO TEXTS, OR TWO ASSERTIONS, OR PERHAPS TWO IDEAS, ARE IN CONTRADICTION, BE READY TO RECONCILE THEM RATHER THAN CANCEL ONE BY THE OTHER。 REGARD THEM AS TWO DIFFERENT FACETS, OR TWO SUCCESSIVE STAGES, OF THE SAME REALITY, A REALITY CONVINCINGLY HUMAN JUST BECAUSE IT IS COMPLEX.” ANALYSIS AND COMPLEXITY Marguerite Yourcenar, Memoirs of Hadrian 17 NonLinear Dynamics of Human Behavior (NDHB) Advanced Ramp。D Program ? Can we achieve a better understanding of Human Dynamics。 Individual and Small Group Behavior。 Leadership Decision Making。 Large Group Dynamics? Can we model it? ? Can we use modeling approaches to influence the present or to forecast potential future events/activities? What approaches are best for which intelligence problems? ? Can we use models and simulations for knowledge discovery? ? Can we model across missing data? ? Can we use models and simulations as a method for training analysts in hypothesis
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