商務(wù)英語(yǔ)閱讀chapter2achangedglobalreality世界經(jīng)濟(jì)格局新變化(編輯修改稿)
2025-05-03 12:51 本頁(yè)面
【文章內(nèi)容簡(jiǎn)介】 cuts in the budget mandated by Prime Minister David Cameron will most likely cost hundreds of thousands of publicsector jobs. In the ., the miserable condition of state and local governments39。 budgets is likewise leading to a jobkilling retrenchment. Europe39。s imposition of austerity has led to heightened political conflict. Ballooning debts and feeble growth prospects for the advanced economies are reordering the investor39。s perception of risk. Noting that the . has no plan in place to stabilize and ultimately reverse the upward debt trajectory, Moody39。s in midJanuary warned that the country39。s AAA credit rating could e under pressure if debt continues to mount。 a few days later, Moody39。s upgraded Indonesia39。s rating. 雖然復(fù)蘇進(jìn)程依舊疲緩，政客們?nèi)耘f被迫縮減開(kāi)支。在英國(guó)，首相戴維?卡梅倫大幅消減預(yù)算很可能會(huì)導(dǎo)致幾十萬(wàn)人失業(yè)。在美國(guó)，國(guó)家和地方政府糟糕的預(yù)算同樣也會(huì)導(dǎo)致工作崗位的緊縮。歐洲采取的財(cái)政緊縮政策也加劇了政治沖突。日漸高磊的債臺(tái)以及發(fā)達(dá)經(jīng)濟(jì)體的疲軟經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)前景讓投資者們開(kāi)始重新審視風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。注意到美國(guó)“對(duì)于穩(wěn)定和最終扭轉(zhuǎn)不斷向上的債務(wù)曲線(xiàn)是沒(méi)有任何適合計(jì)劃的”，穆迪于一月中旬發(fā)出警告：如果債務(wù)持續(xù)攀升，國(guó)家AAA級(jí)信用評(píng)級(jí)會(huì)面臨被降級(jí)的危險(xiǎn)。幾天之后，穆迪更新了印尼的評(píng)級(jí)?！ he emerging economies face risks of their own. The most alarming is a sharp rise in inflation — a result of strong domestic growth, stimulus policies, and modity prices pumped up globally by returning demand, fears of (or actual) supply constraints and the loosemoney policies of the West. In early January, Fatih Birol, chief economist at the International Energy Agency, warned that oil prices, now over $90 a barrel, are entering a dangerous zone that could threaten the global recovery. The .39。s Food and Agriculture Organization said its foodprice index reached an alltime high in December, surpassing even the nosebleed levels of 200839。s surge. Such spiking prices for the basics people need to survive are hard enough to swallow in the developed world. Just at the point you start to see a recovery ing, you get hit by modity prices that hit people39。s ines, says Stephen King, chief economist at HSBC. In emerging markets, the fallout can be much more severe. High food prices have already contributed to the collapse of the government in Tunisia. 新興經(jīng)濟(jì)體也面臨著自己的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。最緊急的就是通貨膨脹急速加劇這是強(qiáng)勁的國(guó)內(nèi)增長(zhǎng)、刺激政策以及全球物價(jià)上漲的結(jié)果，而全球物價(jià)上漲則是由需求重返、實(shí)際供應(yīng)緊張以及西方寬松的貨幣政策導(dǎo)致的。一月初，國(guó)際能源機(jī)構(gòu)首席經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家法提赫?比羅爾發(fā)出警告：現(xiàn)在的石油價(jià)格每桶已經(jīng)超過(guò)90美元，世界經(jīng)濟(jì)正踏入一個(gè)危險(xiǎn)的區(qū)域，可能會(huì)威脅全球經(jīng)濟(jì)的復(fù)蘇。聯(lián)合國(guó)糧農(nóng)組織表示，食品價(jià)格指數(shù)在12月份達(dá)到新高，甚至超過(guò)了2008年那令人乍舌的高度。在發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家，人們生存必需品價(jià)格如此暴漲，令人非常難以接受。“就在你剛剛看到經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇的曙光的時(shí)候，你立馬被沖擊人們收入的物價(jià)敲了當(dāng)頭一棒，”匯豐銀行首席經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家史蒂芬?金如此說(shuō)道。在新興市場(chǎng)，其后果可能會(huì)更加嚴(yán)重。高物價(jià)也加劇了突尼斯政府的衰敗?！ earing the consequences, policymakers throughout the developing world have switched priorities from holding up growth to fighting inflation. In midJanuary, China raised the reserverequirement ratio — which forces banks to park more money at home for every loan they make — to a record high in an attempt to curtail credit and quell inflation, which rose at the fastest pace in two years in November. In India, raging food prices, galloping ahead by nearly 17% from a year earlier, have bee such a sensitive issue that when Pakistan temporarily cut off some exports of onions to the country, it sparked a minor diplomatic row. The same measures used to bust inflation, however, will also dampen growth. The World Bank predicts slowdowns for roaring China (from 10% growth in 2010 to % in 2011) and India (% to %). 由于擔(dān)心造成類(lèi)似的后果，發(fā)展中國(guó)家的決策者決定把優(yōu)先保持經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)轉(zhuǎn)為優(yōu)先抵抗通貨膨脹。一月中旬，中國(guó)將存款準(zhǔn)備金率上調(diào)至歷史新高強(qiáng)制銀行每放一筆貸款就必須在央行存放更多的儲(chǔ)備金，以期減少放貸、抑制通貨膨脹，通貨膨脹在十一月達(dá)到兩年來(lái)新高。在印度，瘋狂的物價(jià)較去年已飛速增長(zhǎng)了近17%，這已經(jīng)成為了非常敏感的問(wèn)題。以致于巴基斯坦在臨時(shí)縮減對(duì)印度的洋蔥出口時(shí)引發(fā)了輕微的外交爭(zhēng)執(zhí)。然而，消除通貨膨脹的措施也會(huì)抑制經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)。世界銀行預(yù)測(cè)發(fā)展迅速的中國(guó)和印度的
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