全球不平衡及其中國的對策余永定,2007年(編輯修改稿)
2025-06-17 04:39 本頁面
【文章內容簡介】 （ =FDI流入）被轉化為美元債權 ? 威廉姆森：引資國“必須把資本流入轉化為經常項目逆差” ? 儲備資產（ =雙順差的累積）的價值面臨美元下跌的威脅 ? 馬丁沃爾夫： 以 JPMan’s tradeweighted real exchange rate計，2021年以來已貶值 23%，美元貶值還遠未結束（下圖） ? 國際收支平衡的可持續(xù)性 ? 經常項目平衡 （外貿逆差 投資收入） ? 跨代資源配置 中國國際收支的特點：雙順差 500000500001000001500002021002500001982198419861988199019921994199619982000200220042006In USD Millionscurrent account FDI作為一個發(fā)展中國家，為什么中國長期保持了貿易順差 ? 正的儲蓄 投資缺口 303234363840424446481981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2021 2021% of GDPG ro s s N a t i o n a l Sa v i n g R a t e G ro s s F i x e d C a p i t a l F o rm a t i o n China’s Saving Rate and Investment Rate 經濟的周期性波動 2 3 2 . 4 2 % 7 . 0 9 % 4 6 . 4 3 % 1 4 4 . 1 9 % 2 6 . 8 3 %7 . 5 5 % 3 8 0 . 9 2 %2 3 0 . 7 7 %2 0 9 . 2 6 % 6 . 4 7 % 1 7 . 5 2 % 3 2 . 7 6 %2 5 . 9 9 %3 4 . 9 4 % 1 6 . 3 0 %2 1 7 . 4 9 %01002003004005006007008009001990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2021 2021 2021 2021 2021 2021in USD Billions 4 0 0 % 3 0 0 % 2 0 0 % 1 0 0 %0%100%200%300%% GrowthE x p o r t s I m p o r t s % G r o w t h i n T r a d e B a l a n c eEg 1993,1997 ? the socalled selfbalancing regulation ? exchange rate policy ? tax rebate ? Local governments’ special policies 政府的出口導向政策 業(yè)已形成的加工貿易的支配地位 ? China’s central place in global production works Capital, technology, equipment, hightech parts amp。 ponents Primary modities amp。 natural resources, resourcebased products Financial, mercial amp。 legal services Japan, Korea, Taiwan Asean, Australia Hong Kong, Singapore Surplus Surplus Surplus Manufacturing, processing, assembling,… turning “Made in Asia” into “Made in China” Europe USA Rest of world Surplus Surplus Surplus China: And, shipping to John Wong, EAI, NUS. 加工貿易在中國貿易順差中的作用 ? Processing trade will lead to current account surplus by definition ? Among China’s USD 102 billion trade surplus ? USD 57 billion was created by FFEs ? USD 140 billion was created by processing trade 作為一個儲蓄過剩的國家，即經常項目順差國，中國為什么吸引了如此大量的外資？ 在沒有市場扭曲的情況下，資本流入必然轉化為相應的經常項目逆差 ? 資本流入導致經常項目逆差的兩個渠道 ? 利息率渠道 ? 匯率渠道 Price of assets i Chinese assets p SUPPLY Demand 1 Demand 2 capital inflows rise in stock and real estate prices fall in the interest rate increase the investmentsaving gap （儲蓄下降，投資增加） current account deficit. Changes in the interest rate will equilibrate the demand for and supply of Chinese assets and at the same time China’s international balance of payments will be balanced, after a series of interactions among numerous variables, at a corresponding level, with increases in capital inflows and current account deficit. ? 金融市場發(fā)展的嚴重滯后 ? intermediation via the US financial market ? 資本管制 ? Capital control, it is difficult to convert the RMB funds into foreign exchanges ? 所有制因素 ? FDI is a “free lunch”. Who cares, if the payments are due in 5 to 10 years’ time? ? 財政體系 ? FDI is indispensable for increasing tax revenues at local levels ? 政績觀 ? FDI attraction is one of the most important criteria, if not the most important criterion, for good governance ? 外逃資本的回流 ? Roundtripping (HK, Virgin Islands) ? 引進國際戰(zhàn)略投資者的改革戰(zhàn)略 ? In order to the reform of stateown enterprises and mercial banks,
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