【正文】
Chinese trade and contribute lots of trade surplus. So it will be necessary to study how the exchange rate affects their trade. Secondly ,the FIEs tend to have superior market status in international market, more experience dealing with risks, more access to the world financial markets, pared with the statedowned or private enterprises in China. So it is natural to ask whether the FIEs can avoid the exchange risk as a special group. Thirdly, many Chinese FIEs take the processing trade pattern, it should be dealt with whether these characteristics of FIEs will twist the relationship between FIEs trade and exchange rate volatility. 2. The empirical analysis of exchange rate volatility impact on FIEs trade ( 1) Data description and stability test The dataset of this paper is from the period Q /1997 to Q3/2021. X is the real quarterly export amount of Chinese FIEs, deflated by the price index for Chinese export(2021=100), multiplied by RMB nominal exchange rate against dollar。我國國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值的變化將積極影響 △ ln M,而實(shí)際有效匯率 的 滯后影響是不確定的。 ( 3)分析人民幣匯率變動與外商投資企業(yè)進(jìn)口之間的關(guān)系 同樣,我用恩格爾,格蘭杰方法來分析匯率的波動和外商投資企業(yè)進(jìn)口的長期關(guān)系協(xié)整性。 方程( 9)表明外商投資企業(yè)出口主要受實(shí)際收入水平拉動 的影響 。少數(shù)有關(guān)人民幣匯率波動性和進(jìn)出口 貿(mào)易 之間的 關(guān)系的文獻(xiàn)都 得出 了人民幣匯率波動性將對出口產(chǎn)生負(fù) 面 沖擊 的結(jié)果 (Chou, 2021。據(jù)此 ,一些經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家指出 :實(shí)際有效匯率才是影響一國貿(mào)易收支的關(guān)鍵因素。因此,研究匯率變動如何 影響了他們的貿(mào)易是有必要的。但是,外商投資企業(yè)輸送貨物的目的地主要是美國或歐洲,這些國家收入的增加對促進(jìn)中國的外商投資企業(yè)出口作用日益顯 著 。中國的快速發(fā)展意味著生產(chǎn)力水平的提高和擁有吸引更多市場的進(jìn)口機(jī)會。然后,本文采用恩 格爾,格蘭杰方法來探討匯率波動和外商投資企業(yè)之間進(jìn)出口的長期和短期關(guān)系。 ine and inflow FDI. The openness degree of China can impact FIEs export positively. On the other hand, the appreciation of RMB impacts FIEs export negatively. The result prove that FDI and FIEs has tight and positive relationship, which means that large share of inflow FDI in China is exportoriented. Rodrik (2021) argues the FIEs utilize the low cost workforce, land and other benefits Chinese government offers and treat China as the processing and export base of their industrial chain. But the destination of FIEs goods is mainly US or Europe, whose national ine increase can boost China39。我國的匯率 水平對外商投資企業(yè)出口在短期內(nèi)存在著積極影響,并且已經(jīng)對外商投資企業(yè)進(jìn)口產(chǎn)生作用。然后, 在變量之間的基礎(chǔ)上分析 協(xié)整理論的短期關(guān)系。 令 ecm1,t = 219。 Y 表示中國的實(shí)際收入 ,用實(shí)際 GDP 來進(jìn)行衡量 。 Doroodian( 1999)和克魯格曼( 1989)強(qiáng)調(diào)匯率的波動性導(dǎo)致貿(mào)易中的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)增加,特別是當(dāng)貿(mào)易商無法通過金融工具來避險(xiǎn)或者避險(xiǎn)成本過高的時(shí)候。庫什曼( 1983)認(rèn)為,風(fēng)險(xiǎn)厭惡的廠商會選擇降低他們的貿(mào)易量。 M 表示中國的實(shí)際進(jìn)口額 ,用名義進(jìn)口額除以進(jìn)口價(jià)格指數(shù) (2021=100)計(jì)算得出 。在長期關(guān)系建立之后,基于協(xié)整理論和誤差修正模型( ECM),進(jìn)一步了解了短期關(guān)系。所以,他們對于一定程度的利潤轉(zhuǎn)化無動于衷。 從 短期來看,匯率波動對外商投資企業(yè)出口產(chǎn)生負(fù)面影響,除了對進(jìn)口產(chǎn)生積極影 響。s FIEs export dramatically. That explains why China witness amazing export growth rate along with the recovery of US and Europe economy for the past several years. Because the appreciation of RMB will make Chinese export goods more expensive, the export of those goods might be affected negatively. Especially, the asymmetric volatility of RMB real effective exchange rate impacts FIEs export negatively, which proves that even FIEs might have more advantages and experience to deal with the exchange rate risk, the risk of RMB will make their change their trade amount. Another cause of negative impact by the RMB risk on export flow is through the channel of RMB risk on FDI. After the longrun relationship is established, I f