經(jīng)貿(mào)專業(yè)外文翻譯---人民幣匯率傳遞的不對稱性對外商直接投資進(jìn)出口業(yè)務(wù)的影響-其他專業(yè)-wenkub
2023-01-30 02:59:22 本頁面
【正文】 lagged change. The change of Open, FDI and reer will affect △ ln X positively, the impact of lagged △ ln Y on △ ln X is ambiguous. The lagged change of RMB exchange rate volatility shows the negative coefficient, even not prominent in statistics. （ 3） Testing the relationship volatility and FIEs import between exchange rate Similarly, I use the EngleGranger method to find out the longrun cointegration relationship between exchange rate volatility and FIEs import. Because of the variable of Open and FDI are not prominent in statistics, so I eliminate these two variables in the analysis. The cointegration vector includes M ,Y ,reer V . The estimated result is as follows. Tstatistics are in parentheses. The residual of equation is proved to be stationary series tested by the ADF test, which means the variables has a longrun cointegration relationship. Equation (11) indicates that Chinese FIEs import is pulled by Chinese GDP. The fast development of China means the improved production level and more market opportunities in China, which inducing more import. The appreciation of RMB would have negative effect on Chinese FIEs import, which reflects the RMB appreciation will affect their final profits of many exportoriented FIEs. The asymmetric volatility of RMB exchange rate impacts FIEs import negatively and more severely than FIEs export. It could be still explained by the facts of prevalent processing trade pattern of FIEs and the imbalance of Chinese inner and external economy. The demand of China is insufficient, so the output rely on the world market. So they are irresponsive to the change of profit to some degree. Then I investigate the shortrun relationship based on the cointegration theory between the variables. Let ecm2,t = ine and inflow FDI. The openness degree of China can impact FIEs export positively. On the other hand, the appreciation of RMB impacts FIEs export negatively. The result prove that FDI and FIEs has tight and positive relationship, which means that large share of inflow FDI in China is exportoriented. Rodrik (2021) argues the FIEs utilize the low cost workforce, land and other benefits Chinese government offers and treat China as the processing and export base of their industrial chain. But the destination of FIEs goods is mainly US or Europe, whose national ine increase can boost China39。 M is the real quarterly import amount of Chinese FIEs, deflated by the price index for Chinese import (2021=100), multiplied by RMB nominal exchange rate against dollar。 本文沒有對 協(xié)整研究變量之間的關(guān)系 進(jìn)行分析 。外商投資企業(yè)加工貿(mào)易的依賴于進(jìn)口材料和重要 零部件加工模式，然后處理它們在海外銷售的最終市場。然后，本文采用恩 格爾，格蘭杰方法來探討匯率波動和外商投資企業(yè)之間進(jìn)出口的長期和短期關(guān)系。人民幣匯率波動其滯后性 表明它會給外商投資企業(yè)進(jìn)口在短期內(nèi)帶來積極變化。 2,t, 然后將外商投資企業(yè)誤差修正模型導(dǎo)入。由于我國需求不足，因此，輸出依 賴于世界市場。中國的快速發(fā)展意味著生產(chǎn)力水平的提高和擁有吸引更多市場的進(jìn)口機(jī)會。忽略對 開放式變量和外國直接投資的未統(tǒng)計(jì)量 的分析。表 2 顯示了 △ ln X 是由它滯后變化帶來積極影響。另一方面，它會通過對外國直接投資的人民幣風(fēng)險渠道對出口造成負(fù)面影響。但是，外商投資企業(yè)輸送貨物的目的地主要是美國或歐洲，這些國家收入的增加對促進(jìn)中國的外商投資企業(yè)出口作用日益顯 著 。目前，中國開放的程度會影響外商投資企業(yè)出口積極。檢驗(yàn)結(jié)果如下：經(jīng) ADF 檢驗(yàn)表明各變量之間有一個長期平穩(wěn)的協(xié)整關(guān)系。 二、 匯率變動對外商投資企業(yè)的貿(mào)易影響的實(shí)證分析 （ 1）進(jìn)出口方程數(shù)據(jù)的處理及平穩(wěn)性檢驗(yàn) 數(shù)據(jù)樣本期間為 1997年 1季度到 2021年 3季度 , X表示中國的實(shí)際出口額 ,用名義出口額除以出 口價格指數(shù) (2021=100)計(jì)算得出 。因此，研究匯率變動如何 影響了他們的貿(mào)易是有必
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