【正文】 、投資回收期等。 基本方案的基本數(shù)據(jù)估算表 因素 建設(shè)投資 I(萬元 ) 年銷售收入 B(萬元 ) 年經(jīng)營(yíng)成本 C(萬元 ) 期末殘值 L(萬元 ) 壽命 n(年 ) 估算值 1500 600 250 200 6 敏感性分析例題 ???????????????????????????526152610)1(550)1(350)1(15000)1)(()1()()1(ttttIRRIRRIRRIRRCLBIRRCBIRRI%%)8%9( %8 ?????IRR（ 1）計(jì)算基本方案的內(nèi)部益率 IRR： 采用試算法得 : NPV(i=8%)=（萬元） ?0， NPV(i=9%)=－ （萬元） ?0 采用線性內(nèi)插法可求得： 敏感性分析例題 （ 2）計(jì)算銷售收入、經(jīng)營(yíng)成本和建設(shè)投資變化對(duì)內(nèi)部收益率的影響，結(jié)果見下表。 概率樹分析 概率分析是通過研究各種不確定性因素發(fā)生不同變動(dòng)幅度的概率分布及其對(duì)項(xiàng)目經(jīng)濟(jì)效益指標(biāo)的影響，對(duì)項(xiàng)目可行性和風(fēng)險(xiǎn)性以及方案優(yōu)劣作出判斷的一種不確定性分析法。 Delphi Technique ? The Delphi Technique is used to derive a consensus among a panel of experts who make predictions about future developments. ? Provides independent and anonymous input regarding future events. ? Uses repeated rounds of questioning and written responses and avoids the biasing effects possible in oral methods, such as brainstorming. (Qualitative measures of consequence or impact) (Qualitative measures of likelihood or probability) A Scale of Consequence of Risks Probability and impact matrix Risk evaluation: parison of a level of risk against criteria P r o j e ct I m p a ctProbability123A cce p t a b l e r is kAn anizational risk profile EMV and Decision Tree ? Suppose that we are investing in a factory which can generate an annual ine of $900,000, but the project may result in pollution. If emission from the factory causes pollution, the project will be fined $500,000. If we build a pollutant treatment facility to ensure that there will be no pollution, we will spend an additional $270,000. The probability of pollution is . Another option is to seek help from a consultant, whose consulting fee is $5,000. If the consultant says that there is no possibility of pollution, we will not build the treatment facility, or if he says that there is the possibility, we have to build one. What should we do? Possible Decisions Using Expected Moary Value (EMV) Decisions No pollution ($) Pollution ($) Decision 1: No treatment 900,000 900,000– 500,000 = 400,000 Decision 2: Treatment 900,000 – 270,000 = 630,000 630,000 Decision 3: Consulting 900,000 – 5,000 = 895,000 900,000 – 5,000 – 270,000 = 625,000 Value of Decisions ? Decision 1 (Not to build treatment facility): EMV1=900,000? + (400,000) ?(1 – ) =$650 000 ? Decision 2 (To build treatment facility): EMV2=630 000?+630 000 ?(1 – ) =$630 000 ? Decision 3 (To hire consultant): EMV3=895 000?+625 000 ?(1 – ) =$760 000 Treat Not treat Not hire consultant $650,000 $760,000 $650,000 $760,000 Pollution No pollution $630,000 $900,000 $400,000 $895,000 $625,000 No pollution Pollution Hire consultant Decision tree (3) 模擬法 ? 也叫蒙特卡羅模擬法，反復(fù)進(jìn)行隨機(jī)抽樣的方法模擬各種隨機(jī)變量的變化，進(jìn)而通過計(jì)算了解方案經(jīng)濟(jì)效果指標(biāo)的概率分布 ? 模擬法要通過反復(fù)抽樣來模擬方案的各種隨機(jī)狀態(tài)，且樣本數(shù)需足夠大，因而計(jì)算工作量非常大，用手工計(jì)算是很困難的，一般需借助計(jì)算機(jī)進(jìn)行模擬計(jì)算 – MS Excel / CryStall Ball / risk 模擬法的實(shí)施步驟 （ 1）通過敏感性分析確定風(fēng)險(xiǎn)隨機(jī)變量； （ 2）確定風(fēng)險(xiǎn)隨機(jī)變量的概率分布； （ 3）通過隨機(jī)數(shù)表或計(jì)算機(jī)求出隨機(jī)數(shù)，根據(jù)風(fēng) 險(xiǎn)隨機(jī)變量的概率分布模擬輸入變量； （ 4）選取經(jīng)濟(jì)評(píng)價(jià)指標(biāo)，如凈現(xiàn)值、內(nèi)部收益率 （ 5）根據(jù)基礎(chǔ)數(shù)據(jù)計(jì)算評(píng)價(jià)指標(biāo)； （ 6）整理模擬結(jié)果所得評(píng)價(jià)指標(biāo)的期望值、方差、 標(biāo)準(zhǔn)差和它的概率分布及累計(jì)概率，繪制累 計(jì)概率圖，計(jì)算項(xiàng)目可行或不可行的概率?？偼顿Y 40億