【正文】 ? WE DON’T KNOW WHAT WE DON’T KNOW ? IF WE DON’T HAVE DATA, WE DON’T KNOW ? IF WE DON’T KNOW, WE CAN NOT ACT ? IF WE CAN NOT ACT, THE RISK IS HIGH ? IF WE DO KNOW AND ACT, THE RISK IS MANAGED ? IF WE DO KNOW AND DO NOT ACT, WE DESERVE THE LOSS. DR. Mikel J. Harry ? TO GET DATA WE MUST MEASURE ? DATA MUST BE CONVERTED TO INFORMATION ? INFORMATION IS DERIVED FROM DATA THROUGH STATISTICS USLT?LSL169。The National Graduate School of Quality Management v7 ? 11 UNLOCKING THE HIDDEN FACTORY VALUE STREAM TO THE CUSTOMER PROCESSES WHICH PROVIDE PRODUCT VALUE IN THE CUSTOMER?S EYES ?FEATURES OR CHARACTERISTICS THE CUSTOMER WOULD PAY FOR…. WASTE DUE TO INCAPABLE PROCESSES WASTE SCATTERED THROUGHOUT THE VALUE STREAM ? EXCESS INVENTORY ? REWORK ? WAIT TIME ? EXCESS HANDLING ? EXCESS TRAVEL DISTANCES ? TEST AND INSPECTION Waste is a significant cost driver and has a major impact on the bottom line... 169。The National Graduate School of Quality Management v7 ? 3 Day 2 Agenda ? Team Report Outs on Day 1 Material ? Central Limit Theorem ? Process Capability ? MultiVari Analysis ? Sample Size Considerations 169。The National Graduate School of Quality Management v7 ? 4 Day 3 Agenda ? Team Report Outs on Day 2 Material ? Confidence Intervals ? Control Charts ? Hypothesis Testing ? ANOVA (Analysis of Variation) ? Contingency Tables 169。The National Graduate School of Quality Management v7 ? 12 Common Six Sigma Project Areas ? Manufacturing Defect Reduction ? Cycle Time Reduction ? Cost Reduction ? Inventory Reduction ? Product Development and Introduction ? Labor Reduction ? Increased Utilization of Resources ? Product Sales Improvement ? Capacity Improvements ? Delivery Improvements 169。The National Graduate School of Quality Management v7 ? 20 WHY STATISTICS? THE ROLE OF STATISTICS IN SIX SIGMA.. ? Ignorance is not bliss, it is the food of failure and the breeding ground for loss. DR. Mikel J. Harry ? Years ago a statistician might have claimed that statistics dealt with the processing of data…. ? Today’s statistician will be more likely to say that statistics is concerned with decision making in the face of uncertainty. Bartlett USLT?LSL169。The National Graduate School of Quality Management v7 ? 28 INCENTIVE PROGRAM ? Low bead counts will be rewarded with a bonus. ? High bead counts will be punished with a reprimand. ? Your performance will be based solely on your ability to produce white beads. ? Your defect quota is no more than 7 off color beads allowed per paddle. 169。The National Graduate School of Quality Management v7 ? 36 IMPROVEMENT ROADMAP Uses of Probability Distributions Breakthrough Strategy Characterization Phase 1: Measurement Phase 2: Analysis Optimization Phase 3: Improvement Phase 4: Control ?Establish baseline data characteristics. Project Uses ?Identify and isolate sources of variation. ?Use the concept of shift drift to establish project expectations. ?Demonstrate before and after results are not random chance. 169。The National Graduate School of Quality Management v7 ? 44 COIN TOSS PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 NUMBER OF HEADS PROCESS CENTERED ON EXPECTED VALUE s SIGMA (s ) IS A MEASURE OF “SCATTER” FROM THE EXPECTED VALUE THAT CAN BE USED TO CALCULATE A PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE SIGMA VALUE (Z) CUM % OF POPULATION 58 65 72 79 86 93 100 107 114 121 128 135 142 .003 .135 1 3 0 1 2 0 1 1 0 1 0 0 9 0 8 0 7 0 6 0 0 5 0 0 4 0 0 3 0 0 2 0 0 1 0 0 0 F r e q u e n c y If we know where we are in the population we can equate that to a probability value. This is the purpose of the sigma value (normal data). % of population = probability of occurrence 169。The National Graduate School of Quality Management v7 ? 52 SO WHAT MAKES A DISTRIBUTION UNIQUE? CENTRAL TENDENCY Where a population is located. DISPERSION How wide a population is spread. DISTRIBUTION FUNCTION The mathematical formula that best describes the data (we will cover this in detail in the next module). 169。The National Graduate School of Quality Management v7 ? 59 SO WHAT’S THE BOTTOM LINE? MEAN Use on all occasions unless a circumstance prohibits its use. MEDIAN AND MODE Only use if you cannot use mean. 169。 the range, the standard deviation and the variance. 169。 the mean, the median and the mode. 169。The National Graduate School of Quality Management v7 ? 46 Probability and Statistics ? “ the odds of Colorado University winning the national title are 3 to 1” ? “Drew Bledsoe’s pass pletion percentage for the last 6 games is .58% versus .78% for the first 5 games” ? “The Senator will win the election with 54% of the popular vote with a margin of +/ 3%” ? Probability and Statistics influence our lives daily ? Statistics is the universal lanuage for science ? Statistics is the art of collecting, classifying, presenting, interpreting and analyzing numerical data, as well as making conclusions about the system from which the data was obtained. 169。The National Graduate School of Quality Management v7 ? 38 Measurements are critical... ?If we can’t accurately measure something, we really don’t know much about it. ?If we don’t know much about it, we can’t control it. ?If we can’t control it, we are at the mercy of chance. 169。The National Graduate School of Quality Management v7 ? 30 OBSERVATIONS……