【正文】 . If BIKE faces an opportunity cost of capital of 15%,when should it replace the machine? 確定條件下的投資決策－互斥項(xiàng)目 Step 1: calculate the EAC of the new machine Step 2: calculate the cost of maintain the old machine Step 3: make a parison: Replace immediately! %)151( 202210009000 808c os88 os ?????????? ?? APVE A CAPV tne wt??3375%)151(29352935%1511500%151202225003100%)151(26962696%1512500%15110004000212c o s101c o s????????????????????????d a t etd a t etFVPVFVPVYear 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 …… . Expense from replacing immediately 2860 2860 2860 2860 …… . Expense from replacing one year later 3100 2860 2860 2860 …… . Expense from replacing two year later 3100 3375 2860 2860 …… . ? 互斥項(xiàng)目設(shè)備更新決策－不對(duì)稱期限處理 確定條件下的投資決策－互斥項(xiàng)目 不確定條件的投資決策 ? 公司策略行為對(duì)凈現(xiàn)值的影響 ? Positive NPV is accepted, but what are the sources of positive NPV? Positive NPV Lower investment(outflows) Higher inflows Lower discount rate (risks) A significant part of corporate strategy analysis is seeking investment opportunities that can produce positive NPV. ? 公司策略行為對(duì)凈現(xiàn)值的影響 Strategic action to create positive NPV Introduce new product Develop core technology Create barrier to entry Introduce variation on existing products Create product differentiation Utilize anizational innovation Exploit new technology 不確定條件的投資決策 ? 公司策略行為與股票價(jià)格 Strategic actions Positive NPV Stock price rising ? 中國(guó)股市的“概念滿天飛”現(xiàn)象分析 不確定條件的投資決策 ? 增量現(xiàn)金流不確定的處理方法 Strategic action to positive NPV is uncertain Develop analytical tools to deal with uncertainty Limit the application of NPV rule ? Decision Trees（決策樹） ? Sensitivity Analysis（敏感性分析） ? Scenario Analysis（情景分析） ? BreakEven Analysis（盈虧平衡分析） ? Options（期權(quán)） Further discussion 不確定條件的投資決策 ? 增量現(xiàn)金流不確定的處理方法 方法一：決策樹 Decision Tree Date 0 Date 1 Date 2 to 5 Test and develop $ 100 Initial investment $ 1500 Production $ 900 Discount rate 15% 75% chance to test successfully test Do not test success failure invest Do not invest Do not invest invest NPV=1517 NPV=0 NPV=3611 Expected NPV1= 1517 75%+25% 0=1138, NPV0=100+1138/(1+15%)=890 Decision: to conduct the test!!! 不確定條件的投資決策 方法二： Sensitivity Analysis and Scenario Analysis Only one variable varied,others fixed Many variables varied together Variable Pessimistic Expected or Best Optimistic Market size(per year) 5000 10000 20220 Market share 20% 30% 50% Price $ million $ 2 million $ million Variable cost(per year) $ million $ 1 million $ million Fixed cost(per year) $ 1891 million $ 1791 million $ 1741 million Investment $ 1900 million $ 1500 million $ 1000 million Pessimistic Expected or Best Optimistic Market size(per year) $ 1802 $ 1517 $ 8154 Market share 696 1517 5942 Price 853 1517 2844 Variable cost(per year) 189 1517 2844 Fixed cost(per year) 1295 1517 1628 Investment 1208 1517 1903 Investment on date o,inflows from date1 to date5,depreciation 300 per year。 ? In the Baldwin Company case, we puted NPV using the following two steps: ? A) calculate the cash flow from all sources for each period ? B) calculate the NPV using the cash flows calculated above. 確定條件下的投資決策－現(xiàn)金流估算 ? 貼現(xiàn)率估算－資本成本 The Weighted Average Cost of Capital（加權(quán)平均資金成本） de RTLRLW A C C ??????? )1()1(Debts/Total Capital Cost of Equity Cost of Debts Tax rate 由于公司在稅后才向權(quán)益投資者支付股利，所以 Re是稅后報(bào)酬率 債務(wù)利息是稅前支付，有減稅作用，故 Rd前必須乘以（ 1T）以調(diào)整成稅后債務(wù)成本 資本成本在投資決策中的作用： （１）在 NPV運(yùn)用中作為折現(xiàn)率（假定項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險(xiǎn)與公司風(fēng)險(xiǎn)一致） （２）在 IRR運(yùn)用中作為基準(zhǔn)利率 確定條件下的投資決策－貼現(xiàn)率估算 ? 貼現(xiàn)率估算－資本成本 The Cost of Equity Capital（權(quán)益成本） ])([)( fmifi RRERRE ???? ?Riskfree return: longterm bonds interest rate Market return, usually represented by market index return, such as the return of Samp。 ? 投資與資本 投資決策－基本原理 Date 0 Date i 自由現(xiàn)金流 Date 1 C3 C0 C1 C2 Ci ?? ????????????? Ni iiNNrCCrCrCrCCNP V102210 )1()1(...)1()1(適用的資金成本率（最低報(bào)酬率） ? 前提條件 : 有效率資本市場(chǎng)（有效市場(chǎng)假設(shè)） ? 交易無成本 ? 可自由進(jìn)入資本市場(chǎng) ? 借入和借出資本的信息可獲得 ? 存在大量的交易者，且每一個(gè)交易者對(duì)市場(chǎng)價(jià)格均無顯著影響 ? 一個(gè)有效率的資本市場(chǎng)對(duì)凈現(xiàn)值原理的意義： ? (1)給投資者根據(jù)其偏好對(duì)消費(fèi)模式進(jìn)行跨期調(diào)整提供了可能。 machine B costs $ 600, lasts four years, maintenance expenses $ 100 per year。 (2)efficiently receive。節(jié)稅利益的存在，使得負(fù)債企業(yè)的價(jià)值及其股東權(quán)益高于無負(fù)債企業(yè)； ? Motivation Effects（經(jīng)營(yíng)激勵(lì)效應(yīng)）：當(dāng)公司增加債務(wù)時(shí)，公司的破產(chǎn)可能性增加，對(duì)債權(quán)人還本付息的現(xiàn)金流壓力會(huì)使經(jīng)理人手中的“自由現(xiàn)金”得到控制，現(xiàn)金流出的壓力會(huì)促使經(jīng)理人提高經(jīng)營(yíng)效率，以免因公司破產(chǎn)而導(dǎo)致個(gè)人的名譽(yù)、地位和收益損失。 (2) It provides information to the stockholder concerning the firm’s performance, which put an effect on stock price. 股利決策 ? 相關(guān)概念 ? Dividend Per Share (DPS，每股股利） : total dividends paid to mon shareholders ? Dividend Payment Ratio（股利支付率） : dividends paid divided by profit ( DPS/EPS) ? Dividend Yield（股票收益率） : DPS/Price ? The Process of Dividend Paying（股利發(fā)放程序） ? Declaration Date（分紅預(yù)案公布日、分紅方案批準(zhǔn)即宣告日） ? Date of Record（股權(quán)登記日） ? ExDividend Date（除息 /除權(quán)日） ? Date of Payment（送股交易日、股利發(fā)放日） ? Cash Dividend(派現(xiàn) )、 Stock Dividend(送股 )、 Private Placement (配股 )、資本公積轉(zhuǎn)增股本 ? Stock Split（股票分拆）、 Stock Repurchase（股票回購） 股利決策 ? 股利決策理論流派 ? MM Theory（ MM的股利政策無效理論） : in a perfect capital market, dividend policy cannot put an effect on the corporate value, the latter only depends on the corporate’s profitability (EBIT). ? Information Content Effect（股利政策的信息效應(yīng)理論） : for example, high dividend payment ratio usually transfers a message to the market that the firm will be operated well in the future ( not absolutely, maybe it has no positive project to invest… ) ? Clientele Effect（股東構(gòu)成理論） : under the given tax policy(different dividend tax rate and capital gain tax rate), different shareholders prefer to different dividend policy 股利決策 ? 決策因素 ? Investment Choices（投資機(jī)會(huì)） ? Earnings Stability（收入的穩(wěn)定性） ? The Ability of Financing（公司融