【正文】 Maine persisted for maximum six quarters where the state level economic recession persisted for twenty quarters. In other words in Maine 譯文 ： 區(qū)域經(jīng)濟周期和房地產(chǎn)周期分析 在過去二十年的房地產(chǎn)周期的話題，聯(lián)邦政府在地區(qū)穩(wěn)定中 發(fā)揮 的作用不僅獲得了在宏觀和微觀經(jīng)濟學(xué)領(lǐng)域，而且 還得到 金融和投 資等領(lǐng)域的關(guān)注。 Dhar and Goetzmann [15]). Securitization of the real estate market was one important trend that attracted many investors into this field. Further, now there are more investors who can participate in the global real estate market than a decade ago (Case, Goetzmann, and Rouwenhorst, [9]). Nevertheless, in recent decades the world has experienced a couple of global real estate fluctuations including recent . real estate crisis. This makes researchers and investors wonder about the structures of real estate cycles and how they are related to other economic activities in the nation as well as throughout the world. Many studies show that the real estate cycle has a direct impact on the behavior of households, investors, banking systems, as well as on the national economy (Case [8], Wheelock [35], and Barlevy [1]). Very few studies, however, have pared and analyzed national and state level business cycles with the national and regional real estate cycles. This parison is important for at least three reasons: first, the clear idea about the national and state level real estate cycle will help home owners and real estate investors minimize their losses. Second, it will help proper authorities (government, mortgage brokers, banks, etc.) to make effective decisions. Third, future researchers will have vivid understanding of states’ economic structures and better understanding of the behavior of the real estate cycles. This paper strictly focuses on macroeconomic perspective of real estate science and analyzes the patterns of real estate cycles. Thus, the study has three main objectives. First, using Markov Switching estimation technique, this study pares the . national and state level business cycles with the . national and state level real estate cycles. Second, depending on the formation of the state level real estate cycles, this study categorizes different states, and _nally it analyses the severity of the state level real estate cycles. The rest of the paper is organized as follows. First, we discuss related literatures, second we explain the data descriptions, third we provide model and methods, forth we give data description, fifth we state the results by presenting parison of business cycles and real estate cycles, thus categorize states depending on the formation of real estate cycles. To give some idea how the . states’ real estate sector converges during the different phases of the real estate cycles, in section sixth we provide a convergence analysis and finally we conclude in the section seven In the United States national business cycles are calculated and dated by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). Hamilton [20] used state space Markov Switching estimation technique on the . GDP data to estimate business cycle turning points. Hamilton’s estimated dates coincided with the dates provided by the NBER which confirms the validity of the Markov Switching estimation technique to measure business cycle turning points. Bold in [3