區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)周期和房地產(chǎn)周期分析【外文翻譯】-預(yù)覽頁(yè)
【正文】 price changes and speculation in housing market Malpezzi and Wachter [25] generated real estate cycles. They found that demand condition and speculation play major role in housing market and real estate cycles. Further, they showed that the price elasticity of supply is the dominant ponent of speculation. The largest effects of speculation were observed when supply is inelastic. Three different data sets are used in this study: 1) the . fifty states coincident indexes。 those above probability scale we called the state recession. According to the following figures, the . experienced four major national recessions13 during1979:IQ to 2020:IIIQ time periods. Two recessions were at the beginning of the 1980s, the third one was at the beginning of the 1990s, and the last one was at the beginning of the 2020. Real estate recessions are marked by the solid (curve) lines in Figure . According to the Figure , the . has experienced two major real estate recessions during 1979:IQ to 2020:IQ period. One started at 1981:IIQ and ended at 1985:IQ, and the second one started at 1989:IVQ and sustained until 1999:IIIQ. For both cases, the real estate recessions started before the national recessions, and continued several periods after the national recession ended. The result indicates that even though the real estate is one of the biggest industries in the United States, not all national recessions are due to the real estate sector fluctuation. In many cases real estate fluctuations may play an important role in some national recessions. Nevertheless, just from the Figure alone, we cannot confirm that real estate was the sole reason of two national recessions of the1980s and the 1990s. Analyzing Figure , we also observe that in the recent years, starting from 2020:IIQ, the probability of another nation wide real estate recession is very high. A downturn in real estate in 2020:IIIQ occurred on the national level and on the state level in about forty five out of fifty . states (Appendix ). However, so far only nieen states tend to have high probability of entering into state level economic recession, but there is no indication of national economic recession. This paper also found that twenty two states15 have state level real estate cycle patterns similar to the national. In other words, these twenty two states experienced two real estate recessions as the nation during the 1980s and the 1990s。此外，現(xiàn)在比十年前 更 多的投資者參與全球房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)。其次，這將有助于有關(guān)當(dāng)局（政府，抵押貸款經(jīng)紀(jì)人，銀行等）進(jìn)行有效的決策。首先，利用馬可夫開(kāi)關(guān)估計(jì)技術(shù)，這項(xiàng)研究比較了美國(guó)的國(guó)家和省級(jí)層面與美國(guó)國(guó)家和州一級(jí)房地產(chǎn)景氣循環(huán)周期。為了 了解美國(guó)各州的房地產(chǎn)部門在房地產(chǎn)周期的不同階段 如何匯集 ，第六 段 我們提供了一個(gè)收斂性分析，最后我們?cè)诘?7 節(jié)結(jié)束 。大膽 [3]比較不同經(jīng)濟(jì)周期 結(jié)果變成 美國(guó)測(cè)年法的 轉(zhuǎn)折點(diǎn)。按科龍 [14]最近的研究還估計(jì)，美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)周期的 擴(kuò)散指數(shù)基于國(guó)家級(jí)。通過(guò)使用狀態(tài)變量的實(shí)際利率，他們比較了美國(guó)和英國(guó)的房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)行為。同樣，卡諾和 DeFina 表明，利率變動(dòng)，貨幣當(dāng)局在整個(gè)地區(qū)有差別的統(tǒng)一 對(duì) 國(guó)家 產(chǎn)生了 影響。 此外，他們表現(xiàn)出的供給價(jià)格彈性是投機(jī)的主要組成部分。以下是我們?yōu)槊枋鲞@個(gè)研究 所 使用數(shù)據(jù)集。這是一個(gè) 由 國(guó)家級(jí)經(jīng)濟(jì)分析提供 的 最全面 的月度數(shù)據(jù)。對(duì) HPI 是一個(gè)單戶住宅 價(jià)格 ， 這個(gè)價(jià)格 加權(quán)平均變化重復(fù)銷售，抵押貸款違約，預(yù)付款項(xiàng)并在特定地理區(qū)域的住房負(fù)擔(dān)能力的運(yùn)動(dòng)廣泛的衡量標(biāo)準(zhǔn)。從 1979 年全國(guó)商業(yè)周期的轉(zhuǎn)折點(diǎn)和上市日期 。經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退狀態(tài)測(cè)量 0 到 1 的規(guī)模，其中 0 表示經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退的可能性為零， 1 代表經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退帶來(lái)的可能性。兩次衰退在 80 年代初，第三個(gè)是在 20 世紀(jì) 90 年代開(kāi)始，最后一個(gè)在 2020 年初了。對(duì)于這兩種情況下，房地產(chǎn)經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退開(kāi)始之前，國(guó)家經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退，并持續(xù)幾個(gè)階段后，國(guó)家經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退結(jié)束。分析圖 中，我們也發(fā)現(xiàn)，在最近幾年，從 2020 年起： IIQ，又一個(gè)全國(guó)性的房地產(chǎn)衰退的可能性非常高。換句話說(shuō)，這二十作為兩個(gè)國(guó)家在經(jīng)歷了 20 世紀(jì) 80 年代和 90 年代兩個(gè)國(guó)家的房地產(chǎn)衰退，衰退的跨度，但是， 各個(gè) 國(guó)家不相同。在圖 的國(guó)家級(jí)經(jīng)濟(jì)周期的特點(diǎn)是純紅色 line17（曲線）。美國(guó)九個(gè) 州屬于這一類。
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