區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)周期和房地產(chǎn)周期分析【外文翻譯】(文件)
【正文】 lags. In Figure the state level business cycle is marked by the solid red line17 (curve). In all three cases, the solid red line is followed by the national and state level real estate cycles which are marked by the dotted green and blue lines18 respectively. The third group is a mixture of the leading and the lagging states. This set of states sometimes faces the leading real estate cycles, and sometimes faces the lagging real estate cycle pared to these states business cycles. Nine . states19 fall into this category. In Figure : Maine, we observe that during the 1980s’ and the 2020s’, economic and real estate fluctuations, the real estate cycle followed the state level business cycle with four and twenty quarters lags respectively. The 1980s the real estate recession in Maine persisted for maximum six quarters where the state level economic recession persisted for twenty quarters. In other words in Maine 譯文 ： 區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)周期和房地產(chǎn)周期分析 在過(guò)去二十年的房地產(chǎn)周期的話題，聯(lián)邦政府在地區(qū)穩(wěn)定中 發(fā)揮 的作用不僅獲得了在宏觀和微觀經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)領(lǐng)域，而且 還得到 金融和投 資等領(lǐng)域的關(guān)注。 2) the housing price indexes for the fifty . states and the nation。 Dhar and Goetzmann [15]). Securitization of the real estate market was one important trend that attracted many investors into this field. Further, now there are more investors who can participate in the global real estate market than a decade ago (Case, Goetzmann, and Rouwenhorst, [9]). Nevertheless, in recent decades the world has experienced a couple of global real estate fluctuations including recent . real estate crisis. This makes researchers and investors wonder about the structures of real estate cycles and how they are related to other economic activities in the nation as well as throughout the world. Many studies show that the real estate cycle has a direct impact on the behavior of households, investors, banking systems, as well as on the national economy (Case [8], Wheelock [35], and Barlevy [1]). Very few studies, however, have pared and analyzed national and state level business cycles with the national and regional real estate cycles. This parison is important for at least three reasons: first, the clear idea about the national and state level real estate cycle will help home owners and real estate investors minimize their losses. Second, it will help proper authorities (government, mortgage brokers, banks, etc.) to make effective decisions. Third, future researchers will have vivid understanding of states’ economic structures and better understanding of the behavior of the real estate cycles. This paper strictly focuses on macroeconomic perspective of real estate science and analyzes the patterns of real estate cycles. Thus, the study has three main objectives. First, using Markov Switching estimation technique, this study pares the . national and state level business cycles with the . national and state level real estate cycles. Second, depending on the formation of the state level real estate cycles, this study categorizes different states, and _nally it analyses the severity of the state level real estate cycles. The rest of the paper is organized as follows. First, we discuss related literatures, second we explain the data descriptions, third we provide model and methods, forth we give data
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