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【正文】 2023 Prentice Hall, Inc. All rights reserved. * Problems and Decisions ? Structured Problems ?Involve goals that clear, ?Are familiar (have occurred before), ?Are easily and pletely defined—information about the problem is available and plete, ? Programmed Decision ?A repetitive decision that can be handled by a routine approach. 16 Copyright 169。 2023 Prentice Hall, Inc. All rights reserved. * DecisionMaking Biases and Errors ? Heuristics ?Using “rules of thumb” to simplify decision making. ? Overconfidence Bias ?Holding unrealistically positive views of one’s self and one’s performance. ? Immediate Gratification Bias ?Choosing alternatives that offer immediate rewards and that to avoid immediate costs. 24 Copyright 169。 19:44:0519:44:0519:441/23/2023 7:44:05 PM 1以我獨(dú)沈久，愧君相見(jiàn)頻。 , January 23, 2023 很多事情努力了未必有結(jié)果，但是不努力卻什么改變也沒(méi)有。 下午 7時(shí) 44分 5秒 下午 7時(shí) 44分 19:44: 楊柳散和風(fēng)，青山澹吾慮。 2023年 1月 下午 7時(shí) 44分 :44January 23, 2023 1業(yè)余生活要有意義，不要越軌。 19:44:0519:44:0519:44Monday, January 23, 2023 1知人者智，自知者明。 :44:0519:44:05January 23, 2023 1意志堅(jiān)強(qiáng)的人能把世界放在手中像泥塊一樣任意揉捏。 2023年 1月 23日星期一 下午 7時(shí) 44分 5秒 19:44: 1比不了得就不比，得不到的就不要。 2023 Prentice Hall, Inc. All rights reserved. * Decision Making for Today’s World ? Guidelines for making effective decisions: ?Know when it’s time to call it quits. ?Practice the five “whys”. ?Be an effective decision maker. ? Habits of highly reliable anizations (HROs) ?Are not tricked by their success. ?Defer to the experts on the front line. ?Let unexpected circumstances provide the solution. ?Embrace plexity ?Anticipate, but also anticipate their limits 28 Copyright 169。 2023 Prentice Hall, Inc. All rights reserved. * DecisionMaking Conditions ? Certainty ?A ideal situation in which a manager can make an accurate decision because the oute of every alternative choice is known. ? Risk ?A situation in which the manager is able to estimate the likelihood (probability) of outes that result from the choice of particular alternatives. 20 Copyright 169。 2023 Prentice Hall, Inc. All rights reserved. * Step 8: Evaluating the Decision’s Effectiveness ? The soundness of the decision is judged by its outes. ?How effectively was the problem resolved by outes resulting from the chosen alternatives? ?If the problem was not resolved, what went wrong? 12 Copyright 169。 2023 Prentice Hall, Inc. All rights reserved. * L E A R N I N G O U T L I N E (cont’d) Follow this Learning Outline as you read and study this chapter. The Managers as Decision Maker (cont’d) ? Explain maximax, maximin, and minimax decision choice approaches. ? Describe the four decision making styles. ? Discuss the twelve decisionmaking biases managers may exhibit. ? Describe how manager can deal with the negative effects of decision errors and biases. ? Explain the managerial decisionmaking model. Decision Making for Today’s World ? Describe today’s decisionmaking environ
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