供應(yīng)鏈不匹配成本ppt課件-文庫吧在線文庫
【正文】 ld. ? Expected left over inventory（期望售后剩余庫存） ? The average number of units left over at the end of the season. ? Expected profit ? Expected fill rate （期望訂單完成率） ? The fraction of demand that is satisfied immediately ? Instock probability（存貨滿足概率） ? Probability all demand is satisfied ? Stockout probability（缺貨概率） ? Probability some demand is lost Slide ??， formula ? Expected sales = m Expected lost sales ? m : Expected demand ? L(z): loss function (標(biāo)準(zhǔn)正態(tài) )損失函數(shù) , ? 隨機(jī)變量超過一個(gè)固定值的期望值之和。 Slide ??， 不同的不匹配成本與運(yùn)營管理模式 ? MTS—報(bào)童模型 ? 不匹配成本為過量或不足， ? MTS適合于關(guān)鍵比例高、需求變動(dòng)小 ? MTO—排隊(duì)系統(tǒng) ? 不匹配成本為生產(chǎn)閑置、顧客排隊(duì) ? MTO適合于短途運(yùn)輸、短提前期、機(jī)器或勞動(dòng)力便宜 ? 中間狀態(tài)為使用反應(yīng)性能力進(jìn)行快速響應(yīng) ? 兩種反應(yīng)性能力： ? 第二次訂購能力無限但較第一次訂購昂貴的反應(yīng)性能力 ? 第二次訂購能力有限的反應(yīng)性能力 Slide ??， Some . airline industry observations ? Since deregulation (1978) 137 carriers have filed for bankruptcy. ? From 9599 (the industry’s best 5 years ever) airlines earned cents on each dollar of sales: ? The US average for all industries is around 6 cents. ? From 9099 the industry earned 1 cent per $ of sales. ? Carriers typically fill % of seats and have a breakeven load of %. Slide ??， Matching supply to demand when supply is fixed ? Examples of fixed supply: ? Travel industries (fixed number of seats, rooms, cars, etc). ? Advertising time (limited number of time slots). ? Telemunications bandwidth. ? Size of the MBA program. ? Doctor’s availability for appointments. ? Revenue management is a solution: ? If adjusting supply is impossible – adjust the demand! ? Segment customers into high willingness to pay and low willingness to pay. ? Limit the number of tickets sold at a low price, ., control the average price by changing the mix of customers. Slide ??， Revenue management and margin arithmetic ? Small changes in revenue can have a big impact on profit, especially for high gross margin and low profit % industries: Slide ??， Environments suitable for revenue management ? The same unit of capacity (., airline seat) can be used to deliver services to different customer segments (., business and leisure customers) at different prices. ? High gross margins (so that the variable cost of additional sales is low). ? Perishable capacity (it cannot be stored) and limited capacity (all possible customers cannot always be served). ? Capacity is sold in advance of demand. ? There is an opportunity to segment customers (so that different prices can be charged) and different segments are willing to pay different prices. ? It is not illegal or morally irresponsible to discriminate among customers. Slide ??， Revenue Management: Booking limits and protection levels 預(yù)定限額和保留水平 Slide ??， Practical problem ? The Park Hyatt Philadelphia at the Bellevue. ? 118 King/Queen rooms. ? Hyatt offers a rL= $159 (low fare) discount fare for a midweek stay targeting leisure travelers. ? Regular fare is rH= $225 (high fare) targeting business travelers.
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