【正文】 h more at the process that results (or does not result) in accidents. Therefore, it is better to regard the critical event in traffic as his object of study. One of the major problems in the study of the traffic process that results in accidents is, that the actual occurrence is hardly ever observed by the researcher. Investigating a traffic accident, he will try to reconstruct the event from indirect sources such as the information given by the road users involved, or by eyewitnesses, about the circumstances, the characteristics of the vehicles, the road and the drivers. As such this is not unique in science, there are more examples of an indirect study of the object of research. However, a second difficulty is, that the object of research cannot be evoked. Systematic research by means of controlled experiments is only possible for aspects of the problem, not for the problem itself. The bination of indirect observation and lack of systematic control make it very difficult for the investigator to detect which factors, under what circumstances cause an accident. Although the researcher is primarily interested in the process leading to accidents, he has almost exclusively information about the consequences, the product of it, the accident. Furthermore, the context of accidents is plicated. Generally speaking, the following aspects can be distinguished: Given the state of the traffic system, traffic volume and position, the manoeuvres of the road users, their speeds, the weather conditions, the condition of the road, the vehicles, the road users 交通事故分析的可能性和局限性 10 and their interactions, accidents can or cannot be prevented. Given an accident, also depending on a large number of factors, such as the speed and mass of vehicles, the collision angle, the protection of road users and their vulnerability, the location of impact etc., injuries are more or less severe or the material damage is more or less substantial. Although these aspects cannot be studied independently, from a theoretical point of view it has advantages to distinguish the number of situations in traffic that are potentially dangerous, from the probability of having an accident given such a potentially dangerous situation and also from the resulting oute, given a particular accident. This conceptual framework is the general basis for the formulation of risk regarding the decisions of individual road users as well as the decisions of controllers at higher levels. In the mathematical formulation of risk we need an explicit description of our probability space, consisting of the elementary events (the situations) that may result in accidents, the probability for each type of event to end up in an accident, and finally the particular oute, the loss, given that type of accident. A different approach is to look at binations of accident characteristics, to find critical factors. This type of analysis may be carried out at the total group of accidents or at subgroups. The accident itself may be the unit of research, but also a road, a road location, a road design (. a roundabout) etc. 。 Limitations。 這個(gè)概念框架是對(duì)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的關(guān)于個(gè)別道路使用者，以及上級(jí)的決定控制器的決定制定的一般基礎(chǔ)。但是，第二個(gè)困難是，該研究 的對(duì)象不能被誘發(fā)。所需的基本信息包括事故數(shù)字，來形容不安全總額，暴露的數(shù)據(jù)來計(jì)算風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，并找到一個(gè)高風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的情況下或（團(tuán)體）道路使用者。例如，在卡方分割使 人們有可能以測(cè)試有關(guān)行參數(shù)的線性或二次限制或趨勢(shì)的不連續(xù)性。 該測(cè)試應(yīng)用推廣到高階分類。沒有任何更多的必要計(jì)算，但測(cè)試統(tǒng)計(jì)， 需要利用 表繪制。為這樣一個(gè)測(cè)試應(yīng)用程序的必要條件是，那意外的數(shù)字進(jìn)行比較是大到 足以證明存在的分歧。概率理論 能夠 3 3 考慮到 這 兩個(gè)觀察 值的平均， 用于計(jì)算的平等假設(shè)的可能性。然而，假設(shè)需要很長(zhǎng)一段時(shí)間并 且沒有緩繳期。 兩個(gè)簡(jiǎn)單的假設(shè)通常是來描述交通 事故的形成過程： 事故發(fā)生的概率與以往發(fā)生的事故之間是獨(dú)立； 事故發(fā)生在時(shí)間上是同性質(zhì)的 如果這兩個(gè)假設(shè)成立，那么事故是泊松分布。希望從中得到關(guān)于每次事故的詳細(xì)信息并能發(fā)現(xiàn)其發(fā)生的原因和有關(guān)的條件。 雖然這個(gè)周期可以由同一人或一群人做出來，而問題在每個(gè)階段（政治 /管理或科學(xué)）都有不同的背景。 如果停著的綠色車能夠在五分鐘內(nèi)消失 ， 這兩輛車可能就不會(huì)相撞 。由這些經(jīng)驗(yàn)推導(dǎo)出的哲學(xué)思考就像通過研究和統(tǒng)計(jì)得出的實(shí)踐觀點(diǎn)。關(guān)注 。限制 。 1．簡(jiǎn)介 本文主要是基于個(gè)人的經(jīng)驗(yàn)，研究有關(guān)交通安全、安全分析以及事故分析等在研究中的作用。目前這個(gè) 事故 中 沒有騎自行車或行人在擁擠路口分散他的注意。 應(yīng) 該用下面的步驟來加以區(qū)分： —— 檢測(cè)交通安全問題； 交通事故分析的可能性和局限性 2 —— 描述問題和它的主要特征； —— 分析其原因分析和改進(jìn)建議； —— 選擇和執(zhí)行安全措施； —— 評(píng)價(jià)所采取的措施。 研究人員研究事故發(fā)生時(shí)一連串事件中每個(gè)人的興趣。 2． 事故的性質(zhì)和它們的統(tǒng)計(jì)特性 事故基本概念是意外，不管是其發(fā)生的原因還是 引起事故出現(xiàn)的過程。穿越空間或在不同地點(diǎn)發(fā)生的的事故同樣具有可能性。這一假設(shè)可以通過估算進(jìn)行測(cè)試的兩個(gè) 觀測(cè)值的基礎(chǔ)上（估計(jì)是兩個(gè)值的平均值）的速度參數(shù)。由于主要關(guān)注的是，以減少意外的發(fā)生，這種分析可能導(dǎo)致對(duì)治療中最有前 途的領(lǐng)域。一旦均值和方差的正態(tài)分布，給出了所有的測(cè) 試可以改寫了標(biāo)準(zhǔn)零均值和方差的正態(tài)分布條件。我們將討論這個(gè)事故類型分析更詳細(xì)的內(nèi)容。 投入更多關(guān)注的是參 數(shù)估計(jì)。它會(huì)嘗試檢測(cè)安全問題需要特別注意。因此這不是科學(xué)獨(dú)特的，也有一個(gè)間接的研究對(duì)象的研究更多的例子。雖然這些方面不能獨(dú)立研究從理論的角度看，它也從由此產(chǎn)生的結(jié)