【正文】 護(hù)，傷害是嚴(yán)重或或多或少物質(zhì)損失是多還是少可觀。雖然這些方面不能獨(dú)立研究從理論的角度看，它也從由此產(chǎn)生的結(jié)果的優(yōu)勢(shì)，區(qū)分交通情況有潛在危險(xiǎn)的數(shù)字，是由有一個(gè)意外的可能性，在這種潛在的危險(xiǎn)局勢(shì)，給定一個(gè)特定事故。 這個(gè)概念框架是對(duì)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的關(guān)于個(gè)別道路使用者，以及上級(jí)的決定控制器的決定制定的一般基礎(chǔ)。在風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的數(shù)學(xué)公式，我們需要一個(gè)明確的概率空間的介紹，基本事件（的情況），可能導(dǎo)致事故組成，每個(gè)類型的事件的概率，最終收在一次事故中，最后的具體成果，損失，鑒于事故的類型。 另一種方 法是看事故特征組合， 然后 找出關(guān)鍵因素。這種類型的 事故 分析 是通過分析事故的共組或子群來開展 。事故本身 是一個(gè)研究的單位 ， 但也要研究 道路 因素： 道路位置，道路設(shè)計(jì)（如一個(gè) 彎道 ）等 。 原文出處： SWOV institute for road safety research Leidschendam（ 會(huì)議記錄 ），記錄者， . 5 5 POSSIBILITIES AND LIMITATIONS OF ACCIDENT ANALYSIS Keyword： Consequences。 purposes。 describe。 Limitations。 concerned。 Accident Analysis。 possibilities Abstraet： Accident statistics, especially collected at a national level are particularly useful for the description, monitoring and prognosis of accident developments, the detection of positive and negative safety developments, the definition of safety targets and the (product) evaluation of long term and large scale safety measures. The application of accident analysis is strongly limited for problem analysis, prospective and retrospective safety analysis on newly developed traffic systems or safety measures, as well as for (process) evaluation of special short term and small scale safety measures. There is an urgent need for the analysis of accidents in real time, in bination with background behavioural research. Automatic incident detection, bined with video recording of accidents may soon result in financially acceptable research. This type of research may eventually lead to a better understanding of the concept of risk in traffic and to wellestablished theories. 1. Introduction. This paper is primarily based on personal experience concerning traffic safety, safety research and the role of accidents analysis in this research. These experiences resulted in rather philosophical opinions as well as more practical viewpoints on research methodology and statistical analysis. A number of these findings are published already elsewhere. From this lack of direct observation of accidents, a number of methodological problems arise, leading to continuous discussions about the interpretation of findings that cannot be tested directly. For a fruitful discussion of these methodological problems it is very informative to look at a real accident on video. It then turns out that most of the relevant information used to explain the accident will be missing in the accident record. Indepth studies also cannot recollect all the data that is necessary in order to test hypotheses about the occurrence of the a particular carcar accident, that was recorded on video at an urban intersection in the Netherlands, between a car ing from a minor road, colliding with a car on the major road, the following questions could be asked:Why did the driver of the car ing from the minor road, suddenly accelerate after ing almost to a stop and hit the side of the car from the left at the main road? Why was the approaching car not noticed? Was it because the driver was preoccupied with the two cars ing from the right and the gap before them that offered him the possibility to cross? Did he look left before, but was his view possibly blocked by the green van parked at the corner? Certainly the traffic situation was not plicated. At the moment of the accident there were no 交通事故分析的可能性和局限性 6 bicyclists or pedestrians present to distract his attention at the regularly overcrowded intersection. The parked green van disappeared within five minutes, the two other cars that may have been important left without a trace. It is hardly possible to observe traffic behaviour under the most relevant condition of an accident occurring, because accidents are very rare events, given the large number of trips. Given the new video equipment and the recent developments in automatic incident and accident detection, it bees more and more realistic to collect such data at not too high costs. Additional to this type of data that is most essential for a good understanding of the risk increasing factors in traffic, it also important to look at normal traffic behaviour as a reference base. The question about the possibilities and limitations of accident analysis is not lightly answered. We cannot speak unambiguously about accident analysis. Accident analysis covers a whole range of