【正文】 rating relationship, the disturbances are not stationary. Possibility of instability has been established in the theoretical section. Here we have the empirical results, which can indicate instability. This can be done by coefficients of the normalized cointegrating vectors, which are greater than unity. For the entire sample period the effect of capital outflows on the real exchange rate change is a 12 percent increase, implying depreciating Turkish currency against the dollar, as in Table 1. A 42 percent rise in stock market prices for a unit increase of capital inflows can also be observed. During the crisis period 199599, a one percent increase in capital inflows led to appreciation of 44 percent (or preventing further depreciation) in the real exchange rate and a 123 percent increase in the stock market prices (Table 2). Overvaluing in the stock market might have been interpreted as a sign of impending future exchange rate crisis, with reversal of the capitalflows (that is, outflows of capital).This is exactly what happened in November 2020 and February 2020. 譯文 ： 資本流入新興市場土耳其 摘要 ： 金融市場全球化的發(fā)展意味著，在國內(nèi)股市外資持股占所有股份的比例一直在上升。即一個意外的資本流出肯定會導(dǎo)致匯率的波動，國際收支問題，以及國際債務(wù)危機。其他危機理論 危機包括外部事件沖擊 [克魯格曼等人 .， 1979]，內(nèi)部變量的假設(shè) [Obstfelt， 1995]。 本文堅持的觀點是，國內(nèi)股票市場股價未來的價格 波動的可能性大小是密切與外資持股比例相關(guān)的。國際收支平衡的約束是： H=∏ T+H(1+234。外國投資者擁有國內(nèi)股市股票的比例越大，國內(nèi)經(jīng)濟越具有脆弱性。 實證研究使用實際匯率，實際股市動態(tài)變量指數(shù)和外資流入量。自 1996 年以來，外國的投資速率已經(jīng)增長十分迅速。這個結(jié)構(gòu) VAR模型，讓它去克服了 VAR 模型的 識別問題估計。但是，實際匯率（ EXCCPI）及實質(zhì)股票市場收益與趨勢變量（ STOCKP）都沒有無論是全部和最終期限百分之信心。特征值的變量是20以下滯后的（一個月）。這里能通過協(xié)整檢驗來進行分析，看那些是一致的。 導(dǎo)師評語： 簽字： 年 月 。不穩(wěn)定的可能性已被確立 為了理論部分。 長期來看從宏觀經(jīng)濟理論推導(dǎo)出的關(guān)系是基于生產(chǎn)，消費，利率平價和外部平衡。對單位根的假設(shè)不能被拒絕的兩個變量。實際外匯匯率、股價指數(shù)、和國際債務(wù)變量使用，以涉及到理論。這是值得指出的是在自 1989 年起實施的開放外匯政策下，導(dǎo)致外國投資者盡可能按自己的意愿自由購買和出售在伊斯坦布爾股票市場。Gaziogln 和麥考斯蘭（ 2020； 2020； 2020）表明，在外國擁有高比例的股票所有權(quán)在資本流入和流出時對匯率和國際債務(wù)的效果不對稱?，F(xiàn)在看來，國內(nèi)經(jīng)濟對的外國投資在股市上的水平是非常敏感的。 Ramsey， 1928）。近期Borensztein （ 2020） 和 Lane MilesiFerretti （ 2020）通過國際貨幣基金組織文件強調(diào)其實際中的匯率和債務(wù)相聯(lián)系理論的重要性。 在金融危機的地區(qū)人們已經(jīng)做了許多工研究，包括約翰遜等人。這意味著，股票市場的股價指數(shù)是另一個迫使金融危機發(fā)生的強勁指標(biāo)。 2020。本科畢業(yè)論文外文翻譯 外文題目： Capital Flows to an Emerging Market in Turkey 出 處： International Advances in Economic Research, 2020, Volume 9, Number 3, Pages 189195 作 者： Saziye Gazioglu 原文 ： Capital Flows to an Emerging Market in Turkey Abstract Increased gIobalization in financial markets implies that the percentage of all shares under foreign ownership in domestic stock markets has been rising. Speculative attacks on the foreign exchange market in February 2020 led to deep economic crisis in article will explore various indicators of the financial crisis in Turkey based on a macromodel. The foreign share of the domestic economy is a key variable to establish the degree of vulnerability during a financial crisis. An empirical investigation shows that the percentage of shares owned by foreigners on the Istanbul Stock Exchange (ISE) has been increasing since 1995 and is currently about 50 percent of the total. Furthermore,the general index of stock market prices in 1999 was at its highest level since would impl