外文翻譯---資本流入新興市場土耳其-全文預(yù)覽
【正文】 from 10/26/1995 11/26/1999). The resultshshow that the rank of the cointegrating vector is at most two. This implies that there are two cointegrating vectors and one stochastic trend. The author reports the two cointegrating vectors in normalized form. Since the three variables do not have a cointegrating relationship, the disturbances are not stationary. Possibility of instability has been established in the theoretical section. Here we have the empirical results, which can indicate instability. This can be done by coefficients of the normalized cointegrating vectors, which are greater than unity. For the entire sample period the effect of capital outflows on the real exchange rate change is a 12 percent increase, implying depreciating Turkish currency against the dollar, as in Table 1. A 42 percent rise in stock market prices for a unit increase of capital inflows can also be observed. During the crisis period 199599, a one percent increase in capital inflows led to appreciation of 44 percent (or preventing further depreciation) in the real exchange rate and a 123 percent increase in the stock market prices (Table 2). Overvaluing in the stock market might have been interpreted as a sign of impending future exchange rate crisis, with reversal of the capitalflows (that is, outflows of capital).This is exactly what happened in November 2020 and February 2020. 譯文 ： 資本流入新興市場土耳其 摘要 ： 金融市場全球化的發(fā)展意味著，在國內(nèi)股市外資持股占所有股份的比例一直在上升。 2020]. If the percentage of shares under foreign ownership in the domestic stock market increases, debt in the domestic economy increases, which is analogous to selling the family silver. It would seem the domestic economy is very sensitive to the level of foreign investment in the stock market. How severely a foreign shock affects the domestic market will be directly related to the percentage of shares under foreign ownership. The bigger the share of foreign investors in the domestic stock market, the greater the vulnerability of the domestic economy. The Asian crisis can be considered to be in this category. Whether other emerging financial markets bee similarly vulnerable depends, likewise, on the percentage of shares under foreign ownership in the domestic market. The dynamics of the whole system may be summarized 3 in matrix form by: where the signs of the elements of the matrix are, from the discussion above: EE＞ 0，EH＜ 0， EV＞ 0 and EK＜ 0； HE＜ 0， HH＜ 0， HV＜ 0 and HK＞ 0； VE＜ 0， VH＞ 0， VV＜ 0，and VK＞ 0。 Ramse~% 1928]. Following Obstfeld and Rogoff [1995], the stock market constraint is as follows: VdXd=XdVd+XdDd Equation (1) states 1 that a change in the proportion (Xd) of the value of domestic firms 2 that domestic individuals own (that is, shares: the value of domestic claims to the total future profits of domestic firms, Vd), XdVd, is equal to the domestic proportion of the change in the stock market valuation of these shares, XdVd plus their proportion of dividends, XdVd. The balance of payments constraint is: H=∏ T+H(1+234。 2020], with a profit maximizing firm and a representative domestic consumer maximizing time separable utility functions IObstfeld and Rogoff, 1995。 2020。 2020] show that having a high percentage of shares under foreign ownership has an asymmetrical effect on exchan
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