經(jīng)貿(mào)專業(yè)外文翻譯---人民幣匯率傳遞的不對稱性對外商直接投資進(jìn)出口業(yè)務(wù)的影響-其他專業(yè)(存儲(chǔ)版)
【正文】 ut the longrun cointegration relationship between exchange rate volatility and FIEs import. Because of the variable of Open and FDI are not prominent in statistics, so I eliminate these two variables in the analysis. The cointegration vector includes M ,Y ,reer V . The estimated result is as follows. Tstatistics are in parentheses. The residual of equation is proved to be stationary series tested by the ADF test, which means the variables has a longrun cointegration relationship. Equation (11) indicates that Chinese FIEs import is pulled by Chinese GDP. The fast development of China means the improved production level and more market opportunities in China, which inducing more import. The appreciation of RMB would have negative effect on Chinese FIEs import, which reflects the RMB appreciation will affect their final profits of many exportoriented FIEs. The asymmetric volatility of RMB exchange rate impacts FIEs import negatively and more severely than FIEs export. It could be still explained by the facts of prevalent processing trade pattern of FIEs and the imbalance of Chinese inner and external economy. The demand of China is insufficient, so the output rely on the world market. So they are irresponsive to the change of profit to some degree. Then I investigate the shortrun relationship based on the cointegration theory between the variables. Let ecm2,t =并且， 我國應(yīng) 采取措施改變貿(mào)易格局， 采用 更合理的方法來減少貿(mào)易盈余。人民幣升值對外商投資企業(yè)出口的影響比進(jìn)口更為嚴(yán)重。 表 3 指出 △ ln M是由它自身滯后性而產(chǎn)生負(fù)面影響的。人民幣匯率波動(dòng)不對稱性對外商投資企業(yè) 的 進(jìn)口比出口影響的負(fù)面性更嚴(yán)重。人民幣匯率變動(dòng)的滯后系數(shù)的變化表明，負(fù)面效應(yīng)并不突出。人民幣升值將使中國出口產(chǎn)品價(jià)格更昂貴，這類產(chǎn)品的出口可能受到負(fù)面影響。 *號表示 5%的置信度下拒絕原假設(shè)。因此，很自然地 想知道 外商投資企業(yè)作為一個(gè)特殊群體是否 有 避免匯率風(fēng)險(xiǎn) 的能力 。 有關(guān)人民幣匯率對貿(mào)易的影響也是近年來的研究熱點(diǎn) ,但大多集中在考察匯率水平值對進(jìn)出口總量和貿(mào)易收支的影響方面 ,考察 其 波動(dòng)性對貿(mào)易影響的 研究相對較少。他們認(rèn)為貨幣當(dāng)局應(yīng)擴(kuò)大人民幣匯率的波幅 ,并預(yù)計(jì) 其 擴(kuò)大將導(dǎo)致匯率在雙邊波動(dòng)的情況下加速升值。因此上述局面形成的主要原因是人民幣實(shí)際有效匯率在匯改后并未顯著升值 ,貨幣當(dāng)局應(yīng)進(jìn)一步關(guān)注人民幣實(shí)際有效匯率的變動(dòng)。 Cote(1994)在一篇綜述性文章中給出的結(jié)論認(rèn)為 :無論是從總量還是從雙邊貿(mào)易上看 ,大量的研究并不能給出匯率波動(dòng)性同貿(mào)易之間明確的系統(tǒng)關(guān)系。其次，相對于中國的既定國有或民營企業(yè)，外商投資企業(yè)往往在國際金融市場上擁有更多處理風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的經(jīng)驗(yàn)和市場地位。括號中的值為 t 統(tǒng)計(jì)量 說明：表中的 ADF 檢驗(yàn)的最大滯后階數(shù)為 12, (n, nt, c)表示 (滯后階數(shù) ,無趨勢項(xiàng) ,有截距 )的檢驗(yàn)形式 , (n, nt, nc)表示 (滯后階數(shù) ,無趨勢項(xiàng) ,無截距 )的檢驗(yàn)形式 ,其中的滯后階數(shù)是根據(jù) SBC 準(zhǔn)則所確定的。這解釋了為什么中國隨著美國和歐洲的經(jīng)濟(jì)在過去數(shù)年出口增長速度驚人。改革開 放以來，外國直接投資和實(shí)際有效匯率變化對于 △ lnX積極方面，或者 △ lnX 對 △ lnY 的滯后影響是模糊的。人民幣升值會(huì)對中國的外商投資企業(yè)進(jìn)口產(chǎn)生消極影響，它反映了人民幣升值將影響許多出口導(dǎo)向型外商投資企業(yè)其最終利潤產(chǎn)生負(fù)面影響。 令 n=4，并使用 OLS 法估計(jì)函數(shù)，然后從一般遵循的方法得到最終結(jié)果（見表 3）。 從長期 來看，人民幣匯率的匯率水平對外商投資企業(yè)出口和進(jìn)口都會(huì)產(chǎn)生負(fù)面影響。 總之，我國政府可能會(huì)逐漸減緩對擴(kuò)大人民幣匯率每日波 動(dòng)幅度，避免誘使陷 入高風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的經(jīng)濟(jì)體系。s FIEs export dramatically. That explains why China witness amazing export growth rate along with the recovery of US and Europe economy for the past several years. Because the appreciation of RMB will make Chinese export goods more expensive, the export of those goods might be affected negatively. Especially, the asymmetric volatility of RMB real effective exchange rate impacts FIEs export negatively, which proves that even FIEs might have more advantages and experience to deal with the exchange rate risk, the risk of RMB will make their change their trade amount. Another cause of negative impact by the RMB risk on export flow is through the channel of RMB risk on FDI. After the longrun relationship is esta
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