【正文】 詳情請看最后一頁附錄附錄1：2007年度數(shù)據(jù)輸出結果模型非標準化系數(shù)標準系數(shù)B標準 誤差試用版tSig.1(常量)X1X2X3X4X5X6X7X82(常量)X1X2X3X4X5X7X83(常量)X1X2X4X5X7X8續(xù)附表14(常量)X1X2X4X5X75(常量)X1X2X4X5a. 因變量：Y附錄2：2008年度數(shù)據(jù)輸出結果模型非標準化系數(shù)標準系數(shù)B標準 誤差試用版tSig.1(常量)X1X2X3X4X5X6X7X82(常量)X1X2X3X4X5X6X83(常量)X1X2X3X4X5X64(常量)X1X2X3X4X55(常量)X1X2X4X5a. 因變量：Y附錄3：I. The Valuation of Securities, Leverage, and the Cost of Capital A. The Capitalization Rate for Uncertain Streams As a starting point, consider an economy in which all physical assets are owned by corporations. For the moment, assume that these corporations can finance their assets by issuing mon stock only；the introduction of bond issues, or their equivalent, as a source of corporate funds is postponed until the next part of this section. The physical assets held by each firm will yield to the owners of the firmits stockholdersa stream of profits over time；but the elements of this series need not be constant and in any event are uncertain. This stream of ine, and hence the stream accruing to any share of mon stock, will be regarded as extending indefinitely into the future. We assume, however, that the mean value of the stream over time, or average profit per unit of time, is finite and represents a random variable subject to a (subjective) probability distribution. We shall refer to the average value over time of the stream accruing to a given share as the return of that share；and to the mathematical expectation of this average as the expected return of the share. Although individual investors may have different views as to the shape of the probability distribution of the return of any share, we shall assume for simplicity that they are at least in agreement as to the expected return.This way of characterizing uncertain streams merits brief ment. Notice first that the stream is a stream of profits, not dividends. As will bee clear later, as long as management is presumed to be acting in the best interests of the stockholders, retained earnings can be regarded as equivalent to a fully subscribed, preemptive issue of mon stock. Hence, for present purposes, the division of the stream between cash dividends and retained earnings in any period is a mere detail. Notice also that the uncertainty attaches to the mean value over time of the stream of profits and should not be confused with variability over time of the successive elements of the stream. That variability and uncertainty are two totally different concepts should be clear from the fact that the elements of a stream can be variable even though known with certainty. It can be shown, furthermore, that whether the elements of a stream are sure or uncertain, the effect of variability per set on the valuation of the stream is at best a secondorder one which can safely be neglected for our purposes (and indeed most others too). The next assumption plays a strategic role in the rest of the analysis. We shall assume that firms can be divided into equivalent return classes such that the return on the shares issued by any firm in any given class is proportional to (and hence perfectly correlated with) the return on the shares issued by any other firm in the same class. This assumption implies that the various shares within the same class differ, at most, by a scale factor. Accordingly, if we adjust for the difference in scale, by taking the ratio of the return to the expected return, the probability distribution of that ratio is identical for all shares in the class. It follows that all relevant properties of a share are uniquely characterized by specifying (1) the class to which it belongs and (2) its expected return. The significance of this assumption is that it permits us to classify firms into groups within which the shares of different firms are homogeneous, that is, perfect substitutes for one another. We have, thus, an analogue to the familiar concept of the industry in which it is the modity produced by the firms that is taken as homogeneous. To plete this analogy with Marshallian price theory, we shall assume in the analysis to follow that the shares concerned are traded in perfect markets under conditions of atomistic petition.From our definition of homogeneous classes of stock it follows that in equilibrium in a perfect capital market the price per dollar39。近來國家針對房地產(chǎn)泡沫進行相關的宏觀調(diào)控，收緊房地產(chǎn)貸款，同時提高購房首付款金額比率，影響房地產(chǎn)企業(yè)的融資渠道，限制房地產(chǎn)企業(yè)資金來源，房地產(chǎn)企業(yè)運用投資信托方式融資，利用其期限長且富有彈性，成本低的優(yōu)勢；同時鑒于我國信托業(yè)發(fā)展較晚，不完善，應注意風險防范。由于中國的房地產(chǎn)業(yè)興起時間不長，發(fā)展速度卻很快，行業(yè)發(fā)展尚未完善，法律法規(guī)尚未健全，所以西方成熟的資本結構理論或?qū)嵶C結論并不完全適用我國的房地產(chǎn)行業(yè)為了較有效的利用盈利能力、自由現(xiàn)金流等對于公司資本結構進行優(yōu)化，同時完善公司治理機制，應從以下幾個方面著手：。這也是符合中國房地產(chǎn)行業(yè)的現(xiàn)狀，因為在我國，房地產(chǎn)行業(yè)受國家宏觀調(diào)控政策的影響較大。究其原因主要是國家對于樓市的調(diào)控導致。該實證研究與國內(nèi)外絕大部分研究結果恰恰相反，與理論研究也存在明顯差異，其原因需要僅有一步探討。分析原因有兩個：第一，選取的指標不合適，償債指標具有多個如有形凈值債務率、利息保障倍數(shù)、息稅折舊攤銷前利潤/負債合計等，本文采用速動比率作為償債能力的代表指標，可能無法很好的詮釋其償債能力強弱程度；第二，償債能力側面反映了企業(yè)的自有資金能力，較強的償債能力下，企業(yè)的資金實力較強，可能不會提高負債水平。、均在容許界限之內(nèi)，因此可以認為該模型不存在明顯的多重共線性。c. 預測變量：(常量), X8, X3, X5, X6, X2, X4。c. 預測變量：(常量), X8, X3, X5, X6, X2, X4。假設4：公司規(guī)模（總資產(chǎn)的自然對數(shù)）與資本結構呈正相關關系。：（1） 本文所取用的房地產(chǎn)行業(yè)上市公司分類標準依據(jù)證監(jiān)會分類標準，具有權威性。近三年來負債都保持在56%58%之間，且幅度變化較小。獨立董事的規(guī)模反映了獨立董事是否具有足夠的人數(shù)實施監(jiān)