【正文】 JOHN MAYNARD KEYNES: If expenditure on armaments really does cure unemployment, a grand experiment has begun. Good may e out of evil. We may learn a trick or two which will e in useful when the day of peace es. 凱恩斯：如果軍備支出確實(shí)克服了失業(yè)問(wèn)題，那么一個(gè)更重大的試驗(yàn)開(kāi)始了。 machinists to make the guns and ammunition。JOHN KENNETH GALBRAITH: You resisted conservative finance, borrowed money, and hired people across the country, rescuing them from unemployment. That was the basic essential and that you didn39。s leading apostles. 旁白：哈佛大學(xué)成為凱恩斯在美國(guó)的學(xué)術(shù)橋頭堡。凱恩斯告訴各國(guó)政府對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)進(jìn)行管理是可能的，這使他成為那個(gè)時(shí)代最有影響的經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家。re going to stabilize this industry. We39。他們?cè)诤痛笫挆l作戰(zhàn)，以狂烈的行動(dòng)作為回應(yīng)－救濟(jì)失業(yè)者和挨餓者，讓人們重新回到工作崗位上。他的夫人－Eleanor－形容就職典禮日“非常莊嚴(yán)，有點(diǎn)令人生畏”。我們今天認(rèn)為理所當(dāng)然的一些概念，例如國(guó)內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值、失業(yè)水平、通貨膨脹率等所有用來(lái)刻畫(huà)經(jīng)濟(jì)總體特性的指標(biāo)，都是他提出來(lái)的。Onscreen title: Europe, 1931字幕標(biāo)題：歐洲，1931年NARRATOR: Banks collapsed. Industry ground to a stop. Millions were out of work. In Britain, working men, many of them war veterans, marched the length of the country to petition the government for the simple right to work. In Italy, Spain, and Germany, they marched to a different drum. With the failure of capitalism, fascism cast its shadow ever wider. John Maynard Keynes saw his nightmare ing true. 旁白：銀行倒閉；工廠停工；上百萬(wàn)人失業(yè)。NARRATOR: The millions that could not lost everything. 旁白：數(shù)百萬(wàn)人再也不能失去任何東西。30s here, it was a plete and utter collapse from the people39。美國(guó)人仍不滿足。美國(guó)人花錢(qián)、跳舞、開(kāi)派對(duì)、買(mǎi)車(chē)、買(mǎi)私燒錦酒，他們還買(mǎi)股票－大量的股票。1913年只值12馬克的鞋子到了1923年價(jià)格已經(jīng)漲到32萬(wàn)億馬克。在他的領(lǐng)導(dǎo)下，共產(chǎn)黨為經(jīng)濟(jì)生活的每個(gè)方面編制計(jì)劃并進(jìn)行管理。NARRATOR: Within a year Lenin was dead. The mourners at Lenin39。蘇聯(lián)成了一個(gè)嚴(yán)酷的地方，飽受寒冷、饑荒、饑餓和死亡的折磨。如果沒(méi)有它們，那么你得到的是一個(gè)無(wú)效的或者混亂的體系。奧地利學(xué)派經(jīng)濟(jì)思想的顯著特點(diǎn)就是他們認(rèn)為市場(chǎng)起作用而政府不起作用。ALBERT ZLABINGER, Economist and Pupil of Hayek: He openly said that he at one time was a socialist of the mild sort, where concerns for the poor and concerns for fairness and equity would help to determine government policy. Albert Zlabinger，經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家，哈耶克的學(xué)生：他公開(kāi)說(shuō)自己一度曾是溫和的社會(huì)主義者，主張對(duì)窮人，公平和平等的關(guān)注將會(huì)幫助政府確定政策。維也納是一個(gè)寒冷、饑餓的城市。取得了勝利的盟國(guó)希望戰(zhàn)敗的德國(guó)支付賠款以賠償戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)損失。革命使得貿(mào)易、商業(yè)和私人財(cái)產(chǎn)都成為犯罪活動(dòng)。s bound to draw your attention to the problems of political organization.哈耶克：第一次世界大戰(zhàn)確實(shí)產(chǎn)生了決定性的影響，它必定將你的注意力吸引到政治組織的問(wèn)題上來(lái)。FRIEDRICH VON HAYEK: We did not realize how fragile our civilization was. 哈耶克: 我們沒(méi)有意識(shí)到我們的文明是多么脆弱。NARRATOR: At the start of the 20th century, Hayek and Keynes had witnessed the first age of globalization. Every day life was being transformed everywhere. Technologies like the telegraph and the telephone revolutionized munications. Steamships and railways made the world a smaller place. Tens of millions migrated without the need for passports.旁白：二十世紀(jì)初，哈耶克和凱恩斯見(jiàn)證了第一次全球化浪潮。s based upon prices or on state, planning has been at the very heart of the economic battles of the last 100 years. For decades, the ideas of John Maynard Keynes dominated the economies of the Western world.：辯論涉及到各種市場(chǎng)力量。德國(guó)轟炸機(jī)今晚將轟炸另一個(gè)英國(guó)城市。 the story of intellectual bat over which economic system would truly benefit mankind。一些人害怕全球化的浪潮，對(duì)它能帶來(lái)的好處持懷疑態(tài)度，而另外一些人則持歡迎態(tài)度。s not an option to shed it. So is it going to be on balance positive or negative?克林頓，美國(guó)總統(tǒng)，19932001：你不能無(wú)視全球化使我們互相依賴這個(gè)事實(shí)，因此無(wú)法選擇擺脫它。 DANIEL YERGIN, Author, Commanding Heights: This new world economy is being driven by technological change and by political change, but none of it would have happened without a revolution in ideas.（DANIEL YERGIN），《制高點(diǎn)》的作者：技術(shù)變革和政治變革推動(dòng)著世界新經(jīng)濟(jì)的發(fā)展，但是如果沒(méi)有思想革命的話，這些都不會(huì)發(fā)生。John Maynard Keynes helped the allied governments defend freedom by planning their wartime economies. Friedrich von Hayek thought government interference in the economy was a threat to freedom.凱恩斯通過(guò)為盟國(guó)政府規(guī)劃戰(zhàn)時(shí)經(jīng)濟(jì)來(lái)幫助他們捍衛(wèi)自由。因此政府必須介入。種族、文化之間敵對(duì)的軍國(guó)主義和帝國(guó)主義就如同每天看報(bào)的消遣一樣。Friedrich von Hayek served in the Austrian artillery. He was only 17 years old still a schoolboy. The fighting was ferocious. He experienced retreat and defeat.哈耶克在奧地利炮兵部隊(duì)中服役，當(dāng)時(shí)他只有17歲－還是一個(gè)學(xué)生。s leader, urged the workers of the world to unite against the global economy. The revolution made trade, merce, and private property criminal acts. Lenin promised to end the economic exploitation of man by man.旁白：俄國(guó)革命推翻了舊秩序，它的目標(biāo)就是建立一個(gè)更美好的世界。另外，他還是倫敦城的一個(gè)家喻戶曉的人物，因?yàn)樗趥惗毓善笔袌?chǎng)上賺了大錢(qián)，全輸?shù)袅耍缓笥仲嵙嘶貋?lái)。那個(gè)夏天，Grant畫(huà)下了正在寫(xiě)書(shū)的凱恩斯，那是一本預(yù)言式的書(shū)－《和平的經(jīng)濟(jì)后果》. JOHN MAYNARD KEYNES: If we take the view that Germany must be kept impoverished and her children starved and crippled, vengeance, I dare predict, will not limp. Nothing can delay that final war that will destroy the civilization and progress of our generation. 凱恩斯:如果我們認(rèn)為必須讓德國(guó)非常貧困，讓德國(guó)兒童挨餓、殘廢，那么我敢預(yù)言復(fù)仇將不會(huì)停止。我真的被它抓住了。Von Mises 認(rèn)為市場(chǎng)就像人一樣需要擺脫政府的干預(yù)。You can think of them as traffic signals. And if you don39。工資和價(jià)格是固定的。但是左派嚴(yán)厲抨擊列寧，抨擊他背叛了布爾什維主義和馬克思主義的原則。s successor would tighten the Communist Party39。NARRATOR: Hayek, who was working at a statistical research institute, needed 200 pay raises in eight months. Money was cheaper than wallpaper. Millionmark notes lit stoves. Shoes that cost 12 marks in 1913 sold for 32 trillion marks in 1923. In Hitler39。NARRATOR: Hayek would always see inflation as an evil that corroded society and undermined democracy. The fight against inflation became a cornerstone of his economic philosophy. 旁白：哈耶克始終把通貨膨脹看成侵蝕社會(huì)和破壞民主的惡魔。最受歡迎的股票是那些新的無(wú)線電廣播公司的股票。股票市場(chǎng)關(guān)閉八個(gè)小時(shí)之后，仍然不斷有壞消息傳出。當(dāng)然，與此一致，銀行也紛紛破產(chǎn)。NEWSREEL NARRATOR: Private construction virtually ceases. Mills and factories shut down. Railroads e to a virtual standstill. Millions of Americans men, women, children wait in the cold on bread lines, in soup kitchens. Three million Americans are exwage earners, unemployed, and the ranks of the unemployed are to soar to 15 million. 新聞片旁白：私人建筑業(yè)事實(shí)上已經(jīng)中止；工廠停產(chǎn)；鐵路運(yùn)輸陷入事實(shí)上的停頓狀態(tài)。In Cambridge, Keynes set out to save capitalism from itself by writing a book about what caused the Great Depression and what to do about it. He aimed to rewrite the rules of economics, to see a country39。民主似乎正在退卻；與民主一樣的還有自由體制。He then embarked on a whirlwind program of reform. 然后他著手開(kāi)始進(jìn)行旋風(fēng)式的改革計(jì)劃。新政實(shí)施后，企業(yè)要受到一系列新規(guī)則和規(guī)章制度的約束?！蓖ㄟ^(guò)這種方法，他們消除了航空業(yè)中繁榮－破產(chǎn)的惡性循環(huán)。繁榮時(shí)期政府應(yīng)該削減支出和進(jìn)行儲(chǔ)備；困難時(shí)期，比如大蕭條時(shí)期，政府應(yīng)該逐步增加支出，實(shí)行赤字財(cái)政，讓