【正文】 (2)rate=prime lending rate+an additional percentage。即，當(dāng)不考慮公司稅時，企業(yè)的價值是由它的實(shí)際資產(chǎn)決定的，而不取決于這些資產(chǎn)的取得形式，即企業(yè)的價值與資本結(jié)構(gòu)無關(guān)。 ? 在中國，工資有時亦為固定成本之一。P500 )()(500amp。職能戰(zhàn)略－財務(wù)戰(zhàn)略（策略） 李建良 北京信息科技大學(xué)經(jīng)濟(jì)管理學(xué)院 北京信息科技大學(xué)企業(yè)成長研究中心 2022年 要點(diǎn) ? 企業(yè)戰(zhàn)略三層次邏輯框架 ? 企業(yè)財務(wù)戰(zhàn)略的邏輯框架 ? 企業(yè)財務(wù)戰(zhàn)略決策的要點(diǎn) ? 投資決策 ? 基本原理 ? 確定條件下的投資決策 ? 不確定條件的投資決策 ? 融資決策 ? 營運(yùn)資金決策 ? 股利決策 企業(yè)戰(zhàn)略三層次邏輯框架 公司級戰(zhàn)略：多產(chǎn)品公司總戰(zhàn)略 BUA戰(zhàn)略 BUB戰(zhàn)略 BUC戰(zhàn)略 營銷策略 財務(wù)策略 運(yùn)營策略 ?何處競爭？ ?何時競爭？ ?如何競爭？ ?一般競爭戰(zhàn)略 ?成本領(lǐng)先 ?差異化 ?集中化 ?發(fā)展型戰(zhàn)略 ?穩(wěn)定型戰(zhàn)略 ?緊縮型戰(zhàn)略 財務(wù)控制：價值流 物流控制：物質(zhì)流 企業(yè)基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施 人力資源管理 技術(shù)開發(fā) 采購 進(jìn)貨后勤 生產(chǎn)作業(yè) 發(fā)貨后勤 經(jīng)營銷售 服務(wù) 輔助活動 基本活動 外部價值鏈 職能戰(zhàn)略：將公司級戰(zhàn)略和業(yè)務(wù)戰(zhàn)略轉(zhuǎn)化為具體的職能策略和行動舉措！ 單一業(yè)務(wù)公司 企業(yè)財務(wù)戰(zhàn)略的邏輯框架 流動資產(chǎn) 固定資產(chǎn) 其他長期資產(chǎn) 流動負(fù)債 長期負(fù)債 所有者權(quán)益 凈營運(yùn)資金 ? 投資決策 ? （長期）融資決策 ? 營運(yùn)資金（流動資金）決策 ? 股利決策 公司戰(zhàn)略 /業(yè)務(wù)單元戰(zhàn)略的戰(zhàn)略類型（發(fā)展型、緊縮型、穩(wěn)定型）和一般競爭戰(zhàn)略途徑選擇（成本領(lǐng)先、差異化、集中化）對財務(wù)戰(zhàn)略（策略）的要求 適應(yīng) 投資決策－基本原理 ? 投資是經(jīng)濟(jì)主體讓渡現(xiàn)行的貨幣使用權(quán)，以期在未來獲得一定的貨幣收入的經(jīng)濟(jì)行為（規(guī)劃現(xiàn)金流的行為）。500amp。 ? 增量現(xiàn)金流不確定的處理方法 不確定條件的投資決策 Year 0 Initial investment Sales units revenues Variable costs Fixed costs Depreciation Taxes(34%) Net profits Operating CF NPV 1500 0 0 0 1791 300 711 1380 1080 5120 1500 1000 2022 1000 1791 300 371 720 420 2980 1500 3000 6000 3000 1791 300 309 600 900 1517 1500 10000 20220 10000 1791 300 2689 5220 5520 17004 )()12( )()3001791()1()( )1()(* ????? ??????? ?????ccpr of i tne t TVP TDCQ23151528)()12()(15001500)1()()1(*50*?????????????????????????N P VTrd a t ecccN P VQAAI n v e s t me n tE A CTVPTDTCE A CQ?Q* profit ?Q*NPV 用凈利潤口徑計算的盈虧平衡點(diǎn)銷量假設(shè) D=EAC, 即初始投資通過折舊得到彌補(bǔ)，這一計算忽視了初始投資的機(jī)會成本 (discount rate)= ? 增量現(xiàn)金流不確定的處理方法－盈虧平衡分析舉例 不確定條件的投資決策 方法四：期權(quán)法 OptionsAbandon or Expand M = NPV + Opt The market value of the project The value of the project without options to expand or contract The value of managerial options Notes: Conventional NPV analysis discounts a project’s cash flows estimated for a certain project life. The decision is whether to accept the project or reject it. In practice, managers can expand or contract the scope of a project at various moments over its life. In theory, all such managerial options should be included in the project’s value. The right of choice! ? 增量現(xiàn)金流不確定的處理方法 不確定條件的投資決策 Conventional Date 0 Date 1 units Cash Flow $ 1050 10 $ 100 in perpetuity Options a year after Abandon( Failure) $ 1050 0 $ 500 equipment salvage Expand( Success ) $ 1050 20 $ 200 in perpetuity Discount rate 10%, the probability of failure and success is the same (50%), should we launch the new product? %101%5050050:50%101001050:?????????????O p tN P VMO p t i o n sN P ValC o n v e n t i o n 7 7%101%50%102 0 0%505 0 01 0 01 0 5 0 ?????????N P V方法一： 方法二： C/r The expected cash flow from abandonment The expected cash flow from options ? 增量現(xiàn)金流不確定的處理方法－期權(quán)法舉例 不確定條件的投資決策 融資決策－基本邏輯 Current Assets Fixed Assets ?Tangible ?Intangible Current Liabilities Longterm Debts Shareholders’ Equity NPV:investment decision Financing Decision EMH and its implications for corporate finance Capital structure Decision Longterm financing and limits to the use of debt Financing sources Value of firm: from the perspective of assets value or assets return. Value of firm: from the perspective of the market value of debts and equities ? Equitystock（股權(quán)－股票） ? Bonds（債券） ? Preferred stock（優(yōu)先股） ? Convertible preferred stock（可轉(zhuǎn)換優(yōu)先股） ? Convertible bonds（可轉(zhuǎn)換債） ? Warrants（認(rèn)股權(quán)證） 融資決策－長期工具選擇 ? 有效市場假設(shè) ? Definition: An efficient market is one in which stock prices fully reflect available information. ? General implications for investors and for firms: ? Because information is reflected in prices immediately, investors should only expect to obtain a normal rate of return. Awareness of information when it is released does an invest no good. The price adjusts before the investor has time to trade on it。 要報酬率無負(fù)債公司的普通股必資本成本有負(fù)債公司的加權(quán)平均無負(fù)債公司的價值有負(fù)債公司的價值公司價值?????????UUSAULSAULKKVVVKE B I TKE B I TVVVInvestment=Depreciation, because of Zero growth ???? ?Tt tAT KE B ITim1 )1(?If levered firms are priced too high, rational investors will simply borrow on their personal accounts to buy shares in unlevered firms. This substitution is oftentimes called homemade leverage. As long as individuals borrows (and lend) on the same terms as the firms, they can duplicate the effects of corporate leverage on their own. The same ?EBIT regardless of the L/S ratio(Assumption) 融資決策－資本結(jié)構(gòu) ? 負(fù)債約束 VL = VU + TD Maximize firm value by issue maximum debt? No! How to maximize firm value? Maximize firm value by issue maximum debt? ? making use of those benefits from debt financing, such as tax shield benefit。 (3)usually requiring pensating balances ( deposits the firm keeps with the bank in lowinterest or noninterestbearing accounts). ? Committed line of credit: (1) formal legal arrangements and usually involve a mitment fee paid by the firm to the bank, usually the fee is approximately % of the total mitted funds per year. (2) London Interbank Offered Rate (LIBOR) for large firms。 EBIT EPS Line with tax Line without tax 0 The Benefits from Debt Financing（債務(wù)增加的收益） 融資決策－負(fù)債約束 ? Bankruptcy costs（破產(chǎn)成本） ?Direct costs: Lawyer fees（律師費(fèi)） , administrative and accounting fees（行政與會計費(fèi)用） , expert witness fees when a trial takes place（作證費(fèi)用） . ?Indirect costs: 股東及經(jīng)理人“合謀”短期利益（ transfer assets or profit, cancel required maintenance expenses, and so on), 顧客、供貨商和資金提供者的避險行為選險（ sales are freque