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【正文】 益之間的數(shù)量關(guān)系,首次將高收益伴隨著高風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的直觀認(rèn)識(shí)用簡(jiǎn)單的關(guān)系式表達(dá)出來。標(biāo)準(zhǔn)離差率指標(biāo)可以用來比較預(yù)期收益率不同的資產(chǎn)之間的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)大小。也可稱為變異系數(shù)。 Introduction to Risk and Return —— risk 標(biāo)準(zhǔn)差和方差都是用絕對(duì)指標(biāo)來衡量資產(chǎn)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)大小。 ? The reason why corporations do not enter gambles with volatile payoffs and small positive expected returns is that managers know that generally volatility matters. ——Rene 一些企業(yè)之所以沒有涉足到一些帶有極大不確定性回報(bào)和預(yù)期收益很小的類似賭博似的業(yè)務(wù)中,是因?yàn)榻?jīng)理人知道極大的不確定性是存在的。Unite 6 Risk and return Wisdom ? Don’t put all your eggs in one basket. ——Anonymous 不要把雞蛋放在同一個(gè)籃子里。 ? He is the part of wise man to keep himself today for tomorrow, and not venture all his eggs in one basket. ——Cervantes, Don Quixote 他是智者中的一員,為明天而在今天保存自己,不會(huì)冒險(xiǎn)把雞蛋放在同一個(gè)籃子里。 ? 收益率的標(biāo)準(zhǔn)差:它等于方差的開方(平方根)。 ? 標(biāo)準(zhǔn)離差率是資產(chǎn)收益率的標(biāo)準(zhǔn)差與期望值之比。 1.適用條件:一般情況下標(biāo)準(zhǔn)離差率越大,資產(chǎn)的相對(duì)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)越大;相反,標(biāo)準(zhǔn)離差率越小,資產(chǎn)的相對(duì)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)越小。 ? postearnings announcement drift Portfolio Theory —— The Expected Return of a Portfolio Harry M. Markowitz (1952) ?The Expected Return of a Portfolio—— a weighted average of the expected returns on the individual securities 資產(chǎn)組合的預(yù)期收益率: Variance and standard deviation measure the variability of individual stocks. Covariance and correlation measure how two random variables are related. 兩項(xiàng)資產(chǎn)組合的收益率的方差滿足以下關(guān)系式: Portfolio Theory —— Risk in a Portfolio Context Portfolio Theory —— Diversified Risk versus Market Risk Beta and Capital Asset Pricing Model —— The Concept of Beta ?Beta coefficient, is defined under the CAPM as the amount of risk that the stock contributes to the market portfolio. ?β?: Stock is only half as risky as the market, if held in a diversified portfolio. ?β?: Stock is about as risky as the market, if held in a diversified portfolio. ?β?: Stock is twice as risky as the market, if held in a diversified portfolio. ii iMM?????ii iMM?????Beta and Capital Asset Pricing Model —— The capital asset pricing model (CAPM) measures the relationship between risk and required rate of return for assets held in welldiversified portfolios. ()i R F M R F ir r r r ?? ? ?影響預(yù)期收益率的因素: ( 1)無風(fēng)險(xiǎn)收益率; ( 2)系統(tǒng)風(fēng)險(xiǎn); ( 3)對(duì)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的容忍程度。 該模型的基本形式為
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