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【正文】 Unite 6 Risk and return Wisdom ? Don’t put all your eggs in one basket. ——Anonymous 不要把雞蛋放在同一個籃子里。 ? My ventures are not in one bottom trusted, not to one place, nor is my whole estate upon the fortune of this present years。 Therefore, my merchandise makes me not sad. ——Shakespear, Merchant of Venice 我的買賣的成敗并不完全寄托在一艘船上,更不是倚賴著一處地方;我的全部財產(chǎn),也不會因為這一年的盈虧而受到影響,所以我的貨物并不能使我憂愁。 ? He is the part of wise man to keep himself today for tomorrow, and not venture all his eggs in one basket. ——Cervantes, Don Quixote 他是智者中的一員,為明天而在今天保存自己,不會冒險把雞蛋放在同一個籃子里。 ? The reason why corporations do not enter gambles with volatile payoffs and small positive expected returns is that managers know that generally volatility matters. ——Rene 一些企業(yè)之所以沒有涉足到一些帶有極大不確定性回報和預(yù)期收益很小的類似賭博似的業(yè)務(wù)中,是因為經(jīng)理人知道極大的不確定性是存在的。 Wisdom Mini case For many people it is quite acceptable to risk $20 every week in the lottery, in view of potential returns of hundreds of thousands (or even millions) of dollars. When you buy a lottery ticket, the risk of losing your $20 is very high (how often have you won anything at lotto). How much you will be willing to risk, given a set probability of winning or losing, depends on your character——you may be a risklover or you may be riskaverse. Words study 組合 Portfolio risk 投資組合風險 There is an important difference between standalone and portfolio risk, and an asset that has a great deal of risk if held by itself may be much less risky if it is held as part of larger portfolio. risk 可分散風險 In a portfolio context, an asset’s risk can be divided into two ponents:(1) diversifiable risk, which can be diversified away and thus is of little concern to diversified investors, and (2) market risk, which reflects the risk of a general stock market decline and cannot be eliminated by diversification, and does concern investors. return 期望收益 Expected return refers to the expected change in the value of an asset over a given (future) time period. Since we cannot know the future, we have to make a guess as to what to ―expect‖, based on what has happened to returns in the past. variable 隨機變量 概率 The uncertainty of future outes is usually expressed in terms of probability and plotted in a probability di
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