外文翻譯--中國(guó)的fdi國(guó)內(nèi)投資與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)：一個(gè)時(shí)間序列分析-預(yù)覽頁(yè)
【正文】 and the trend of the level series in a VAR system but the centred seasonal dummy variable only shifts the mean without contributing to the trend . In this paper, we employ the augmented Dickey–Fuller (ADF) test to test the stationarity of the three time series FDI, DI and GDP. As can be seen from Figures 4(a–c), the three series appear to be nonstationary in level form. Therefore, we investigate the stationarity of the first difference of the three series by testing for unit roots. The ADF tests are performed on both the level and first differenced observations by estimating the following three models: ? No constant and no trend model: tki ititt yryy ?? ????? ?? ?? 11 （ 1） ? Constant and no trend model: titki itt yryy ??? ?????? ??? ?110 （ 2） ? Constant and trend model: titki itt yryty ???? ?????? ??? ?1120 （ 3） The results of the ADF test are shown in Table 2. They show that the null hypothesis of a unit root is: (a) accepted for the level series of FDI in all three models。 great economic growth spurs large domestic investment, and vice versa. 3. China’s domestic investment and GDP do not have much impact on FDI inflows in the long run. The causal link between GDP and DI is bidirectional, but there is only a oneway directional causality from FDI to DI and FDI to GDP. 4. China’s domestic investment has a greater impact on growth than FDI does. These lend some support to the theoretical view that FDI has plementary 8 effects on domestic investment, and that longterm economic growth is positively associated with FDI. 一、 CONCLUSIONS AND POLICY IMPLICATIONS Based on the empirical analysis and findings, we conclude that rather than crowding out domestic investment, FDI has a plementary relationship with domestic investment. FDI has not only assisted in overing shortages of capital, it has also stimulated economic growth through plementing domestic investment in China. The findings of this study do have some important implications for policy makers in China and elsewhere. Since FDI plements domestic investment, less developed countries ought to encourage and promote FDI inflows, for which appropriate FDI policies and regulations are required. 譯 文： 中國(guó)的 FDI,國(guó)內(nèi)投資與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)：一個(gè)時(shí)間序列分析 二、 引言 盡管 FDI 對(duì)投資影響的大量研究， FDI 在經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)中扮演的角色也受到廣泛的爭(zhēng)議。當(dāng) FDI 進(jìn)入資源密集型產(chǎn)業(yè)時(shí)，相關(guān)產(chǎn)業(yè)的國(guó)內(nèi)投資也會(huì)受到刺激。他得出當(dāng) FDI 在產(chǎn)業(yè)產(chǎn)出的比率上升時(shí)， FDI 對(duì)中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)有極大的收益性影響。這種壟斷力量會(huì)進(jìn)一步地提升 9 跨國(guó)公司其他兩方面的優(yōu)勢(shì)：市場(chǎng)內(nèi)部一體優(yōu)勢(shì)和市場(chǎng)定位優(yōu)勢(shì)（鄧寧）。 本文在許多方面和前期的一些研究存在不同。 沒(méi)有考慮到變量間可能的雙向因果關(guān)系會(huì)引發(fā)并發(fā)性問(wèn)題。 二、 19782020 中國(guó)的 FDI 流入，國(guó)內(nèi)投資和經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)概述 在 20 世紀(jì) 80 年代初期，向外國(guó)投資者提供稅收減免和經(jīng)濟(jì)特權(quán)的優(yōu)惠政策經(jīng)濟(jì)特區(qū)成立。 DI/GDP 的比率從 1978 年的 %已快速增長(zhǎng)到 2020 年的 %。數(shù)據(jù)來(lái)源于由中國(guó)國(guó)家統(tǒng)計(jì)局出版的中國(guó)統(tǒng)計(jì)月報(bào)（ 1987:12020:3）及新中國(guó) 50 年的綜合和統(tǒng)計(jì)數(shù)據(jù)材料和中國(guó)各種統(tǒng)計(jì)年鑒。在 本文中運(yùn)用擴(kuò)展的 ADF檢驗(yàn)來(lái)檢驗(yàn) FDI, DI 和 GDP這三個(gè)時(shí)間序列的平穩(wěn)性。 1.tki ititt yryy ?? ????? ?? ?? 11 （ 1） 2.titki itt yryy ??? ?????? ??? ?110 （ 2） 3.titki itt yryty ???? ?????? ??? ?1120 （ 3） ADF 檢驗(yàn)結(jié)果見(jiàn)表 2。 （二）變量的協(xié)整檢驗(yàn) 現(xiàn)在進(jìn)行的協(xié)整檢驗(yàn)時(shí)檢驗(yàn) FDI, DI 和 GDP 這三個(gè)變量 在任何長(zhǎng)期均衡關(guān)系的協(xié)整。這意味著三個(gè)變量 FDI, DI 和 GDP 之間 存在長(zhǎng)期的均衡關(guān)系。根據(jù) Schwarzz（ 1978）和 Akaike（ 1974）的信息準(zhǔn)則，滯后的長(zhǎng)度被選為 6。 這結(jié)果表明， FDI，國(guó)內(nèi)投資和經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)之間的關(guān)系強(qiáng)度是不同的。 但 DI 與 GDP 之間的聯(lián)系是比較強(qiáng)勁的， DI/GDP 為 %， GDP/DI 為 %。因此， FDI影 響 DI 和 GDP，反向作用不明顯， GDP 和 DI 間因果聯(lián)系是雙向的。另外， FDI 對(duì)中國(guó)的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)有重大影響。國(guó)內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值和國(guó)內(nèi)投資之間存在雙向因果關(guān)系，同時(shí)外國(guó)直接投資對(duì)國(guó)內(nèi)投資和外國(guó)直接投資對(duì)國(guó)內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值都只是單向因果關(guān)系。 外國(guó)直接投資不僅 幫助 克服資金 短 缺， 它還通過(guò) 補(bǔ)充國(guó)內(nèi)投資刺激 中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)增
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