【正文】 ，因此提高城市軌道交通 CBTC 系統的安全性尤為重要。在城市軌道交通中管理各個部門、各個專業(yè)的協同運行是一個龐大的系統，因此影響運營的風險因素也有很多，其中信號信號系統就是一個重要的環(huán)節(jié)。在中部地區(qū)長沙、成都、武漢、鄭州、南昌等已經相繼籌備并陸續(xù)運營城市軌道交通，東北長春、沈陽、哈爾冰等城市也在快速發(fā)展跟進。地鐵 1 號線是上海第一條地鐵，據統計，其日均進站客流量 20xx 年為 萬人次， 20xx 年為 102． 63萬人次， 20xx 年為 萬人次， 20xx 年已達 萬人次，處于逐年穩(wěn)步上升趨 勢。 Probabilistic risk assessment 基于我國高鐵客運市場需求分析的高鐵服務營銷產品和流程設計 目錄 1 緒論 .............................................................................................................................. 8 我國軌道交通發(fā)展概述 ........................................................................................ 8 軌道交通 CBTC 安全狀況 ...................................................................................... 8 研究的目的和意義 ............................................................................................... 9 風險評估概述 ............................................................................................................10 風險的定義和特征 ..............................................................................................10 風險的評估和分析方法 .......................................................................................11 風險的標準和評估 ..............................................................................................12 風險的標準 ...............................................................................................12 風險的分析和評估方法 ..............................................................................13 信號系統安全風險 ..............................................................................................14 市軌道交通信號系統風險因素分析 ...........................................................................15 道岔設備和計軸設備故障 ....................................................................................15 岔道口設備故障 ........................................................................................16 計軸設備故障 ............................................................................................17 軌道電路故障和計算機網絡 故障 .........................................................................18 電路故障 ...................................................................................................19 計算機及網絡故障 .....................................................................................21 公共部分 ............................................................................................................23 電纜故障 ...................................................................................................23 信號電源影響 ............................................................................................23 信號系統風險因素統計 .......................................................................................26 4 軌道 交通 CBTC 系統 概率 風險評估 .................................................................................27 故障模式及影響分 析 ...........................................................................................27 故障樹構建方法 ..................................................................................................28 故障樹概述 ...............................................................................................28 建造故障樹的方法 .....................................................................................29 構建 CBTC 系統故 障樹 .........................................................................................29 系統概率風險評估 .......................................................................................33 本章小結 ............................................................................................................34 應用實例 ...................................................................................................................35 岔道事故風險 .....................................................................................................35 計軸故障風險概率 ..............................................................................................37 電路故障風險 .....................................................................................................38 計算機及網絡 .....................................................................................................40 公共部分 ............................................................................................................41 本章小結 ............................................................................................................42 結論和展望 ................................................................................................................43 基于我國高鐵客運市場需求分析的高鐵服務營銷產品和流程設計 1 緒論 我國軌道交通發(fā)展概述 城市國道交通是指在具有固定線路、配備特殊的運輸車輛、鋪設固定軌道以提供公共通行為目的的交通設施。 關鍵詞：軌道交通；信號系統；風險評價；故障樹；概率風險評估 基于我國高鐵客運市場需求分析的高鐵服務營銷產品和流程設計 ABSTRACT Rapid development of urban rail transit in China, the rail traffic safety is more and more attention, the signal system is an important part of rail transit system, this article is based on fault tree analysis, fault tree to build rail transit, the probabilistic risk assessment method, the study of rail transit signal system risk assessment. Urban rail transit is a large and plex system, there are many factors that can affect the sa fety of operation, in this paper, first of all kinds of risk factors analysis of the impact of rail transit, analyzes the fault type of rail transit signal system, the signal system switch and axle, circuit and puter work and the public part of the influence of three types of five kinds of the causes of risks, and by using the fault tree analysis method to establish the fault tree, construction of middle and bottom events, probability risk assessment method is used to signal system probabilistic risk assessment. And will switch failure, shaft failure, failure of circuit, puter and work, the public part as the underlying event risk probability evaluation calculation, using relevant data