【正文】 10 20 8 28 24 24 15 43 7 29 42 40 13 (0) 16 13 39 40% 20% 10% 10% 30% 50% 30% 30% 30% 30% 20% 40% 30% 50% 40% 40% 40% (46) (33) (16) (30) (44) (60) (38) (51) (35) (45) (44) (57) (38) (50) (48) (47) (57) (53) (41) (26) (41) (53) (66) (44) (60) (46) (53) (51) (64) (49) (54) (57) (54) (64) (39) (23) (8) (24) (34) (53) (34) (42) (23) (38) (38) (46) (26) (47) (39) (38) (53) Offshore average 22 (44) (51) (35) A/Bshare listed Beijing Capital Development Buy* (Rmb) 50 45% (63) (69) (57) China Merchants Property (A) Buy (Rmb) 34 30% (48) (53) (44) Gemdale Corp. Overseas Chinese Town Poly Real Estate (A) Risesun Real Estate Neutral Neutral Neutral Neutral (Rmb) (Rmb) (Rmb) (Rmb) 27 22 19 14 45% 40% 25% 25% (56) (51) (37) (34) (62) (55) (46) (44) (52) (47) (28) (25) Shanghai Shimao Sell (Rmb) 2 55% (56) (62) (53) China Vanke (A) China Vanke (B) Buy* Buy (Rmb) (HK$) 53 19 30% 40% (54) (50) (59) (55) (49) (44) Jiangsu Zhongnan Buy (Rmb) 40 40% (57) (65) (50) WorldUnion Neutral (Rmb) 18 . NA NA NA NA NA NA Onshore average 27 37% (51) (57) (45) Singapore listed Yanlord Perennial China Retail Trust Sell Sell (S$) (S$) (2) (9) 40% 30% (39) (23) (46) (36) (31) (8) US listed EHouse EJ Neutral (US$) 11 . NA NA NA NA NA NA Simple average of above 19 (47) (53) (39) Note: 1) *Indicates the stock is on our Conviction List. 2) Our 12month target prices are based on end2022E NAV for developers, and 2022E P/E multiple for EHouse and WorldUnion. We expect a 510% price increase in 1H13 but then no or limited growth in 2H13. 3) Bullcase: We expect property price to increase by another 1520% in 2H13 by assuming no government intervention to stop price appreciation. Bearcase: We expect property prices to return to 1H 12 tough levels if government takes preemptive and harsh policy actions towards developer in ing months to eliminate any price appreciation possibilities. Source: DataStream, Company data, Gao Hua Securities Research estimates. 5 2022 年 12 月 4 日 中國：房地產 Updating our price/volume assumptions for 2022 Exhibit 2 and 3 summarizes our base, bull and bearcase price and basecase volume assumptions for our coverage universe. Basecase: We expect a 510% price increase in 1H13, but then limited or no growth in 2H13, based on our expectation of possible government intervention to control the pace of price appreciation. Bullcase: Property prices to increase by 1520% in 2H13, assuming no government intervention to stop price appreciation. Bearcase: Property prices to return to 1H12 tough levels, if the government takes preemptive and harsh policy action to eliminate any price appreciation possibilities. Exhibit 2: Our base, bull and bearcase price assumption for our coverage Exhibit 3: Our basecase volume assumption for our coverage universe (mn sqm) 200 Basecase Bullcase Bearcase 200 120 9%yoy 180 180 162 167 167 100 +25%yoy 160 140 150 138 151 80 60 138 120 40 100 100 Beginning End09 09 End10 End11 Mid12 End12 Mid13E End13E 20 0 2022 2022E 2022E Source: Gao Hua Securities Research estimates. Source: Gao Hua Securities Research estimates. Raising estimates, but still below Consensus Our 2022E2022E underlying profit estimates are 2%/5%/11% below consensus, reflecting our more conservative margin estimates We raise our underlying profit estimates by an average of 0%, 5% and 11% in 2022E2022E after factoring in our new assumptions for property price, updates in the development pipeline and volume assumptions. Our new underlying EPS forecasts for 2022E/2022E are 5%/11% below Bloomberg/Wind consensus on our lower sales and margin estimates. Accordingly, we raise our underlying EPS estimates by the same magnitude (see Exhibit 5). 高華證券投資研究 ? ? ? 6 2022 年 12 月 4 日 Exhibit 4: We raise our 2022E2022E underlying profit forecasts by 0%/5%/11% on average 中國：房地產 Reporting Net profit forecast (mn) Underlying profit forecast (mn) Currency New Old Change (%) New Old Change (%) 11A 12E 13E 14E 12E 13E 14E 12E 13E 14E 11A 12E 13E 14E 12E 13E 14E 12E 13E 14E Offshore listed Agile COGO COLI CRL Country Garden Evergrande Franshion Greentown Ramp。 Greentown/Longfor to Conv. Buy, October 22, 2022) Target price changes We revise our NAVbased 12month