【正文】 have been acpanied by excellent underwriting margins following contraction or withdrawal by many petitors in the wake of the 197475 crisis period. These conditions will reverse before long. In the meantime, National Indemnity’s underwriting profitability has increased dramatically and, in addition, large sums have been made available for investment. As markets loosen and rates bee inadequate, we again will face the challenge of philosophically accepting reduced volume. Unusual managerial discipline will be required, as it runs counter to normal institutional behavior to let the other fellow take away business even at foolish prices. 講到這裡，我們必須再度將殊榮歸予 Phil Liesche，在核保部門 Roland Miller 以及理 賠部門 Bill Lyons 的大力協(xié)助下，國家產(chǎn)險(xiǎn) 1977 年在傳統(tǒng)的汽車及責(zé)任險(xiǎn)業(yè)務(wù)方面又 大放異彩，保費(fèi)收入不但大幅成長，相較於其他同業(yè)不堪 197475 年的危機(jī)陸續(xù)退出 市場，其優(yōu)異的核保利益更屬難得，國家產(chǎn)險(xiǎn)的核保利益大幅地成長，此外可供投資 的資金亦迅速累積，只可惜這樣的情況維持不了多久，這些業(yè)者又會(huì)再度捲土重來， 隨著市場緊繃情勢轉(zhuǎn)為寬鬆，費(fèi)率又將變得失控，屆時(shí)我們又必須回復(fù)過去冷靜地接 受保費(fèi)收入 銳減的考驗(yàn)，嚴(yán)格的核保紀(jì)律絕對必須維持，如此我們才能抗拒直覺，眼 睜睜地看著其他業(yè)者以瘋狂的價(jià)格搶走生意。 In aggregate, the insurance business has worked out very well. But it hasn’t been a oneway street. Some major mistakes have been made during the decade, both in products and personnel. We experienced significant problems from (1) a surety operation initiated in 1969, (2) the 1973 expansion of Home and Automobile’s urban auto marketing into the Miami, Florida area, (3) a still unresolved aviation “fronting” arrangement, and (4) our Worker’s Compensation operation in California, which we believe retains an interesting potential upon pletion of a reanization now in progress. It is forting to be in a business where some mistakes can be made and yet a quite satisfactory overall performance can be achieved. In a sense, this is the opposite case from our textile business where even very good management probably can average only modest results. One of the lessons your management has learned and, unfortunately, sometimes re learned is the importance of being in businesses where tailwinds prevail rather than headwinds. 總的來說，保險(xiǎn)事業(yè)的表現(xiàn)還算不錯(cuò)，但情況並非全然如此，過去十年來，我們也犯 過一些大錯(cuò)，不論是在產(chǎn)品或是人員方面，比如說我們在以下方面就曾遇到重大的困 難： (1)1969 年推出的保證責(zé)任險(xiǎn) (2)1973 年擴(kuò)充佛羅里達(dá)邁阿密地區(qū)的家庭及汽車保 險(xiǎn)業(yè)務(wù) (3)目前尚未解決的航空 ”前置 ”安排 (4)我們在加州的勞工退休金業(yè)務(wù)，我們相信 這業(yè)務(wù)一旦改組完成應(yīng)該還是相當(dāng)有潛力。 Textile Operations 紡織事業(yè) The textile business again had a very poor year in 1977. We have mistakenly predicted better results in each of the last two years. This may say something about our forecasting abilities, the nature of the textile industry, or both. Despite strenuous efforts, problems in marketing and manufacturing have persisted. Many difficulties experienced in the marketing area are due primarily to industry conditions, but some of the problems have been of our own making. 1977 年紡織事業(yè)的表現(xiàn)依舊低迷不振，過去兩年我們樂觀的預(yù)期紛紛落空，這或許也 說明了我們預(yù)測能力的薄弱，或是紡織產(chǎn)業(yè)的本質(zhì)，盡管一再地努力與掙扎，行銷與 製造的問題依舊存在，雖然市場上面臨的困境與產(chǎn)業(yè)情勢相關(guān)，但也有不少問題是我 們自己造成。 Textile operations came in well below forecast, while the results of the Illinois National Bank as well as the operating earnings attributable to our equity interest in Blue Chip Stamps were about as anticipated. However, insurance operations, led again by the truly outstanding results of Phil Liesche’s managerial group at National Indemnity Company, were even better than our optimistic expectations. 紡織事業(yè)的表現(xiàn)遠(yuǎn)低於預(yù)估，至於伊利諾國家銀行的成績以及藍(lán)籌郵票貢獻(xiàn)給我們的 投資利益則大致如預(yù)期，另外，由 Phil Liesche領(lǐng)導(dǎo)的國家產(chǎn)險(xiǎn)保險(xiǎn)業(yè)務(wù)的表現(xiàn)甚至 比我們當(dāng)初最樂觀的期望還要好。s Letters To Berkshire Shareholders 1977 巴菲特致股東函 1977 年版 BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY INC. 波克夏海瑟崴股份有限公司 To the Shareholders of Berkshire Hathaway Inc.: 致 Berkshire 公司全體股東 : Operating earnings in 1977 of $21,904,000, or $ per share, were moderately better than anticipated a year ago. Of these earnings, $ per share resulted from substantial realized capital gains by Blue Chip Stamps which, to the extent of our proportional interest in that pany, are included in our operating earnings figure. Capital gains or losses realized directly by Berkshire Hathaway Inc. or its insurance subsidiaries are not included in our calculation of operating earnings. While too much attention should not be paid to the figure for any single year, over the longer term the record regarding aggregate capital gains or losses obviously is of significance. 1977 年本公司的營業(yè)淨(jìng)利為 2,190 萬美元，每股約當(dāng) 美元，表現(xiàn)較年前的預(yù)期 稍微好一點(diǎn)，在這些盈餘中，每股有 美元的盈餘，係藍(lán)籌郵票大量實(shí)現(xiàn)的資本利 得，本公司依照投資比例認(rèn)列投資收益所貢獻(xiàn)，至於 Berkshire 本身及其保險(xiǎn)子公司 已實(shí)現(xiàn)的資本利得或損失，則不列入營業(yè)利益計(jì)算，建議大家 不必太在意單一期間的 盈餘數(shù)字，因?yàn)殚L期累積的資本利得或損失才是真正的重點(diǎn)所在。 We expect difficulty in matching our 1977 rate of return during the forthing year. Beginning equity capital is up 23% from a year ago, and we expect the trend of insurance underwriting profit margins to turn down well before the end of the year. Nevertheless, we expect a reasonably good year and our present estimate, subject to the usual caveats regarding the frailties of forecasts, is that operating earnings will improve somewhat on a per share basis during 1978. 我們預(yù)期未來年度將很難再達(dá)到 1977 年這樣的報(bào)酬率水準(zhǔn)，一方面是因?yàn)槠诔踬Y本 又增加了 23%，一方面我們預(yù)期保險(xiǎn)核保利潤率會(huì)在年底以前開始反轉(zhuǎn)，盡管如此， 大家還是可以期待豐收的一年，而我們現(xiàn)在的估計(jì)是，雖然預(yù)測有其先天上的限制， 我認(rèn)為每股營業(yè)利益在 1978 年應(yīng)該還有些許成長的空間。 Rather, this almost 600% increase has been achieved through large gains in National Indemnity’s traditional liability areas plus the starting of new panies (Cornhusker Casualty Comp