【正文】 ented equity buyer. 然而過去幾年的情況完全相反， 1975 年底我們旗下保險事業(yè)持有的股票市值與 3,930 萬美元的成本相當(dāng)，到了 1978 年底股票部位 (包含可轉(zhuǎn)換特別股 )的投資成本 增加為 億美元，市價則為 億美元，在這中間的三年內(nèi)，我們另外還實 現(xiàn)了 2,470 萬美元的資本利得，換句話說，這三年間，我們已實現(xiàn)與未實現(xiàn)的稅前資 本利得達(dá)到 億美元，相較之下道瓊指數(shù)在同一期間卻由 852 點跌至 805點，對 於 價值型投資人來說，這真是一段美好的歲月。 Although some segments were disappointing, overall our insurance operation had an excellent year. But of course we should expect a good year when the industry is flying high, as in 1978. It is a virtual certainty that in 1979 the bined ratio (see definition on page 31) for the industry will move up at least a few points, perhaps enough to throw the industry as a whole into an underwriting loss position. For example, in the auto lines by far the most important area for the industry and for us CPI figures indicate rates overall were only 3% higher in January 1979 than a year ago. But the items that make up loss costs auto repair and medical care costs were up over 9%. How different than yearend 1976 when rates had advanced over 22% in the preceding twelve months, but costs were up 8%. 雖然某些單位的績效令人感到失望，但總的來說，我們保險事業(yè)還是渡過了豐收的一 年，當(dāng)然就像 1978 年一樣，在整個產(chǎn)業(yè)預(yù)期相對樂觀的情況下，我們還是期待來年 的豐收，幾乎可以肯定的是 1979 年整個產(chǎn)業(yè)的綜合比率 (定義請參閱第 31 頁 )將會上 揚幾個百分點，甚至有可能使得整個產(chǎn)業(yè)平均面臨核保損失的情況，比如以目前產(chǎn)險 業(yè)中最重要的車險業(yè)務(wù)來說， 1979 年一月顯示消費者物價指數(shù)僅比去年同期增加 3 個百分點，但是損失成本 包含修理及醫(yī)療費用的支出卻上揚的 9 個百分點，這與 1976 年物價指數(shù)上揚 22 百分點但相關(guān)成本僅增加 8 個百分點的情況，有很大的不 同。 Worker’s Compensation was a mixed bag in 1978. In its first year as a subsidiary, Cypress Insurance Company, managed by Milt Thornton, turned in outstanding results. The worker’s pensation line can cause large underwriting losses when rapid inflation interacts with changing social concepts, but Milt has a cautious and highly professional staff to cope with these problems. His performance in 1978 has reinforced our very good feelings about this purchase. 1978 年勞工退休保險是一個混合體，在她被列為 Milt Thornton管理的 Cypress 保 險公司子公司的第一年便繳出漂亮的成績單，勞工退休保險業(yè)務(wù)在通貨膨脹加劇以及 社會觀念改變的情況下，有可能產(chǎn)生鉅額的核保損失，但 Milt 擁有一組謹(jǐn)慎且極度專 業(yè)的團(tuán)隊小心處理這些問題， 1978 年他的表現(xiàn)使我們對於買進(jìn)這項業(yè)務(wù)開始有不錯 的感覺。 We hope we don’t get into too many more businesses with such tough economic characteristics. But, as we have stated before: (1) our textile businesses are very important employers in their munities, (2) management has been straightforward in reporting on problems and energetic in attacking them, (3) labor has been cooperative and understanding in facing our mon problems, and (4) the business should average modest cash returns relative to investment. As long as these conditions prevail and we expect that they will we intend to continue to support our textile business despite more attractive alternative uses for capital. 我們希望以後不要再介入這類產(chǎn)業(yè)面臨困境的企業(yè)，但就像之前曾經(jīng)提到的，只要 (1) 該公司為當(dāng)?shù)胤浅Ｖ匾墓椭?(2)管理當(dāng)局坦誠面對困境並努力解決問題 (3)勞工體認(rèn) 現(xiàn)況並極力配合 (4)相對於投入的資金，尚能產(chǎn)生穩(wěn)定現(xiàn)金收入。 The table shows the overall earnings of each major operating category on a pretax basis (several of the businesses have low tax rates because of significant amounts of taxexempt interest and dividend ine), as well as the share of those earnings belonging to Berkshire both on a pretax and aftertax basis. Significant capital gains or losses attributable to any of the businesses are not shown in the operating earnings figure, but are aggregated on the “Realized Securities Gain” line at the bottom of the table. Because of various accounting and tax intricacies, the figures in the table should not be treated as holy writ, but rather viewed as close approximations of the 1977 and 1978 earnings contributions of our constituent businesses. 下表顯示各個主要營運單位的稅前盈餘 (有幾家公司適用的稅率較低主要的原因是免 稅的利息及股息收入 )，以下是 Berkshire 按持股比例可分得的稅前及稅後盈餘，各事 業(yè)的資本利得或損失則不 包含在營業(yè)利益之內(nèi)，而是加總列在已實現(xiàn)證券利得項下， 由於複雜的會計及稅務(wù)規(guī)定，大家不必將這些數(shù)字看得很神聖，最好是單純地把他們 當(dāng)作是旗下事業(yè)在 1977 年及 1978 年對於母公司所貢獻(xiàn)的盈餘。 For example, over the last three years generally a bonanza period for the insurance industry, our largest profit producer Berkshire’s per share worth virtually has doubled, thereby pounding at about 25% annually through a bination of good operating earnings and fairly substantial capital gains. Neither this 25% equity gain from all sources nor the % equity gain from operating earnings in 1978 is sustainable. The insurance cycle has turned downward in 1979, and it is almost certain that operating earnings measured by return on equity will fall this year. However, operating earnings measured in dollars are likely to increase on the much larger shareholders’ equity now employed in the business. 舉例來說，過去三年算是保險業(yè)的黃金歲月，這行業(yè)也是 Berkshire 獲利主要來源， 拜其所賜我們的每股淨(jìng)值呈倍數(shù)成長，每年的營業(yè)利益與資本利得約當(dāng)以 25%的速度 增加，但我們不認(rèn)為 25%的股東權(quán)益年成長或 %營業(yè)利益的年成長可以維持多 久，保險業(yè)的景氣循環(huán)已於 1979 年開始反轉(zhuǎn)向下，所以今年的營業(yè)利益相較於股東 權(quán)益的比率很有可能會下滑，當(dāng)然營業(yè)利益的金額還是會繼續(xù)增加。 This full consolidation of sales, expenses, receivables, inventories, debt, etc. produces an aggregation of figures from many diverse businesses textiles, insurance, candy, newspapers, trading stamps with dramatically different economic characteristics. In some of these your ownership is 100% but, in those businesses which are owned by Blue Chip but fully consolidated, your ownership as a Berkshire shareholder is only 58%. (Ownership by others of the balance of these businesses is accounted for by the large minority interest item on the liability side of the Balance Sheet.) Such a grouping of Balance Sheet and Earnings items some wholly owned, some partly owned tends to obscure economic reality more than illuminate it. In fact, it represents a form of presentation that we never prepare for internal use during the year and which is of no value to us in any management activities. 如此全面性地將營收、費用、應(yīng)收帳款、存貨及負(fù)債等科目合併，所產(chǎn)生的數(shù)字將來 自於各種產(chǎn)業(yè)特性截然不同的行業(yè)，包含紡織、保險、糖果、報紙及郵票等，某些行 業(yè)各位的持有的權(quán)