【正文】 which payoffs are skewed in an industry, he says. In an industry with many players, low barriers to entry and where only a small number will make a lot of money, the payoffs are highly skewed. If this is the case, you cannot afford to take a conservative approach. So winning is not about limiting the downside in situations like this. Only panies that have an appetite for risk in that industry will find themselves winning. Ultimately, then, the new thinking about risk management is being much more a strategic discussion, turning risk managers into strategists and vice versa. Strategy is making choices under conditions of uncertainty, says Rosenzweig. And you cannot make the right strategic choices without understanding your industry and how much risk you need to take on. As a result, risk management promises to bee an even more central part of managing any business. In Danone39。s what I call the Delusion of Rigorous Research if the quantity of data is impressive, we forget the underlying quality may be bad. On the other hand, welldesigned efforts to look ahead even three to five years can be stunningly prescient. Consider the annual Global Risks Report, published by the World Economic Forum in cooperation with Citigroup, Marsh amp。s internal audit late start pared with Western countries in the relevant systembuilding there are many imperfections. In order to adapt to the continuous development of modern internal audit requirements, it is necessary to strengthen the audit work of legalization and standardization construction to minimize the audit work of blindness and randomness. To ensure the independence of internal audit The independence of the internal auditor can make a fair and impartial professional judgment, which is appropriate to carry out the audit work is essential. The independence of internal audit bodies connotation should be reflected mainly in the form of independence and de facto independence in two ways. Formal independence requirements of internal audit in the organization of organizations with high status, the internal auditor should have access to senior management and board of directors support. Essentially refers to an independent internal audit staff in the spirit of the need to maintain the necessary independence, should be a fair and just manner and avoid conflicts of interest, in carrying out internal audit work, to maintain an honest belief in pliance with the Code of Ethics for the entire audit process does not make a significant promise. Making Better Decisions In the last pages of the 1996 bestseller on risk, Against the Gods, Peter Bernstein anticipated the challenge many panies are facing today. Nothing is more soothing or more persuasive than the puter screen, with its imposing arrays of numbers, glowing colors and elegantly structured graphs, he wrote. As we stare at the passing show, we bee so absorbed we tend to forget that the puter only answers questions。t even know about. Indeed, it is the systemic nature of the current crisis and how widespread the impact has been that caught most people by surprise. We were trained to solve problems with clear questions and clear scientific knowledge, says MichelKerjan. Knowing the historic risk profile, we made investment decisions. But historic data does not shape the future anymore, given how rapidly the world is changing. We usually look at the known issues and make a nice diagram with probability on one axis and impact on the other. That39。s Risk Management and Decision Processes Center. Whatever industry you consider, it is always the same pattern. Things are getting faster, and therefore we need to make decisions faster, but based on information that we often don39。s Herring. But what we have found is that major shocks and problems do not e that way. For instance, in the financial world, you would see trading desks staffed with people who were experts in market risk, but they were trading instruments that were laden with credit risk. The skills you need to think about each of those kinds of risk are very distinctive, and unless you have an integrated view of risk, you could encounter major problems. Nevertheless, risk taking remains what managing is all about, and not just in financial services but in every industry. Indeed, from an economic perspective, all firms fundamentally are in the business of taking risks based on their core capabilities. For the manager, then, the basic objective is simple: As one executive noted in Zur Shapira39。 they could not assess with any confidence the value of their own or others39。 it seems the global economy is so shaky that executives have little confidence in their projections. This means that more and more managers are growing unwilling, at least temporarily, to make judgments about the future and then to act on those beliefs. The danger is that these businesses will bee paralyzed and by extension, the global economy as well. The fundamental issue, of course, is understanding and managing risk. Any time a merger is considered, a new product concept funded or an investment made, success is never guaranteed. Over the years, business has bee increasingly sophisticated in developing tools that can help in this analysis, especially in financial matters. Complex mathematical models were created to analyze potential outes and probabilities, based on past