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【正文】 n rates, this means a high level of residential investment can be sustained for a long time in China. Davies admits that the finances of local governments – which have sold land in order to generate revenue – are a concern. They have relied heavily on the housing boom, and a turn in the market would damage their ability to meet payments. 2 The impending slowdown of the Chinese economy will also put the question of a property bubble and what it means for the banking system – in sharper focus. Meanwhile the (mooted) opening of the Chinese capital account could result in huge outflows of capital as wealthy Chinese sell mainland assets to buy up property, stocks etc overseas. In conclusion: In our view the property market is guilty of exuberance but does not yet constitute a true bubble. Hence, the rationale policy response is to proceed with capital account liberalisation while keeping an iron grip on the property market. This seems to be exactly the approach being attempted by the authorities. But one thing that sticks out is this chart, showing residential investment against fixed asset investment over the past 7 years. It makes you wonder – while
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