【正文】 bets with dual formats is not enough to limit risk。 local retailers are countering the foreign onslaught by forming their own strong conglomerates such as the Bailian Group in China, the Six Sevens alliance in Russia and the Almacenes Exito and Cadenalco merger in Columbia. What are the secrets to success? There’s no single formula—no best type of store, no best ownership structure (see sidebar: What Do They Think?). The retailers poised for growth will be those that look to the leaders in international expansion, use time as a critical strategic ponent, and demon strate flexibility during implementation. Emerging Market Priorities for Food Retailers Retailers rank flexibility and timing as the two least important factors in successful global expansion. Our analysis, however, reveals a dif ferent answer. Indeed, we found that flexibility in the implementation process is key to selecting the store format and entry model that best fits both internal strategies and external circum stances. The supermarket format dominates emerging markets today, with 56 percent of panies on average taking this approach. The hypermarket format is the fastest growing in terms of number of stores (63 percent CAGR from 1997 to 20xx). Yet our analysis shows no correlation between one type of format and international success (defined as percent of sales growth outside home market CAGR 20xx to 20xx). We remend that panies enter with two formats at the same time and monitor the market, which affords them the flexibility to emphasize one format if it shows early signs of success. For example, successful global retailers often enter with one of the following binations: hypermarket and discount。 20xx Global Retail Development Index Emerging Market for Rank Country Figure 1: . Kearney Global Retail Development Index, 20xx Current market saturation 3. Number of 2. Modern international Geographic 1. Country retail area per retailers in area risk inhabitant the country 4. Time pressure Grade 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. 17. 18. 19. 20. 21. 22. 23. 24. 25. 26. 27. 28. 29. 30. Russia Slovak Republic China Hungary India Turkey Morocco Egypt Vietnam Tunisia South Korea Chile Bulgaria Slovenia Philippines Malaysia Romania Thailand Latvia Ukraine South Africa Czech Republic Mexico Taiwan Venezuela Indonesia Hong Kong Poland Israel Colombia On the radar screen To consider Weight Eastern Europe Eastern Europe Asia Eastern Europe Asia Mediterranean Mediterranean Mediterranean Asia Mediterranean Asia Americas Eastern Europe Eastern Europe Asia Asia Eastern Europe Asia Eastern Europe Eastern Europe Africa Eastern Europe Americas Asia Americas Asia Asia Eastern Europe Mediterranean Americas To avoid 40% 51 59 67 71 48 44 55 52 49 54 67 56 48 74 52 61 46 59 61 34 55 67 61 62 36 38 78 65 61 34 0 = high risk 100 = low risk 20% 95 80 73 69 100 72 98 98 99 85 44 73 62 20 32 60 73 84 50 98 79 47 83 74 78 92 51 78 12 82 0 = saturated 100 = not saturated 20% 76 59 41 53 94 76 88 88 82 88 59 94 76 82 76 59 59 35 82 94 82 29 53 47 88 71 41 0 94 82 0 = saturated 100 = not saturated 20% 87 100 86 69 34 86 18 24 17 13 54 10 54 34 73 42 59 47 29 22 6 66 13 15 18 18 5 39 9 4 0 = no time pressure 100 = urgency to go 100% 72 71 67 67 65 64 63 63 59 59 58 58 58 57 57 57 57 56 56 56 55 55 54 52 51 51 50 49 48 47 Sources: . Kearney analysis。 hypermarket and The . Kearney Global Retail Development Index ranks 30 emerg The GRDI Methodology inhabitants (20 percent): Modern retail is defined as hypermarkets, (CAGR 1998 to 20xx). The result is ranked from 0 to 100, with 0 ing countries on a 100point scale. The higher the ranking, the more urgent it is to enter a country. The scores are based on the following variables: ? Economic and political risk (40 percent): Based on the Euromoney database, this variable is broken down as follows: political risk (25 percent), economic performance (25 percent), debt indicators (10 per cent), debt in default or rescheduled (10 percent), credit ratings (10 per cent), access to bank finance (5 per cent), access to shortterm finance (5 percent), access to capital markets (5 percent), discount in forfeiting (5 percent). A score of 0 indicates high risk, a score of 100 indicates low risk. ? Modern retail area per 1000 supermarkets and cash and carry stores. A 0 weighting means that the total retail area in the country is high, close to the average Western European level (200 square meters per 1000 inhabitants)。 changing circumstances may mandate the consideration of additional formats. The key, therefore, is in timing the switch from one format to another. In Thailand, Tesco entered with hypermarkets (Tesco Lotus), then convenience stores。 the number of international retailers present locally。 100 = low saturation) . . Key E conomic and political risk