運籌學(xué)與供應(yīng)鏈管理-第2講(文件)
【正文】 移動平均 ? 指數(shù)平滑法 315 McGrawHill/Irwin Operations Management, Seventh Edition, by William J. Stevenson Copyright 169。 20xx by The McGrawHill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. Forecasting Ch 10 15 169。 20xx by The McGrawHill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. Forecasting 選擇平滑常數(shù) 353739414345471 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12Pe r i o dDemand? ? .1 ? ? .4 實際數(shù)據(jù) 321 McGrawHill/Irwin Operations Management, Seventh Edition, by William J. Stevenson Copyright 169。 20xx by The McGrawHill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. Forecasting Ch 10 25 169。 20xx by The McGrawHill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. Forecasting 關(guān)聯(lián)預(yù)測 ? 有關(guān)的變量 – 預(yù)示這些量的值 ? 回歸分析 – 用一條線去擬合一組點集 ? 最小二乘法 – 使線與點間的距離平方和最小 327 McGrawHill/Irwin Operations Management, Seventh Edition, by William J. Stevenson Copyright 169。 20xx by The McGrawHill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. Forecasting Ch 10 38 169。 20xx by The McGrawHill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. Forecasting Ch 10 40 169。 MSE MAD = 實際值 預(yù)測值 ? ? n MSE = 實際值 預(yù)測值 ) 1 2 ? ? n ( 334 McGrawHill/Irwin Operations Management, Seventh Edition, by William J. Stevenson Copyright 169。 20xx by The McGrawHill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. Forecasting 預(yù)測精度 ? 誤差 – 實際值與預(yù)測值之間的偏差 ? 絕對平均偏差 (MAD) –誤差的絕對值的平均值 ? 均方差 (MSE) –誤差的平方的平均值 ? 跟蹤信號 –累計誤差與 MAD 之間的比率 333 McGrawHill/Irwin Operations Management, Seventh Edition, by William J. Stevenson Copyright 169。 20xx by The McGrawHill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. Forecasting Ch 10 39 169。 20xx by The McGrawHill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. Forecasting Ch 10 37 169。 20xx by The McGrawHill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. Forecasting Ch 10 26 169。 20xx by The McGrawHill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. Forecasting 線性趨勢方程舉例 t y 周 t2 銷售 ty 1 1 150 150 2 4 157 314 3 9 162 486 4 16 166 664 5 25 177 885 ? t = 15 ? t2 = 55 ? y = 812 ? ty = 24 99 ( ? t)2 = 225 323 McGrawHill/Irwin Operations Management, Seventh Edition, by William J. Stevenson Copyright 169。 20xx by The McGrawHill Companies, Inc. All rig
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