中國(guó)全要素生產(chǎn)率估算與分析課件-wenkub
2023-04-01 18:11:07 本頁(yè)面
【正文】 Its main characteristic is in generating growth mostly through the expansion of inputs and only marginally through rises in productivity. Emphasis on input growth has been a stratgic decision of Soviet policy makers from the beginning. the relatively small contribution of productivity growth, is clearly an undesirable and unintended outcoome. 2. The East Asian productivity debate (Krugman, 1994) The newly industrializing countries of Asia, like the Soviet Union of the 1950s, have achieved rapid growth in large part through an astonishing mobilization of resources. Once one accounts for the role of rapidly growing inputs in thse countries’ growth, one finds little left to explain. Asian growth, like that of the Soviet Union in its highgrowth era, seems to be driven by extraordinary growth in inputs like labor and capital rather than by gains in efficiency. The East Asian cases (Young, 1995) Hong Kong (19611991) Singapore (19661990) TFP growth: South Korea (19601990) TFP growth: Taiwan (19661990) Young’s conclusion Once one accounts for the dramatic rise in factor inputs, one arrives at estimated total factor productivity growth rates that are closely approximated by the historical performance of many of the OECD and Latin American economies. While the growth of output and manufacturing exports in the newly industrializing countries of East Asia is virtually unprecedented, the growth of total factor productivity in these economies is not. 3. China (World Bank, 1997) Three features of China’s rapid growth The first is its regional dimention The second is the sharp cyclical pattern of economic growth. The third noteworth feature of China’s growth since 1978 is its reliance on productivity growth. China 2023 (World Bank, 1997) Relative to other rapidly growing Asian economies, China’s growth has been less dependent on volume increases in inputs of capital and labor. Consider, for example, growth in the stock of pysical capital. In most countries growth in capital inputs exceeds GDP growth, often by a substantial margin. In China the reverse occurred, suggesting that factors other than capital accumulation have been important determinants of GDP growth. Accounting for China’s growth Young (2023) Accepting all the numbers the statisticians of the PRC produce, but making systematic adjustments using their own data, I show that one can a) Reduce the growth rate during the reform period to levels previously experienced by other rapidly growing economies, so that b) Once one takes into account rising labor force participation, the transfer of labor out of agriculture, and improvements in educational attainment, TFP growth in the nonagricultural economy is found to be % per year。由于過(guò)度的投資和過(guò)度的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)，企業(yè)的技術(shù)選擇顯示出資本替代勞動(dòng)的偏差，使技術(shù)路徑逐步偏離了要素的自然結(jié)構(gòu)，資本 勞動(dòng)比率持續(xù)上升，加快了資本的深化過(guò)程，導(dǎo)致了投資收益率的持續(xù)而顯著的惡化。 面對(duì)石油與電力的極度缺乏，以“重化工”為主導(dǎo)的粗放型增長(zhǎng)不會(huì)長(zhǎng)期有效地解決就業(yè)問(wèn)題，相反，只會(huì)引起全國(guó)性的能源損耗。 產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)當(dāng)然會(huì)不斷升級(jí)，但這一輪重工業(yè)化應(yīng)該講還是有點(diǎn)走進(jìn)了岔路。 據(jù)統(tǒng)計(jì)，重工業(yè)每 1億人民幣的投資可創(chuàng)造 5000個(gè)就業(yè)機(jī)會(huì)，輕工業(yè)同樣的投入?yún)s能創(chuàng)造出三倍的就業(yè)崗位。 （經(jīng)濟(jì)參考報(bào) 2023年 12月 22日） 馬凱 ： 轉(zhuǎn)變經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)方式 從這次宏觀調(diào)控的實(shí)踐來(lái)看，經(jīng)濟(jì)結(jié)構(gòu)不合理、增長(zhǎng)方式粗放，是造成投資盲目擴(kuò)張、煤電油運(yùn)緊張等問(wèn)題的深層次重要原因，加快經(jīng)濟(jì)結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整、轉(zhuǎn)變經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)方式已刻不容緩。支持大型鋼鐵企業(yè)聯(lián)合重組和建立精品鋼材生產(chǎn)基地。將抓緊制定并組織實(shí)施加快我國(guó)服務(wù)業(yè)發(fā)展與改革實(shí)施意見(jiàn)，深化服務(wù)業(yè)各領(lǐng)域的產(chǎn)業(yè)分工，引導(dǎo)服務(wù)業(yè)向?qū)I(yè)化方向發(fā)展。 , April 1, 2023 雨中黃葉樹(shù)，燈下白頭人。 :09:1800:09:18April 1, 2023 1他鄉(xiāng)生白發(fā)，舊國(guó)見(jiàn)
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