【正文】 orts to US, confirming recessionary pressures Asia Pacific Direct: exports to US critical to Japanese Korean automakers, with weaker $ hurting repatriation even at stable volumes Indirect: overall weaker regional macro environment due to reduced overall exports to US, exerting recessionary pressures South America Direct: limited impact Indirect: global economic weakness likely to undermine already fragile regional macro environment Direct: automotive trade impact Indirect: macroeconomic other impacts 5 169。AsiaPacific Automotive Outlook 2 169。 2023 PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP. All rights reserved. AsiaPacific economic growth remains dependent on exports and hence on the continued economic vitality of North America. A significant downturn, especially in the US, would have a direct negative effect on the region. Terrorist Attacks’ Effect on AsiaPacific Automotive Industry Baseline scenario: Asia growth is flat from 2023 to 2023, due to previously expected continued decline in Japan and slight decrease in output from South Korea ? Overall regional growth returns to a conservative % in 2023 ? Downside scenario: if a significant decline in US market occurs in 2023 due to weakening economic conditions, expected AsiaPacific growth in 2023 could disappear due to reduced US import demand and a setback in Asian economic recovery trends ? Drop in value of the dollar may remove Korean and Japanese exchange rate advantage, impacting profitability for Asian automakers and threatening the market opportunities their price advantage has given them ? However, Korean market share in NA market could increase if economic conditions get worse in near term (next six months and beyond) as lower cost, high value offerings from HyundaiKia bee higher on consumers? need to buy versus want to buy list Drivers of positive Asian market growth retain some independence from potential US spillover ? China WTO entry in late 2023 will increase intraregional export growth opportunities to China beginning in 20232023, although limited by likely Chinese government willingness to incur WTO sanctions to protect local industry ? ASEAN economic growth and full implementation of AFTA hold promise for local automotive industries ? Many manufacturers will be rolling out regional manufacturing plans to take advantage of reduced protective tariffs ? Still, the improving, yet still shaky emerging market economies are very much at risk if global economy falters 6 169。 2023 PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP. All rights reserved. D a e w o oDCXF o r dGMH o n d aR e n a u l tT o y o taVW5001 , 0 0 01 , 5 0 02 , 0 0 02 , 5 0 03 , 0 0 03 , 5 0 04 , 0 0 04 , 5 0 05 , 0 0 05 , 5 0 06 , 0 0 06 , 5 0 040% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%U ti l i za ti o nCapacity (000s)80% DCX, GM, Renault acquiring regional scale through Japanese and Korean partners。 2023 PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP. All rights reserved. Upside Scenario: AFTA successfully implemented, regional trade grows, governments allow businesses to make difficult choices (unpetitive panies fail, old and excess capacity eliminated), China serves as engine for regional growth, and political and economic stability maintained across the region. If all this occurs, ASEAN will be key global growth region, a resurgent tiger, and will significantly exceed baseline volume predictions. Downside Scenario: AFTA fails due to countries pursuing own interests above region, China deflects significant growth from region, political upheaval and economic volatility continues, international or regional economic or political upheaval infects region. In worst case scenario, ASEAN exposed as poor location for highvolume auto production due to lack of scale versus other potential assembly sites (esp. China) and significant parts of 1990s auto investment proves unsustainable in the long run. ASEAN Business Environment ASEAN an inplete attempt to form a successful regional trading bloc ? Composed of hugely disparate countries: economically, religiously, ethnically ? Geography the only mon