【正文】 .......................................IABSTRACT .................................................................II目 錄 ..................................................................III第一章 緒 論 ............................................................1 工程背景和研究對象 ...................................................................................................................................1 文獻綜述 .......................................................................................................................................................1 國內(nèi)外的風險認識和研究 ...................................................................................................................1 電力風險研究應用價值 .......................................................................................................................6 本文研究的內(nèi)容和研究的方法 ...................................................................................................................8 本章小結(jié) .....................................................................................................................................................10第二章 電力項目風險分析 .................................................11 電力項目特點 .............................................................................................................................................11 項目風險識別的主要方法和步驟 .....................................................................................................12 電力項目風險識別工作重點 .............................................................................................................13 電力項目風險產(chǎn)生 .....................................................................................................................................13 電力工程項目階段劃分 .....................................................................................................................13 電力項目的風險產(chǎn)生原因 .................................................................................................................14 電力工程項目風險分析 .............................................................................................................................15 項目風險來源 .....................................................................................................................................15 電力建設項目的風險事件 .................................................................................................................16 電力工程項目風險量化分析 .............................................................................................................17 電力項目風險的規(guī)避 .........................................................................................................................18 本章小結(jié) .....................................................................................................................................................21第三章 MMPP 公司技改工程概述以及外部環(huán)境 .................................22 項目概況 .....................................................................................................................................................22 本項目主要技術 .........................................................................................................................................24 水煤漿燃燒技術 .................................................................................................................................24 建設場地與布置 .................................................................................................................................24 技術風險分析 .....................................................................................................................................25 外部經(jīng)濟環(huán)境和電力系統(tǒng)現(xiàn)狀 .................................................................................................................25 廣東省經(jīng)濟以及廣東電網(wǎng)現(xiàn)狀 .........................................................................................................25 MMPP 公司送出現(xiàn)狀 ..........................................................................................................................26 廣東電網(wǎng)供需現(xiàn)狀以及電力需求預測 .............................................................................................26 廣東省內(nèi)電源規(guī)劃以及電力平衡 .....................................................................................................27 環(huán)境保護 .............................................................................................................................................29 風險分析 .............................................................................................................................................30 本章小結(jié) .....................................................................................................................................................32第四章 項目接入系統(tǒng)方案優(yōu)選 .............................................33 接入系統(tǒng)備選方案概述 .............................................................................................................................33 邏輯模型和數(shù)學模型 .................................................................................................................................34 MONTECARLO 仿真 .....................................................................................................................................37 仿真模型假設條件 .............................................................................................................................37 Monte Carlo 仿真結(jié)果和分析 .............................................................................................................37 本章小結(jié) .....................................................................................................................................................40第五章 經(jīng)濟環(huán)境、自然環(huán)境及進度風險分析 .................................41 煤源、煤質(zhì)和機組耗煤量、煤價、運輸條件及風險分析 .....................................................................41 自然氣候條件 .............................................................................................................................................43 項目施工