【正文】 工 程 碩 士 學(xué) 位 論 文MonteCarloNPV 方法在某電力技改項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險(xiǎn)研究中的應(yīng)用摘 要改革開放以來，電力產(chǎn)業(yè)作為支持經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的一個(gè)重要基礎(chǔ)產(chǎn)業(yè)得到快速發(fā)展，它與國民經(jīng)濟(jì)的健康發(fā)展和人民的日常生活息息相關(guān)。為適應(yīng)新形勢(shì)的需要，國家對(duì)國家電力投資體制進(jìn)行改革。2022 年，國家推行新的電力體制改革，實(shí)行“廠網(wǎng)分離，多家辦電” 。電力投資主體出現(xiàn)多元化趨勢(shì)，為保證投資者利益的需要，對(duì)電力項(xiàng)目的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)進(jìn)行系統(tǒng)的評(píng)估，顯得非常重要。MMPP 公司目前有兩臺(tái) 225MW 機(jī)組，原為煤粉爐后改燒油經(jīng)過近期油改煤，已改燒水煤漿，機(jī)組承擔(dān)向 MMPCC 公司供熱任務(wù)。還有兩臺(tái) 2100MW（2410t/h燃油爐）凝汽機(jī)組，正改燃油為燒水煤漿，一臺(tái) 1200MW 燃煤供熱機(jī)組；向MMPCC 公司供汽量 160t/h。作為 Xxx 市工業(yè)區(qū)集中供熱點(diǎn)， MMPP 公司自建成后一直承擔(dān)向 MMPCC 公司及臨近工業(yè)區(qū)用戶供熱的任務(wù)。由于 2 號(hào)機(jī)組自投產(chǎn)后，經(jīng)過 40 多年的運(yùn)行，機(jī)組設(shè)備老化，給生產(chǎn)帶來不可預(yù)見的安全隱患。為了發(fā)揮燒油改燒水煤漿整套工藝設(shè)備的經(jīng)濟(jì)效益，充分利用改造運(yùn)行不久的燒水煤漿設(shè)備，達(dá)到投資省，見效快，又滿足電力的需求，公司經(jīng)過多次論證提出將 2 號(hào)主機(jī)拆除，保留改造燒水煤漿 2220t/h 鍋爐，新上 1 臺(tái) 100MW 抽汽供熱機(jī)組（簡稱新 1 號(hào)機(jī)） ，既能達(dá)到“上大壓小”目的又能滿足 MMPCC 公司供汽需求。與現(xiàn)代 600MW 以上的大型機(jī)組相比，該項(xiàng)目投資相對(duì)少，見效快，按照現(xiàn)行的政策，回收期短，但由于機(jī)組煤耗要比大型機(jī)組高，材料的成本也比燃煤機(jī)組高，因此存在一定的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，如果沒有政策支持將失去競爭力，甚至失敗。本文根據(jù)上述電建項(xiàng)目，對(duì)電力建設(shè)項(xiàng)目各個(gè)方面進(jìn)行了闡述并對(duì)可能存在的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)進(jìn)行展開討論。本文還采用蒙特卡洛靜現(xiàn)值方法結(jié)合該電力項(xiàng)目中政治政策、環(huán)境、技術(shù)、施工、市場等方面可能面臨的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)進(jìn)行風(fēng)險(xiǎn)建模分析和計(jì)算，對(duì)電力項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險(xiǎn)進(jìn)行比較深入的剖析和探討，并作出了初步風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)。關(guān)鍵詞：風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估；電力項(xiàng)目；蒙特卡洛；凈現(xiàn)值A(chǔ)bstractAs the basic industry in the national economics, the electric power industry developed very fast during the economic reformation of China, and it was concerned to the people’s livelihood. Because of the increasing consumption of electric power and the lack of energy resources, the electric power industry faces a lot of problems such as environment problems international problems. In order to establish a powerful and Sustainable Development electric power industry, in 2022, the government started the new reform in the electric power industry, the national electric pany was separated into Plants and Grids, and the investor was not only the nation, but also the other investors including private and foreigners. MMPP Company owns 225MW，2100MW，1 200MW unites，the oil boiler of 225MW units had changed to coal water mixture boiler，As the central HeatProvider, units also provides the steam to MMPCC Company。Because of the long working time (about 40 years), the generator units face the unpredictable risks. In order to taking advantage of the coal water mixture technology, and getting more profit from it，the pany plan to erase the old units, and establish a new one(100MW). pared with 600MW or above units， the project invest is parative small, and the period of return will be short. In the other hand, because of the coal loss will be higher, so the project will face a lot of risks, without the political support, the project may fail. Base on the project above, this paper first describes the features of the electric power system, and the risk analysis history on electric power projects. Secondly the paper presents the MonteCarloNPV ( present value) simulation method used in the project risk analysis。 finally the paper establishes a risk analysis model of the project above and gives the final risk assessment.Keywords：Risk Assessment，Electric Power Project，MonteCarlo Simulation ，NPV目 錄摘 要 ....................................................................IABSTRACT .................................................................II目 錄 ..................................................................III第一章 緒 論 ............................................................1 工程背景和研究對(duì)象 ...................................................................................................................................1 文獻(xiàn)綜述 .......................................................................................................................................................1 國內(nèi)外的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)認(rèn)識(shí)和研究 ...................................................................................................................1 電力風(fēng)險(xiǎn)研究應(yīng)用價(jià)值 .......................................................................................................................6 本文研究的內(nèi)容和研究的方法 ...................................................................................................................8 本章小結(jié) .....................................................................................................................................................10第二章 電力項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分析 .................................................11 電力項(xiàng)目特點(diǎn) .............................................................................................................................................11 項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險(xiǎn)識(shí)別的主要方法和步驟 .....................................................................................................12 電力項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險(xiǎn)識(shí)別工作重點(diǎn) .............................................................................................................13 電力項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險(xiǎn)產(chǎn)生 .....................................................................................................................................13 電力工程項(xiàng)目階段劃分 .....................................................................................................................13 電力項(xiàng)目的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)產(chǎn)生原因 .................................................................................................................14 電力工程項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分析 .............................................................................................................................15 項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險(xiǎn)來源 .....................................................................................................................................15 電力建設(shè)項(xiàng)目的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)事件 .................................................................................................................16 電力工程項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險(xiǎn)量化分析 .............................................................................................................17 電力項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的規(guī)避 .........................................................................................................................18 本章小結(jié) .....................................................................................................................................................21第三章 MMPP 公司技改工程概述以及外部環(huán)境 .................................22 項(xiàng)目概況 ....................................................................................................................................