【正文】 I 用管道長距離輸 送原油是 一種 經(jīng)濟(jì)的運輸方式，但由于 原油 易燃 、 毒性等特點，一旦發(fā)生事故，容易引起火災(zāi) 、 中毒、污染環(huán)境等惡性后果 。 特別在人口稠密地區(qū)，此類事故往往會造成嚴(yán)重傷亡及重大經(jīng)濟(jì)損失，同時帶來惡劣的社會及政治影響。 影響 埋地原油管 道系統(tǒng)安全性的風(fēng)險因素眾多，關(guān)系錯綜復(fù)雜。 因此 首先采用故障樹分析方法對原油管線進(jìn)行定性分析，理順各風(fēng)險因素之間的關(guān)系，找出管道系統(tǒng)常見的失效形式和最重要的風(fēng)險因素。 在對 原油管 道系統(tǒng) 進(jìn)行 定性的 危害辨識之后， 本文 對 目前普遍應(yīng)用的半定量風(fēng)險評價技術(shù) — 管道風(fēng)險評分法 進(jìn)行了深入研究。通過 廣泛的調(diào)研，結(jié)合我國陸上原油管道的具體情況對該方法進(jìn)行了改進(jìn)。 新增加 了 自 然災(zāi)害（人為導(dǎo)致）、保護(hù)工、設(shè)計合理性等風(fēng)險因素， 并重新分配各風(fēng)險因素的權(quán)重。 使管道風(fēng)險評分法更全面、更合理， 更 適用于原油管道系統(tǒng)的風(fēng)險評價。 對原油管道系統(tǒng)各管段相對風(fēng)險可接受性 評估理論 進(jìn)行研究 ，采用正態(tài)分布的性質(zhì)計算 判斷準(zhǔn)則， 給出計算方法。 其次， 考慮到輸油管 道 一旦發(fā)生失效泄漏可能造成非常嚴(yán)重的后果 ， 文 中 對管輸產(chǎn)品的泄漏 規(guī)律 、擴(kuò)散規(guī)律和災(zāi)害評估理論進(jìn)行總結(jié)分析，建立 起 輸油管 道 泄漏擴(kuò)散災(zāi)害評估理論體系 。 并 在此基礎(chǔ)上開發(fā)出《輸油管道泄漏災(zāi) 害評估系統(tǒng)》。 利用 該 系統(tǒng) 可以做 事故前模擬和事故后評估 。以模擬評估結(jié)果為依據(jù)制定相應(yīng)的應(yīng)急預(yù)案， 在泄漏事故發(fā)生時可迅速判斷 災(zāi)害 范圍和程度， 為減少事故損失，降低事故影響提供幫助。 最后，利用前面研究的理論成果對“馬 廣”長輸原油管線進(jìn)行風(fēng)險評價，找出四大指數(shù)高風(fēng)險管段、高失效 風(fēng)險 管段、 高 泄漏后果管段和綜合 風(fēng)險最高的 管段， 并對各管段 的 風(fēng)險可接受 性 進(jìn)行評 估 。 通過 將風(fēng)險評價結(jié)果與 “馬 廣”長輸原油管線事故統(tǒng)計資料和日常運行維護(hù)經(jīng)驗進(jìn)行 對比 ， 本文所研究的 改進(jìn) 原油 管道風(fēng)險評價方法能 找出高風(fēng)險管段，確定出重大風(fēng)險及其主要 影響因素 ，評價結(jié)果能夠滿足工程要求 。 因此，該方法 可以 適用于 長輸原油管線 系統(tǒng)的 風(fēng)險評價，可以 為管道經(jīng)營者制定降低風(fēng)險措施和管理決策提供理論依據(jù)。 關(guān)鍵詞： 原油管線； 風(fēng)險 評估 ；災(zāi)害評估 ；評估系統(tǒng)；故障樹分析II Abstract Long distance pipeline transportation of crude oil is a economical mode of transport, but because of the flammable,toxic characteristic, once the system has an accident, it is easy to cause malignant consequences such as fire, poisoning, environmental pollution. Particularly in densely populated areas, and such accidents often cause serious injuries and significant economic losses, also brought adverse social and political influence. Risk factors of influence buried oil pipeline system security is numerous, theirs relations is intricate. Firstly,we adopts the method of fault tree analysis to qualitative analyse crude oil pipeline in this paper, and straighten out the relationship between the various risk factors, and find out mon failure form of pipe system and the most important risk factors. After hazard identify crude oil pipeline system, this paper studied semiquantitative risk assessment techniques which acquire widely applied pipeline risk score extensive investigation, and in bination with the specific conditions of onshore oil pipeline,we made improvement of the method. Made pipeline risk evaluation method is more prehensive, more reasonable and more applicable for crude oil pipeline system risk evaluation. Studied theory of risk acceptably assessment of the crude oil pipeline system ,calculated using normal distribution criterion, given calculation. Secondly, considering the event of failure of pipeline leak can cause very serious this paper, we analyzed the leak rules, conveying diffusion rule and hazard analysis theory, establish the theory system of leak diffusion and disaster on this basis to develop pipeline leak disaster assessment system. Using this system can do simulation before the accident and evaluation after the on simulation assessment results to formulate the corresponding emergency plans, which can rapidly judgment disaster’s scope and extent when leaking accident occurs, reduce accident loss of accident. Finally, we made risk assessments on the MaGuang longdistance crude oil pipelines by using the theoretical results of previous researches to find out the highrisk section of the four indices, the high likelihood section of pipe failure, the section of the most serious consequences of leakage and highrisk pipe, then put forward measures to reduce risks. Through the parison of the risk assessment results with the accident statistics and the daily operation and maintenance experience of MaGuang longdistance crude oil pipelines, the method which is studed in this paper can accurately find out highrisk pipe and determine significant risks and main factors. Therefore, it can show that this method can meet longdistance oil pipeline risk assessment requirements, the result is reasonable and accurate and can provide a theoretical basis for pipeline operators to formulate risk reduction measures and management decisions. Key words： Crude oil pipeline。 Risk assessment。 Disaster assessment。 Assessment system。 Fault tree analysis III 目 錄 第 1 章 緒論 .......................................................... 1 課題來源 ....................................................... 1 研究的目的及意義 ............................................... 1 增加管道系統(tǒng)運行的安全性 ................................... 1 提高管道公司運營的經(jīng)濟(jì)性 ................................... 1 國內(nèi)外研究現(xiàn)狀 ................................................. 2 國外研究現(xiàn)狀 ............................................... 2 國內(nèi)研究現(xiàn)狀 ............................................... 2 主要研究內(nèi)容及技術(shù)路線 ......................................... 3 主要研究內(nèi)容 ............................................... 3 技術(shù)路線 ................................................... 4 第 2 章 原油管線危害辨識故障樹分析研究 ................................ 5 基本概念 ....................................................... 5 陸上原油管線失效故障樹分析 ..................................... 5 陸上原油管線失效故障樹的建立 ............................... 6 陸上原油管線失效故障樹的定性分析 ........................... 8 第 3 章 輸油管線相對失效風(fēng)險計算方法研究 .............................. 9 管道風(fēng)險評分法概述 ............................................. 9 管道風(fēng)險評分法的基本模型 ................................... 9 管線分段 ................................................... 9 輸油管線相對失效風(fēng)險的計算 .................................... 10 第三方破壞指數(shù)評分 ........................................ 10 腐蝕指數(shù)評分 .............................................. 14 設(shè)計指數(shù)評分 .............................................. 22 誤操作指數(shù)評分 ............................................ 27 輸油管線相對失效風(fēng)險 ...................................... 31 第 4 章 輸油管線相對失效后果及相對風(fēng)險研究 ........................... 32 概述 .......................................................... 32 泄漏后果指數(shù)的評定 ............................................ 32 產(chǎn)品危 害 ....................................