【正文】 THE BOSTON CONSULTING GROUP P:\MasterDk\ BCG?s Value Management Framework An Overview for MBA Rt rt (Ppt) Slide 1 March 2, 1998 2:01 PM 1 Copyright 1996 BCG/HOLT Planning Associates All Rights Reserved BCG?S VALUE MANAGEMENT FRAMEWORK AN OVERVIEW FOR MBA STUDENTS By Rawley Thomas Director of Research The Boston Consulting Group 200 South Wacker Drive Chicago, Illinois 60606 3126272618 THE BOSTON CONSULTING GROUP P:\MasterDk\ BCG?s Value Management Framework An Overview for MBA Rt rt (Ppt) Slide 2 March 2, 1998 2:01 PM 2 Copyright 1996 BCG/HOLT Planning Associates All Rights Reserved WHAT GETS MEASURED GETS DONE THE BOSTON CONSULTING GROUP P:\MasterDk\ BCG?s Value Management Framework An Overview for MBA Rt rt (Ppt) Slide 3 March 2, 1998 2:01 PM 3 Copyright 1996 BCG/HOLT Planning Associates All Rights Reserved Traditional Valuation Techniques Versus BCG?s Valuation Framework Traditional Valuation Techniques Forecast nominal cash flows by estimating PL line items and changes to the balance sheet Estimate terminal value with a perpetuity of the forecasted last year?s cash flow Determine cost of capital by weighting equity CAPM cost with debt cost Discount the cash flows and terminal value to present value with the weighted average cost of capital Observations on Missing Elements No performance measure to determine if the business is achieving returns above or below the cost of capital or if the trend in those returns is up or down No fade in performance to determine likely cash flows in a petitive environment Discount rates determined by past price changes, not future likely cash flows No extensive empirical testing BCG?s Valuation Framework Translate accounting statements to gross cash flows and gross cash investments in constant dollars to produce cash on cash returns Translate cash on cash returns to economic performance measures (CFROIs) by adjusting for asset life and mix of depreciating versus nondepreciating assets Determine sustainable asset growth rates Fade CFROIs and asset growth rates toward corporate averages consistent with life cycle theory and empirical evidence to estimate future cash flows (replaces terminal valuation) Estimate market derived real discount rate by equating the present value of the cash flows for a large aggregate to the sum of the prices of debt and equity Apply the market derived discount rate to the cash flows derived from fading economic performance to determine market valuation。 subtract debt to determine equity valuation Test model values against actual stock prices for thousands of firms for 1040 years across many countries。 refine, refine, refine THE BOSTON CONSULTING GROUP P:\MasterDk\ BCG?s Value Management Framework An Overview for MBA Rt rt (Ppt) Slide 4 March 2, 1998 2:01 PM 4 Copyright 1996 BCG/HOLT Planning Associates All Rights Reserved MANY ASSETS FOLLOW THE SAME USEFUL OUTPUT PATTERN AS A CAR ... 0 . 00 . 10 . 20 . 30 . 40 . 50 . 60 . 70 . 80 . 91 . 00 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Ye a rU s e fu lO u tp u t(o rSu r v i v o r s )Constant Dollar Level Annuity Economic Life Likely Actual Output Output Decline with Straight Line Depreciation THE BOSTON CONSULTING GROUP P:\MasterDk\ BCG?s Value Management Framework An Overview for MBA Rt rt (Ppt) Slide 5 March 2, 1998 2:01 PM 5 Copyright 1996 BCG/HOLT Planning Associates All Rights Reserved ISSUES WITH TRADITIONAL RETURN MEASURES (*) Economic depreciation = amount of annual sinkingfund payment earning COC required to replace assets ($357 = {[ 1)](12,000 2,000)}) Investment profile of a new plant Subsequent annual measurement Yr 1 Yr 6 Yr 12 Ine 843 843 843 Depreciation 714 714 714 Cash flow 1,557 1,557 1,557 Cash invested 12,000 12,000 12,000 Book capital 11,286 7,716 3,432 ROCE (%) ROGI (%) 13 13 13 CFROI (%) 10 10 10 ROCE = Ine/book capital ROGI = Cash flow/ cash invested CFROI = (Cash flow economic depreciation(*))/cash invested $12,000 $1,557 $2,000 IRR = 10% THE BOSTON CONSULTING GROUP P:\MasterDk\ BCG?s Value Management Framework An Overview for MBA Rt rt (Ppt) Slide 6 March 2, 1998 2:01 PM 6 Copyright 1996 BCG/HOLT Planning Associates All Rights Reserved Yr 1 Yr 6 Yr 12 NOPAT(1) 843 843 843 Book capital(2) 11,286 7,716 3,432 Cost of capital(3) x10% x10% x10% Capital charge(4) 1,129 772 343 EVA(14) (286) 71 500 Cash flow(6) 1,557 1,557 1,557 Cash invested(7) 12,000 12,000 12,000 Cost of capital(8) x10% x10% x10% Capital charge(9) 1,200 1,200 1,200 Economic dep.(*)(10) 357 357 357 CVA(6910) 0 0 0 VALUEADDED MEASURES REFLECT RETURN, COST OF CAPITAL AND SIZE Return on New Plant—Measured Over Time (*) Economic depreciation = amount of annual sinking fund payment earning COC required to replace assets ($357 = {[( 1)](12,000 2,000)}) Investment profile of a new plant $12,000 $1,557 $2,000 IRR = 10% THE BOSTON CONSULTING GROUP P:\MasterDk\ BCG?s Value Management Framework An Overview for MBA Rt rt (Ppt) Slide 7 March 2, 1998 2:01 PM 7 Copyright 1996 BCG/HOLT Planning Associates All Rights Reserved A c c o u n t in g M e a s u r e s F a il( E .P .S . G r o w t h )V a lu e L in e I n d u s t r ia ls 1 9 9 4R2 = 0 . 0 7051015202530354045501 0 0 8 0 6 0 4 0 2 0 0 20 40 60 80 100 E .P .S . G r o w t h 1 9 9 3 1 9 9 4Price/EarningsA c c o u n t in g M e a s u r e s F a il( RO E S p r e a d )V a lu e L in e I n d u s t r ia ls 1 9 9 4R2 = 0 . 3 30 . 11105 0