【正文】 I / 49?基于決策樹的企業(yè)投資方案決策分析摘要：隨著信息化水平的提高，人們對(duì)決策的科學(xué)性的要求程度越來(lái)越高，以往的靠決策者個(gè)人意志左右的決策已經(jīng)不能適應(yīng)復(fù)雜多變的決策環(huán)境了，本文依據(jù)投資決策的部分流程，對(duì)企業(yè)投資決策選擇、投資方案選擇進(jìn)行了研究。全文從 A 企業(yè)的投資案例出發(fā)，對(duì)企業(yè)投資方案的決策進(jìn)行了分析，建立了以 excel、決策樹、水晶球?yàn)橐劳械耐顿Y決策模型，解決了企業(yè)在面臨多個(gè)層次、多種方案決策問題時(shí)的決策問題，以及以此為II / 49依據(jù)進(jìn)行的概率分步模擬的決策問題。 同時(shí)，在目前市場(chǎng)競(jìng)爭(zhēng)激烈、投資成本不斷攀升的情況下，如何正確選取投資的方案也受到越來(lái)越多的企業(yè)的關(guān)注。本文針對(duì)目前企業(yè)投資規(guī)劃階段出現(xiàn)的盲目確定方案的現(xiàn)狀，對(duì)投資的決策和方案的選擇進(jìn)行了研究，并通過(guò)建立基于決策樹的數(shù)學(xué)模型對(duì)這種選擇進(jìn)行“量化” ，希望能夠有效地降低決策過(guò)程中的主觀隨意性。 本文主要完成了以下幾項(xiàng)工作：(1) 明確了企業(yè)投資決策的概念，分析了決策分析及決策樹的理論基礎(chǔ)，解析了在進(jìn)行投資決策時(shí)的所面臨的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，以及決策樹和水晶球模擬的基本原理和建模步驟。通過(guò)對(duì)企業(yè)投資方案選擇的分析，規(guī)劃出了各個(gè)方案的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)圖。(2) 以企業(yè)投資決策分析為主線，結(jié)合投資案例，建立了基于決策樹的多層次模型和基于水晶球模擬的預(yù)測(cè)模型。(3) 本文運(yùn)用理論聯(lián)系實(shí)際的方法對(duì)上述內(nèi)容進(jìn)行了探討和研究，為不斷地改進(jìn)完善我國(guó)現(xiàn)階段企業(yè)投資決策方法提出了可行的方法和建議。關(guān)鍵詞：決策分析；決策樹；風(fēng)險(xiǎn)；模擬Decision Analysis of the enterprise’s investment Based on Decision Tree ModelAbstract：With the improvement of informatization level, people’s scientific demands on the decision making are more and more high, in the past, the individual will by policymakers around by decision can not adapt to the plex and changeable decision environment already, based on the part process, investment decision of enterprise investment choices, investment scheme III / 49selection is studied. From A corporate investments case, to analysis the risk, the paper builds rely on excel, decisionmaking tree, crystal balls, building the investment decision making model, solved in the face of multiple levels and enterprises of the decision making problem decisionmaking problem and how it can be simulated problems’ probability.Meanwhile, in the current market petition is intense, investment costs rising cases, how to correctly select investment project is also receiving more and more attention from enterprises. In view of present enterprise investment planning stages of the blind sure scheme situation, investment decisions and options are studied, and by establishing the mathematical model based on the decision tree for this choice, hope to the quantization effectively reduce the decision process of subjective freedom. This article mainly pleted a few job below: (1) Clear the enterprise investment decisions, analyzes the concept of decision analysis and decision tree, analyzes the theoretical basis of the investment decisions of the risks they might face, then analyzes decision tree and crystal ball simulation of basic principle and modeling steps. Based on the analysis of the enterprise investment scheme selection and planning out the risk map of each scheme figure. (2) To enterprise investment decision analysis, bining the investment case, build the multilevel model based on decision tree and forecast model. based on crystal ball simulated. (3) This paper uses the theory with the practice of the above content method is discussed and studied, which constantly improving and perfecting our country present stage enterprise investment decisionmaking method proposed the feasible methods and suggestions.Keywords: decision analysis。 decision tree。 risks。 simulate I / 49目 錄摘要： ......................................................................IAbstract ...................................................................II1 引言 ......................................................................1 研究的背景、目的及意義 ................................................1 研究背景 ..........................................................1 研究的目的及意義 ..................................................2 研究的方法及論文的結(jié)構(gòu) ................................................3 研究的對(duì)象及內(nèi)容 ......................................................62 決策分析及決策樹的相關(guān)概念 ...............................................7 決策的概念及意義 ......................................................7 決策分析的概念及其理論基礎(chǔ) ............................................8 決策分析術(shù)語(yǔ) ......................................................8 決策問題的分類 ....................................................9 決策問題的不確定性 ................................................9 決策準(zhǔn)則 .........................................................10 決策的程序 .......................................................11 決策樹的相關(guān)概念 .....................................................12 決策樹的概念及作用 ...............................................12 決策樹的構(gòu)造 .....................................................13 決策樹的分析步驟 .................................................14 決策樹的局限性 ...................................................15 決策樹中的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分析 ...............................................153 決策樹在企業(yè)投資的應(yīng)用 ..................................................17 運(yùn)用 treeplan 建立企業(yè)投資方案決策樹 ....................................17 運(yùn)用 excel 對(duì)其進(jìn)行風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分析及規(guī)劃其風(fēng)險(xiǎn)圖 ..............................20 目標(biāo)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分析 .....................................................20 各個(gè)方案的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)圖 .................................................21II / 49 投資方案概率變化的靈敏度分析 .....................................24 用水晶球模擬概率分布風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分析 .........................................264 結(jié)論及展望 ..............................................................324 結(jié)論及展望 ..............................................................32 結(jié)論 ..................................................................32 整體最優(yōu)決策方案的確定 ...........................................32 影響整體最優(yōu)決策方案的因素 .......................................32 對(duì)類似的決策的示范意義： .........................................32 本文的不足之處與展望 .................................................33 模擬的局限性 .....................................................33 數(shù)據(jù)質(zhì)量的局限性 .................................................33 后續(xù)研究工作展望 .................................................33致謝 .......................................................................35參考文獻(xiàn) ...................................................................36附錄 .......................................................................37附錄 1 英文文獻(xiàn) .............................................................37附錄 2 漢語(yǔ)翻譯 ...............................................