【正文】 邯鄲市成安縣現(xiàn)代物流業(yè)發(fā)展規(guī)劃（20222020 年）東南大學(xué)交通學(xué)院2022 年 6 月目 錄1 規(guī)劃概述 ...........................................................................................................1 規(guī)劃背景 ..........................................................................................................................1 規(guī)劃范圍 ..........................................................................................................................3 規(guī)劃年限 ..........................................................................................................................4 規(guī)劃依據(jù) ..........................................................................................................................4 規(guī)劃原則 ..........................................................................................................................52 成安縣物流業(yè)發(fā)展環(huán)境分析 ...........................................................................7 成安縣地理區(qū)位分析 ......................................................................................................7 經(jīng)濟(jì)區(qū)位 ............................................................................................................................................................7 交通區(qū)位 ............................................................................................................................................................8 成安縣經(jīng)濟(jì)社會(huì)發(fā)展分析 ..............................................................................................9 經(jīng)濟(jì)總體水平 ...................................................................................................................................................9 工業(yè) ...................................................................................................................................................................12 農(nóng)業(yè) ...................................................................................................................................................................13 商業(yè) ...................................................................................................................................................................15 成安縣物流業(yè)發(fā)展現(xiàn)狀分析 ........................................................................................17 物流基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施 .................................................................................................................................................17 物流企業(yè) ..........................................................................................................................................................18 成安縣物流業(yè)發(fā)展的 SWOT 分析 ..............................................................................19 優(yōu)勢 ...................................................................................................................................................................19 劣勢 ...................................................................................................................................................................21 機(jī)遇 ...................................................................................................................................................................21 挑戰(zhàn) ...................................................................................................................................................................233 成安縣物流業(yè)發(fā)展趨勢與預(yù)測 .....................................................................25 預(yù)測思路 ........................................................................................................................25 綜合貨運(yùn)量預(yù)測 ............................................................................................................26 波布加門公式預(yù)測 ........................................................................................................................................27 多元回歸預(yù)測 .................................................................................................................................................28 二次拋物線預(yù)測 ............................................................................................................................................29 農(nóng)產(chǎn)品運(yùn)量預(yù)測 ............................................................................................................29 灰色模型預(yù)測 .................................................................................................................................................29 增長率法預(yù)測 .................................................................................................................................................31 趨勢貨運(yùn)量預(yù)測匯總 ....................................................................................................31 第三方物流總量預(yù)測 ....................................................................................................32 預(yù)測結(jié)果匯總 ................................................................................................................334 成安縣物流業(yè)戰(zhàn)略定位與發(fā)展目標(biāo) .............................................................34 戰(zhàn)略定位 ........................................................................................................................34 發(fā)展目標(biāo) ........................................................................................................................35 近期目標(biāo) ..........................................................................................................................................................35 遠(yuǎn)期目標(biāo) ..........................................................................................................................................................355 成安縣物流空間布局規(guī)劃 .............................................................................37 布局原則 ........................................................................................................................37 空間布局 ........................................................................................................................38 “一帶” ...............