【正文】 公共經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)：公共資本、政府公共支出與省區(qū)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長收斂再檢驗——基于面板數(shù)據(jù)模型實證分析 吳穎 周靖祥* 吳穎（1977—）：教授，女，漢族，重慶大學(xué)貿(mào)易與行政學(xué)院講師，重慶大學(xué)經(jīng)濟(jì)與工商管理學(xué)院博士研究生，研究方向：數(shù)量經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)；籍貫：重慶；電話：13594082666，郵箱：wymx@。周靖祥，重慶大學(xué)貿(mào)易及行政學(xué)院碩士研究生，郵箱：zhoujingx@。本文是教育部人文社科研究規(guī)劃基金項目(02JA790062)、國家社會科學(xué)基金(04xjy045)和07年“和諧社會的微觀經(jīng)濟(jì)理論研究”的階段性成果。（重慶大學(xué) 貿(mào)易及行政學(xué)院 重慶，400030）摘要：本文在測算1990～2005年31個省市的生產(chǎn)性公共資本存量基礎(chǔ)上，通過研究公共支出對經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的貢獻(xiàn)彈性發(fā)現(xiàn)：非生產(chǎn)性公共支出與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長呈負(fù)相關(guān)關(guān)系，與此相反，公共資本卻有利于省區(qū)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長。經(jīng)濟(jì)增長收斂模型的實證結(jié)果表明包含公共支出變量的情況下，20世紀(jì)90年代以來出現(xiàn)新古典經(jīng)濟(jì)增長收斂趨勢，%%，%。上述結(jié)論為政府公共支出的增量規(guī)模與結(jié)構(gòu)優(yōu)化提供理論借鑒。最后給出改變目前省區(qū)公共支出狀況的政策建議，將給予省區(qū)財政政策制定的修訂思路，也將是縮小區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)差距的有效措施。關(guān)鍵詞：公共支出 公共資本 經(jīng)濟(jì)增長收斂The Reinsertion of the Relationship between the Convergence Analyses of Economic Growth and Public Expenditure among Provinces: A Study Based on the Panel Data ModelWu Ying Zhou Jingxiang(Trade and Administration College, Chongqing University, Chongqing 400030, China)Abstracts：This paper firstly gives the calculation during 1990~2005 of 31 provinces and cities for the production public capital storage quantity, on the foundation then through the research for discovered public disbursement contribution elasticity which grows to the economy that: the unproductive public disbursement and the economical growth assumes the inverse correlation relations, on the contrary, the public capital is actually advantageous to the provincial capital area economy growth. The Empirical Research results for Convergence of interprovincial economic growth model indicates Neoclassical growth convergence trend by containing the mon disbursement variable since 199039。s, and speed that for mon capital of childbirth tending towards difference with speed for % and %,with nonproductive mon disbursement are %. The abovementioned conclusion draws lessons for mon disbursement of government increment scale and structural optimization provide theory. Being changed by take place finally saving mon area disbursement situation policy suggestion at present, will give revising that province area fiscal policy works out a train of thought, will also be to reduce regional economies gap effective measure.Keywords：Public Expenditure Convergence of Economic Growth Public Capital公共資本、政府公共支出與省區(qū)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長收斂再檢驗——基于面板數(shù)據(jù)模型實證分析摘要：本文在測算1990～1995年31個省市的生產(chǎn)性公共資本存量基礎(chǔ)上，通過研究公共支出對經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的貢獻(xiàn)彈性發(fā)現(xiàn)：非生產(chǎn)性公共支出與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長呈負(fù)相關(guān)關(guān)系，與此相反，公共資本卻有利于省區(qū)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長。經(jīng)濟(jì)增長收斂模型的實證結(jié)果表明包含公共支出變量的情況下，20世紀(jì)90年代以來出現(xiàn)新古典經(jīng)濟(jì)增長收斂趨勢，%%，%。上述結(jié)論為政府公共支出的增量規(guī)模與結(jié)構(gòu)優(yōu)化提供理論借鑒。最后給出改變目前省區(qū)公共支出狀況的政策建議，將給予省區(qū)財政政策制定的修訂思路，也將是縮小區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)差距的有效措施。關(guān)鍵詞：公共支出 公共資本 經(jīng)濟(jì)增長收斂The Reinsertion of the Relationship between the Convergence Analyses of Economic Growth and Public Expenditure among Provinces: A Study Based on the Panel Data ModelAbstracts：This paper firstly gives the calculation during 1990~1995 of 31 provinces and cities for the production public capital storage quantity, on the foundation then through the research for discovered public disbursement contribution elasticity which grows to the economy that: the unproductive public disbursement and the economical growth assumes the inverse correlation relations, on the contrary, the public capital is actually advantageous to the provincial capital area economy growth. The Empirical Research results for Convergence of interprovincial economic growth model indicates Neoclassical growth convergence trend by containing the mon disbursement variable since 199039。s, and speed that for mon capital of childbirth tending towards difference with speed for % and %,with nonproductive mon disbursement are %. The abovementioned conclusion draws lessons for mon disbursement of government increment scale and structural optimization provide theory. Being changed by take place finally saving mon area disbursement situation policy suggestion at present, will give revising that province area fiscal policy works out a train of thought, will also be to reduce regional economies gap effective measure.Keywords：Public Expenditure Convergence of Economic Growth Public Capital一、引言中國的區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)差異一直以來都是國內(nèi)外學(xué)術(shù)界高度關(guān)注的熱點問題，引發(fā)關(guān)于區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)收斂問題的爭論性研究。大多數(shù)研究的焦點是審視隨著時間的推移，國家內(nèi)的區(qū)域收入差距是在擴(kuò)大，或是縮小抑或毫無變化。由于區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)差距的概念較為模糊，因此，絕大多數(shù)研究采用區(qū)域人均收入指標(biāo)進(jìn)行研究，探索時間變化出現(xiàn)的區(qū)域人均收入不平衡程度的變化。進(jìn)入20世紀(jì)90年代，我國省區(qū)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長經(jīng)歷“大區(qū)域”差距短期差距擴(kuò)大之后開始出現(xiàn)“小區(qū)域”增長分布一致（見圖1），眾多文獻(xiàn)把這種現(xiàn)象稱為“趨同”。進(jìn)一步分析，圖1表明 圖1只列出15個省市的人均GDP增長速度，圖示變量名為省或市的簡稱，如CQ表示重慶，BJ表示北京，HLJ表示黑龍江等。為體現(xiàn)大區(qū)域與小區(qū)域的概念，圖中省份選取具有隨機(jī)性，涵蓋長江三角洲、珠江三角洲以及傳統(tǒng)意義上的東、中和西的概念劃分。1990～1995年經(jīng)濟(jì)增長差距明顯，自此之后，各省經(jīng)濟(jì)增長速度逐漸放緩，以北京和廣東為例，%、%%、%，并且這種差距呈現(xiàn)不斷縮小的趨勢。圖1 我國省區(qū)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長變化趨勢通過測算我國31個省市的實際人均GDP增長率發(fā)現(xiàn)近年來經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的趨同趨勢明顯增強(qiáng)。但是，也有學(xué)者對中國的經(jīng)濟(jì)收斂提出置疑，如王志剛（2004）對我國經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的收斂性進(jìn)行檢驗, 詳見王志剛，2004：《質(zhì)疑中國經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的條件收斂性》，《管理世界》第3期。包括絕對收斂、條件收斂，還有收斂俱樂部（convergence club） ,尤其是最后一種假設(shè)的檢驗。采用分省的改革開放以后的數(shù)