【正文】 公共經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)：公共資本、政府公共支出與省區(qū)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)收斂再檢驗(yàn)——基于面板數(shù)據(jù)模型實(shí)證分析 吳穎 周靖祥* 吳穎（1977—）：教授，女，漢族，重慶大學(xué)貿(mào)易與行政學(xué)院講師，重慶大學(xué)經(jīng)濟(jì)與工商管理學(xué)院博士研究生，研究方向：數(shù)量經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)；籍貫：重慶；電話：13594082666，郵箱：wymx@。周靖祥，重慶大學(xué)貿(mào)易及行政學(xué)院碩士研究生，郵箱：zhoujingx@。本文是教育部人文社科研究規(guī)劃基金項(xiàng)目(02JA790062)、國(guó)家社會(huì)科學(xué)基金(04xjy045)和07年“和諧社會(huì)的微觀經(jīng)濟(jì)理論研究”的階段性成果。（重慶大學(xué) 貿(mào)易及行政學(xué)院 重慶，400030）摘要：本文在測(cè)算1990～2005年31個(gè)省市的生產(chǎn)性公共資本存量基礎(chǔ)上，通過(guò)研究公共支出對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的貢獻(xiàn)彈性發(fā)現(xiàn)：非生產(chǎn)性公共支出與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)呈負(fù)相關(guān)關(guān)系，與此相反，公共資本卻有利于省區(qū)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)。經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)收斂模型的實(shí)證結(jié)果表明包含公共支出變量的情況下，20世紀(jì)90年代以來(lái)出現(xiàn)新古典經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)收斂趨勢(shì)，%%，%。上述結(jié)論為政府公共支出的增量規(guī)模與結(jié)構(gòu)優(yōu)化提供理論借鑒。最后給出改變目前省區(qū)公共支出狀況的政策建議，將給予省區(qū)財(cái)政政策制定的修訂思路，也將是縮小區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)差距的有效措施。關(guān)鍵詞：公共支出 公共資本 經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)收斂The Reinsertion of the Relationship between the Convergence Analyses of Economic Growth and Public Expenditure among Provinces: A Study Based on the Panel Data ModelWu Ying Zhou Jingxiang(Trade and Administration College, Chongqing University, Chongqing 400030, China)Abstracts：This paper firstly gives the calculation during 1990~2005 of 31 provinces and cities for the production public capital storage quantity, on the foundation then through the research for discovered public disbursement contribution elasticity which grows to the economy that: the unproductive public disbursement and the economical growth assumes the inverse correlation relations, on the contrary, the public capital is actually advantageous to the provincial capital area economy growth. The Empirical Research results for Convergence of interprovincial economic growth model indicates Neoclassical growth convergence trend by containing the mon disbursement variable since 199039。s, and speed that for mon capital of childbirth tending towards difference with speed for % and %,with nonproductive mon disbursement are %. The abovementioned conclusion draws lessons for mon disbursement of government increment scale and structural optimization provide theory. Being changed by take place finally saving mon area disbursement situation policy suggestion at present, will give revising that province area fiscal policy works out a train of thought, will also be to reduce regional economies gap effective measure.Keywords：Public Expenditure Convergence of Economic Growth Public Capital公共資本、政府公共支出與省區(qū)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)收斂再檢驗(yàn)——基于面板數(shù)據(jù)模型實(shí)證分析摘要：本文在測(cè)算1990～1995年31個(gè)省市的生產(chǎn)性公共資本存量基礎(chǔ)上，通過(guò)研究公共支出對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的貢獻(xiàn)彈性發(fā)現(xiàn)：非生產(chǎn)性公共支出與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)呈負(fù)相關(guān)關(guān)系，與此相反，公共資本卻有利于省區(qū)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)。經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)收斂模型的實(shí)證結(jié)果表明包含公共支出變量的情況下，20世紀(jì)90年代以來(lái)出現(xiàn)新古典經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)收斂趨勢(shì)，%%，%。上述結(jié)論為政府公共支出的增量規(guī)模與結(jié)構(gòu)優(yōu)化提供理論借鑒。最后給出改變目前省區(qū)公共支出狀況的政策建議，將給予省區(qū)財(cái)政政策制定的修訂思路，也將是縮小區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)差距的有效措施。關(guān)鍵詞：公共支出 公共資本 經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)收斂The Reinsertion of the Relationship between the Convergence Analyses of Economic Growth and Public Expenditure among Provinces: A Study Based on the Panel Data ModelAbstracts：This paper firstly gives the calculation during 1990~1995 of 31 provinces and cities for the production public capital storage quantity, on the foundation then through the research for discovered public disbursement contribution elasticity which grows to the economy that: the unproductive public disbursement and the economical growth assumes the inverse correlation relations, on the contrary, the public capital is actually advantageous to the provincial capital area economy growth. The Empirical Research results for Convergence of interprovincial economic growth model indicates Neoclassical growth convergence trend by containing the mon disbursement variable since 199039。s, and speed that for mon capital of childbirth tending towards difference with speed for % and %,with nonproductive mon disbursement are %. The abovementioned conclusion draws lessons for mon disbursement of government increment scale and structural optimization provide theory. Being changed by take place finally saving mon area disbursement situation policy suggestion at present, will give revising that province area fiscal policy works out a train of thought, will also be to reduce regional economies gap effective measure.Keywords：Public Expenditure Convergence of Economic Growth Public Capital一、引言中國(guó)的區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)差異一直以來(lái)都是國(guó)內(nèi)外學(xué)術(shù)界高度關(guān)注的熱點(diǎn)問(wèn)題，引發(fā)關(guān)于區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)收斂問(wèn)題的爭(zhēng)論性研究。大多數(shù)研究的焦點(diǎn)是審視隨著時(shí)間的推移，國(guó)家內(nèi)的區(qū)域收入差距是在擴(kuò)大，或是縮小抑或毫無(wú)變化。由于區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)差距的概念較為模糊，因此，絕大多數(shù)研究采用區(qū)域人均收入指標(biāo)進(jìn)行研究，探索時(shí)間變化出現(xiàn)的區(qū)域人均收入不平衡程度的變化。進(jìn)入20世紀(jì)90年代，我國(guó)省區(qū)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)經(jīng)歷“大區(qū)域”差距短期差距擴(kuò)大之后開(kāi)始出現(xiàn)“小區(qū)域”增長(zhǎng)分布一致（見(jiàn)圖1），眾多文獻(xiàn)把這種現(xiàn)象稱為“趨同”。進(jìn)一步分析，圖1表明 圖1只列出15個(gè)省市的人均GDP增長(zhǎng)速度，圖示變量名為省或市的簡(jiǎn)稱，如CQ表示重慶，BJ表示北京，HLJ表示黑龍江等。為體現(xiàn)大區(qū)域與小區(qū)域的概念，圖中省份選取具有隨機(jī)性，涵蓋長(zhǎng)江三角洲、珠江三角洲以及傳統(tǒng)意義上的東、中和西的概念劃分。1990～1995年經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)差距明顯，自此之后，各省經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)速度逐漸放緩，以北京和廣東為例，%、%%、%，并且這種差距呈現(xiàn)不斷縮小的趨勢(shì)。圖1 我國(guó)省區(qū)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)變化趨勢(shì)通過(guò)測(cè)算我國(guó)31個(gè)省市的實(shí)際人均GDP增長(zhǎng)率發(fā)現(xiàn)近年來(lái)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的趨同趨勢(shì)明顯增強(qiáng)。但是，也有學(xué)者對(duì)中國(guó)的經(jīng)濟(jì)收斂提出置疑，如王志剛（2004）對(duì)我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的收斂性進(jìn)行檢驗(yàn), 詳見(jiàn)王志剛，2004：《質(zhì)疑中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的條件收斂性》，《管理世界》第3期。包括絕對(duì)收斂、條件收斂，還有收斂俱樂(lè)部（convergence club） ,尤其是最后一種假設(shè)的檢驗(yàn)。采用分省的改革開(kāi)放以后的數(shù)