【正文】 中文 4335 字 Measurement of the Impacts of the Technical Barriers to Trade on Vegetable Export of China: An Empirical Study Based on the Gravity Model Larry D. Qiu July 2 2020 Abstract With the residue limits of pesticides in vegetables as the indication, the present paper employs the gravity model to measure the impacts of the technical barriers to trade on vegetable export of China. The analysis shows that the residue limits of the pesticides in vegetables set by Japan, US and EU have apparent negative impacts on the vegetable export of China. The vegetable export of China decreases by % with the rise in the strictness of residue limits by 10%. On the other hand, to raise the strictness in residue limits of pesticides in vegetables in China has some positive impacts on the vegetable export of China. The reversed transmission of the affirmative list policy of Japan, despite its apparent shortterm repressive impacts on the vegetable export of China, has positive impacts on the vegetable export of China as a whole to the US, European and Japanese markets. First， introduce situation and the gravity model (A) introduction With the development of economic globalization, and on the condition of WTO’s strictly limiting tariffs and quotas, antidumping, countervailing and other traditional nontariff measures, to protect human and animal and plant health and environmental resources, technical barriers to trade (TBT), because of its characteristics such as strong pertinence, good concealment, flexibility, are increasingly bee the main policy tools and means in the world especially in the developed countries to make the trade protection, which has a farreaching influence on international trade. In recent years, affected by various factors, China’s export of agricultural products has bee one of the most serious industries being limited by technical barriers to trade. TBT has caused great negative effect to China’s agricultural product export and domestic agricultural production. China is the world’s main vegetable production and export country. In recent years its rapid export growth has bee the second major categories of products. The main markets of China’s vegetable export are Japan, the United States, Europe and other developed countries and regions, which set higher levels of technical barriers to trade, so vegetable products also encounter more serious technical barriers to trade. According to the examples and data, in recent years, China’s vegetable products are hindered by technical barriers to trade, pesticide residues, microbial pollution and poor quality being the main reasons. And excessive pesticide residue account for 25% , which is our main concern. This article, taking American, European vegetable pesticide residue limits as a metric, is to measure TBT’s effect on China’s vegetable export. (B)applications of the gravity model in the standard measure of Trade Flow Monenius (1999) used this model to analyze the trade effect of spontaneous standard, the panel data covering the data of 471 industrial products from 1980 to 1995 in 12 European countries. He found that the sharing standard can eliminate the potential cost differences and has a great effect on the volume of trade. If the number of bilateral mutual criteria increases 1%, the corresponding trade volume increases about %. He also found that a country’s unilateral standard reduces the imports of non manufacturing sectors such as agricultural products, but promotes the trade of the manufacturing sector. This method was also applied in Gebrehiwet’s study (2020) (on the export effect of the aflatoxin standards of America, Europe and other developed countries on fruits, vegetables and nuts food for Asia Pacific and African countries) and Chen’s research (2020) (on the effect of oxytetracycline maximum residue limits in fish feed and chlorpyrifos maximum residue limit in insecticide on China’s fish products and fresh fruit exports). They all e to the same conclusion: the maximum residual standard can restrict the export of developing countries, and the more restrict the standard, the more obvious the restriction effect. In recent years, Chinese scholars have begun to use the gravity model to explain the effects of technical regulations and standards, technical barriers to trade. Zhaoxing (2020) deduced the gravitational equation of trade flow from the new classic and the new trade theory, and made a macro analysis on the Chinese agricultural product export flow. Dongsheng (2020), by use of the gravity model, analyzed the impact of Japanese limits of chlorpyrifos residues on China’s vegetables export to Japan. Pan Fengjie, et al. (2020) analyzed and verified the influencing factors of the gravity model for China’s vegetable export. In addition, Xu Haiqing (2020), Dong Yin