【正文】
guo (2020), Zhong Zijian (2020), Zhai Yinli (2020) and other researchers used the gravity model to make a quantitative analysis on the influence of technical barriers to trade on China’s export of agricultural products. According to the content of the research, and considering the availability of the data, this paper applies the gravity model method to the research. Second, the construction of the model and the data sources (A) the construction of the model To measure the effects of TBT on China’s vegetable export, we have constructed gravity model 1 to measure the impact of vegetable pesticide residue limits standard on trade, and plan to make an empirical analysis by using the panel data from China’s vegetable export to Japan, the United States and the European Union during the sixteen years from1995 to 2020. The form of Model 1 is specified as type (5): Where, Mijt is the vegetable trade volume of China’s export to country j during the t period. About the meaning of the explanatory variables, the theoretical prediction effect of the dependent variables (the expected symbols) and their descriptions are shown as in Table 1. Table 1 The Meaning of the Explanatory Variables, the Expected Symbols and Their Descriptions Explanatory variables Meaning Expected symbol Description Git Exporting country’s per capita GNP + Comprehensive reflection of the exporting country39。s economic development level and population status, and the potential supply ability of the country. Gjt Importing country39。s per capita GNP + Comprehensive reflection of the importing country39。s economic development level, population status, and the potential demand ability of the country. Dij The absolute distance between the capitals of the importing and exporting countries The geographical distance influences the transportation costs, and also indirectly influences the trade costs because of the differences in the country’s trade policy, customs and habits, and consumer’s preferences. Sit The number of vegetable pesticide residue limits standard implemented in the exporting country + The higher standards of the export country can enhance product quality, enhance the sharing standard level, and promote trade. Sjt The number of vegetable pesticide residue limits standard implemented in the importing country The higher standards of the importing country will increase modity production and export costs, also create obstacles to trade. All the time, Japan is the biggest market of China’s vegetable export, but also the most stringent country setting technical barriers to trade for China’s vegetables, especially the affirmative list policy carried out since 2020 has made China’s vegetable export to Japan in a more severe situation. Some studies have revealed that the affirmative list policy has caused in a short period of time great negative impact on China’s vegetable export to Japan, but the research on this policy’s influences on the overall situation of China’s vegetable export in a relatively long period is short. In order to reflect the whole effects of the affirmative list policy on China’s vegetable export, we add dummy variables to it on the basis on of Model 1, so we have Model 2 shown as type (6): In which R is the dummy variables of the affirmative list, its value being 1 since 2020, and its estimated coefficient being certainty, and the rest of the explanatory variables being shown as before. (B)the data sources In Model 2, Mijt is the vegetable trade of China’s exports to country j in t period. The data e from the “China Foreign Economic Statistical Yearbook”, in which each year all data from Chapter 7, 8 and 20 are accounted according to the customs imports and exports classification. Per capita GNP in China, Japan, the United States and the European Union are from the official website of the Statistical Bureau of People’s Republic of Chin and “The World Economy Yearbook ”. Considering the availability of data, German’s data stand for the data of EU as the German economy is the largest and most influential economy in the EU. The geographical distances from China to Japan, the United States and the European Union are obtained through the “distance calculator” of , among which the distance to the EU is the distance to Germany. Japan sets the standards of vegetable pesticide residue limits according to the pesticide use of each kind of vegetables. The standards had 1,743 items in the vegetable products before 2020. In 2020, the number reached 3728 items. From 2020, the number of agricultural residues rose sharply from more than 9,000 to more than 50,000 items. The standards for vegetables increased 2 times reaching to 7,456 items according to conservative estimates. For leaf type, bulbs, fr