【正文】 from 1997 to 20xx). Yet our analysis shows no correlation between one type of format and international success (defined as percent of sales growth outside home market CAGR 20xx to 20xx). We remend that panies enter with two formats at the same time and monitor the market, which affords them the flexibility to emphasize one format if it shows early signs of success. For example, successful global retailers often enter with one of the following binations: hypermarket and discount。 hypermarket and The . Kearney Global Retail Development Index ranks 30 emerg The GRDI Methodology inhabitants (20 percent): Modern retail is defined as hypermarkets, (CAGR 1998 to 20xx). The result is ranked from 0 to 100, with 0 ing countries on a 100point scale. The higher the ranking, the more urgent it is to enter a country. The scores are based on the following variables: ? Economic and political risk (40 percent): Based on the Euromoney database, this variable is broken down as follows: political risk (25 percent), economic performance (25 percent), debt indicators (10 per cent), debt in default or rescheduled (10 percent), credit ratings (10 per cent), access to bank finance (5 per cent), access to shortterm finance (5 percent), access to capital markets (5 percent), discount in forfeiting (5 percent). A score of 0 indicates high risk, a score of 100 indicates low risk. ? Modern retail area per 1000 supermarkets and cash and carry stores. A 0 weighting means that the total retail area in the country is high, close to the average Western European level (200 square meters per 1000 inhabitants)。 a score of 100 means countries have low density. ? Number of international retail ers in the country (20 percent): Countries without modern retailers as of March 20xx scored 100。 coun tries with the maximum number of retailers score 0. (Poland represents the maximum number of interna tional grocers present in a country.) ? Time pressure (20 percent): The “time factor” is measured by the dif ference between the country gross domestic product (GDP) growth (CAGR from 1999 to 20xx) and the modern retail area growth . . indicating that modern retail is progressing rapidly and 100 indi cating that modern retail is pro gressing slowly — representing an opportunity. The calculation is based on a subtraction when the GDP growth is positive and a sum when the GDP growth is negative. Before applying . Kearney’s ranking criteria, we preselected countries from a list of 180 based on economic and political risk (selected countries have a risk between 30 and 70). Data is based primarily on the World Bank Reports, Euromoney and Euromonitor databases. Fifty percent of interview participants are retailers, 30 percent are from academia and 20 percent are other retail experts. . Kearney updates the GRDI annually. Emerging Market Priorities for Food Retailers supermarket。 or supermarket and discount. The mix varies by retailer and region. International retailers Carrefour and Tesco favor a hypermarket and supermarket mix in Eastern Europe. In Asia, Carrefour primarily mixes hypermarkets and discount stores (opening in Shanghai this year under the Dia banner). WalMart also uses a mix in Puerto Rico and China. In addi tion to its existing hypermarkets, it has opened its popular Sam’s Club and supermarkets such as Amigo. In Latin America, Carrefour and Casino both sell through hypermarkets, supermarkets and discount stores. Hedging your bets with dual formats is not enough to limit risk。 changing circumstances may mandate the consideration of additional formats. The key, therefore, is in timing the switch from one format to another. In Thailand, Tesco entered with hypermarkets (Tesco Lotus), then convenience stores。 it now plans to expand with supermarket formats. Casino entered with its Big C hypermarket and is now launching a Leader Price store. Terms of ownership do not follow a formula either。 models differ by region and implemen tation phase. For example, in Malaysia, Tesco formed a joint venture (30 percent ownership) with Malaysian conglomerate Sime Darby Berhad. In Turkey, Tesco acquired 84 percent of Turkish retailer Kipa’s business. Our analysis also shows that time is an important factor in global expansion. When a retailer eyes Russia, the Philippines and Chile, how does it decide where to move first? The timing of the entry into a country is critical, as is the time a retailer takes to get operations up and running. In 1999, Sainsbury’s Supermarkets chose Egypt for one of its first attempts outside its home base in the United Kingdom, but failed and was forced to retreat after rapid expansion in 20xx. Auchan had a similar experience in Malaysia and was forced to withdraw in 20xx. We are not advocating a fast—or slow— entry. The most appropriate timing will vary depending on a plex set of factors, including the retailer’s strategy and capabilities, its size, and the petitive landscape in the new country. Most retailers will take one of three approaches: quick expansion, an escalator method in which retailers alternate between periods of growth and stable states, or waitandsee (see figure 2 on page 4). In 20xx, for example, Casino opened an office in Russia, taking a ―waitand see‖ attitude, planning to develop a retail base through acquisitions. Carrefour used the same strategy in entering Russia and China. Other retailers, including Ahold in the Czech Republic, took a different approach, quickly opening stores to grab a firstmover advantage. WalMart prefers the escalator approach. Although each retailer had different battle strateg