【正文】 ts findings emerge from an “opt in” invitation to experts who have been identified by researching those who are widely quoted as technology builders and analysts and those who have made insightful predictions to our previous queries about the future of the Inter. (For more details, please see the section “About this Canvassing of Experts.”) Key themes: reasons to be hopeful 1) Advances in technology may displace certain types of work, but historically they have been a creator of jobs. 2) We will adapt to these changes by inventing entirely new types of work, and by taking advantage of uniquely human capabilities. 3) Technology will free us from daytoday drudgery, and allow us to define our relationship with “work” in a more positive and socially beneficial way. 4) Ultimately, we as a society control our own destiny through the choices we make. Key themes: reasons to be concerned 1) Impacts from automation have thus far impacted mostly bluecollar employment。 the ing wave of innovation threatens to upend whitecollar work as well. 2) Certain highlyskilled workers will succeed wildly in this new environment—but far more may be displaced into lower paying service industry jobs at best, or permanent unemployment at worst. 3) Our educational system is not adequately preparing us for work of the future, and our political and economic institutions are poorly equipped to handle these hard choices. Some 1,896 experts responded to the following question: The economic impact of robotic advances and AI—Selfdriving cars, intelligent digital agents that can act for you, and robots are advancing rapidly. Will worked, 5 PEW RESEARCH CENTER g automated, artificial intelligence (AI) applications and robotic devices have displaced more jobs than they have created by 2025? Half of these experts (48%) envision a future in which robots and digital agents have displaced significant numbers of both blue and whitecollar workers—with many expressing concern that this will lead to vast increases in ine inequality, masses of people who are effectively unemployable, and breakdowns in the social order. The other half of the experts who responded to this survey (52%) expect that technology will not displace more jobs than it creates by 2025. To be sure, this group anticipates that many jobs currently performed by humans will be substantially taken over by robots or digital agents by 2025. But they have faith that human ingenuity will create new jobs, industries, and ways to make a living, just as it has been doing since the dawn of the Industrial Revolution. These two groups also share certain hopes and concerns about the impact of technology on employment. For instance, many are concerned that our existing social structures—and especially our educational institutions—are not adequately preparing people for the skills that will be needed in the job market of the future. Conversely, others have hope that the ing changes will be an opportunity to reassess our society?s relationship to employment itself—by returning to a focus on smallscale or artisanal modes of production, or by giving people more time to spend on leisure, selfimprovement, or time with loved ones. A number of themes ran through the responses to this question: those that are unique to either group, and those that were mentioned by members of both groups. JP Rangaswami, chief scientist for , offered a number of reasons for his belief that automation will not be a displacer of jobs in the next decade: “The effects will be different in different economies (which themselves may look different from today39。s political boundaries). Driven by revolutions in education and in technology, the very nature of work will have changed radically—but only in economies that have chosen to invest in education, technology, and related infrastructure. Some classes of jobs will be handed over to the ?immigrants? of AI and Robotics, but more will have been generated in creative and curating activities as demand for their services grows exponentially while barriers to entry continue to fall. For many classes of jobs, robots will continue to be poor labor substitutes.” 6 PEW RESEARCH CENTER g Rangaswami?s prediction incorporates a number of arguments made by those in this canvassing who took his side of this question. Argument 1: Throughout history, technology has been a job creator—not a job destroyer Vint Cerf, vice president and chief Inter evangelist for Google, said, “Historically, technology has created more jobs than it destroys and there is no reason to think otherwise in this case. Someone has to make and service all these advanced devices.” Jonathan Grudin, principal researcher for Microsoft, concurred: “Technology will continue to disrupt jobs, but more jobs seem likely to be created. When the world population was a few hundred million people there were hundreds of millions of jobs. Although there have always been unemployed people, when we reached a few billion people there were billions of jobs. There is no shortage of things that need to be done and that will not change.” Michael Kende, the economist for a major Interoriented nonprofit anization, wrote, “In general, every wave of automation and puterization has increased productivity without depressing employment, and there is no reason to think the same will not be true this time. In particular, the new wave is likely to increase our personal or professional productivity (. self driving car) but not necessarily directly displace a job (. chauffeur). While robots may displace some manual jobs, the impact should not be different than previous waves of automation in factories and elsewhere. On the other hand, someone will have to code and build the ne