【正文】 ources allocated in Agriculture. 僵硬的社會結(jié)構(gòu)，阻礙經(jīng)濟(jì)變革 stark social structure 生產(chǎn)力水平、生產(chǎn)率低下 low productivity 人均實(shí)際收入僅夠維持生存 subsistence standard Interlinked stages turning points and leading sectors –essential elements 13 為起飛創(chuàng)造前提階段 the preconditions for takeoff 近代科學(xué)知識開始發(fā)揮作用 modern science and knowledge 金融機(jī)構(gòu)開始出現(xiàn)；商業(yè)擴(kuò)大；農(nóng)業(yè)的貢獻(xiàn)；近代工業(yè)開始迅速發(fā)展 Financial institute, mercial sector。 agricultural surplus, modern industrial 政治上相應(yīng)的變革，發(fā)展統(tǒng)一市場，維持一種財(cái)政制度，資本積累 reform of politics, mon market, fiscal system, capital accumulation 時(shí)期：英國是第一個(gè)，大約經(jīng)歷 2030年 Britain 14 起飛階段 the takeoff The most important stage that is the launching pad of accelerated capitalist growth, which means the rate of economic growth could be deliberately accelerated The takeoff was defined ‘ as requiring all three of the following related conditions’ : 提高生產(chǎn)性的投資率 a rise in the rate of productive investment from say, 5 percent or less to over 10 percent of national/ national ine 建立和擴(kuò)展“主導(dǎo)部門” the development of one or more substantial manufacturing sectors, with a high rate of growth 進(jìn)行一些變革，有政治、社會和制度保證 the existence of quick emergence of a political, social, and institutional framework that exploits the impulses to expansion in the modern sector 時(shí)期：大致為 30年。 15 向成熟推進(jìn)階段 the drive to maturity 主導(dǎo)部門：鋼、新式船艦、化學(xué)品及現(xiàn)代工作母機(jī)等 leading sectors: steel, shipboard, chemical products, master machine 人均收入持續(xù)增長，技術(shù)不斷改進(jìn) persisting increase of ine, improvement of technology 經(jīng)濟(jì)結(jié)構(gòu)：農(nóng)業(yè)勞動(dòng)力比例從 40%降到 20% economic structure 時(shí)期：發(fā)達(dá)國家經(jīng)過 40多年；一些發(fā)展中國家， 20世紀(jì)60年代進(jìn)入 16 群眾性高額消費(fèi)階段 the stage of mass consumption 主導(dǎo)部門：耐用消費(fèi)品和服務(wù)業(yè)方面 durables 資源結(jié)構(gòu)：日益增大的資源用來生產(chǎn)耐用消費(fèi)品和勞務(wù)；技術(shù)工人在勞動(dòng)中的比率、城市居民在總?cè)丝谥械谋嚷噬仙?；供社會福利及保障的資源增大 resource structures 時(shí)期：美國始于 19131914年福特汽車公司開始采用自動(dòng)裝配線時(shí)；西歐和日本則在 20世紀(jì) 50年代進(jìn)入這一階段 Ford assembly line 17 追求生活質(zhì)量階段 the drive to high quality of life 主導(dǎo)部門：以服務(wù)業(yè)為代表的提高居民“生活質(zhì)量”的有關(guān)部門（包括教育、市政、保健、環(huán)境、旅游等）leading sector： service sectors focusing on improving living standard 18 對起飛理論的理解 Understanding of takeoff theory ? 生產(chǎn)能力增長的關(guān)鍵：主導(dǎo)部門 manufacturing as the leading sector ? 投資與增長的關(guān)系 the investment ratio ? 政治與社會制度變革 state capitalism, far from advocating reliance on market forces, but legitimizing state intervention in third world development ? 援助計(jì)劃的形成 based on planning and foreign aid 19 （三）均衡（平衡）增長理論 Balanced growth 貧困惡性循環(huán)理論 Vicious circles of poverty 羅格納 ?納克斯 1953年《不發(fā)達(dá)國家的資本形成》 長期貧困的原因，不是因?yàn)橘Y源不足，而是存在若干個(gè)“惡性循環(huán)系列” reasons of poverty: a series of vicious circles 主要是“貧困惡性循環(huán)”，即資本形成的供給與需求方面的惡性循環(huán) vicious circles of poverty is about the capital formative process in the aspects of supply and demand Solutions: Birth Control. Bigpush 20 低收入 low ine 低產(chǎn)出 low output 低生產(chǎn)率 low productivity 低資本形成 capital shortage or narrow capital stock 低儲蓄能力 low saving rate 投資引誘不足 low propensity to invest 低購買能力 limited purchasing power 資本供給的惡性循環(huán) Supply Side 資本需求的惡性循環(huán) Demand Side 21 大推動(dòng)理論 The Big push Theory of Industrializtion 羅森斯坦 羅丹 Paul RosensteinRodan (1943) Industrialization is the way of achieving a more equal distribution of ine between different areas of the world by raising ines in depressed areas at a higher rate than in rich areas 發(fā)展中國家的特征：人口眾多、勞動(dòng)力剩余、收入低下和資本投資規(guī)模太小 massive population, surplus labor, low ine and low investment 必須全面地大規(guī)模地在各個(gè)工業(yè)部門（尤其是基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施建設(shè)方面）投入資本，透過投資的“大推動(dòng)”，來沖破束縛，迅速實(shí)現(xiàn)工業(yè)化，達(dá)到經(jīng)濟(jì)增長等一系列目標(biāo) largescale manufacturing and megaprojects, two sets of criteria for Bigness: economies of scale and modern technology 22 ? 原因：三個(gè) 不可分性 three impartibilities 資本供給方面的不可分：社會分?jǐn)傎Y本（ Social Overhead Capital) 供給的不可分 Supply 需求的不可分：一套互相聯(lián)系的產(chǎn)業(yè)形成的市場需求的不可分。要求克服市場“瓶頸” Demand 儲蓄的不可分性：儲蓄的增長是有階段性的，只有當(dāng)收入的增長超過一定限度之后，儲蓄才會急劇上升。 Savings 23 ? 意義 Implication 規(guī)模經(jīng)濟(jì)效益：成本降低；外在經(jīng)濟(jì) The Economies of Scale: internal (more efficient division of labor within a firm) and external (crossfertilization amongst firms in an industry) ? 不足 Failure failed to replicate the European success story in the Third Wor