[經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)]發(fā)展經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)(3)-文庫(kù)吧
2025-01-04 16:20 本頁(yè)面
【正文】 tal investment ?有保證的增長(zhǎng)率：這樣一種增長(zhǎng)率將引誘投資剛好等于計(jì)劃的儲(chǔ)蓄，保持資本完全被就業(yè)，從而制造商愿意在未來以過去相同的比例進(jìn)行投資 The HarrodDomar Model IKYvsYS ??????() YvsY ??() wgvsYY???() HarrodDomar theory of economic growth ? The rate of growth of economic output I s determined jointly by the national saving ratio S and national capitaloutput ratio K ? The main obstacle on development is the relatively low level of new capital formation in most poor countries ? Justifying massive transfers of capital and technical assistance from developed to less developed nations ? Saving and investment is the necessary condition for economic growth but not the sufficient condition ? How about the ability of converting new capital effectively into high levels of output managerial petence。 skilled labor。 wellintegrated modity and money market。 institutional settings。 infrastructures Criticism of HarrodDomar model Stability of economic growth Harrodian knifeedge ? 保證均衡增長(zhǎng)： g=gw ? 一旦偏離均衡，即實(shí)際增長(zhǎng)率與有保證增長(zhǎng)率出現(xiàn)偏差，則這種偏離不會(huì)自行矯正，反而會(huì)加重 ? 如實(shí)際增長(zhǎng)率低于有保證的增長(zhǎng)率，在初期儲(chǔ)蓄率相同情況下，實(shí)際的資本產(chǎn)出比大于有保證的資本產(chǎn)出比，將出現(xiàn)資本品過剩，投資受到抑制，儲(chǔ)蓄率進(jìn)一步下降，投資受到抑制，使實(shí)際增長(zhǎng)率更低于均衡增長(zhǎng)率 ? 如實(shí)際增長(zhǎng)率高于有保證的增長(zhǎng)率，則實(shí)際的資本產(chǎn)出率低于有保證的資本產(chǎn)出率，資本品不足會(huì)刺激投資，導(dǎo)致實(shí)際增長(zhǎng)率進(jìn)一步增大，更加偏離有保證的增長(zhǎng)率，使得資本品更加不足 Stability of economic growth Harrodian knifeedge Stability of economic growth Harrodian knifeedge ? 黃金時(shí)代定理 : actual growth rate = warranted growth rate = natural growth rate of the labor force. Thus n = s/v is the necessary condition for economic growth. （ Joan Robinson： Golden Age rule ， Cambridge University） ? 自然增長(zhǎng)率 取決于勞動(dòng)力的增長(zhǎng)速率和勞動(dòng)生產(chǎn)率的增長(zhǎng)速率 )//()/(//)/l o g (l o gl o g)/(LYLYLLYYLYLYLYLY????????? But s, v and n are determined independently and there is nothing that guarantees that s/v will be equal to n. thus the golden rule is very hard to achieve. ? It is a knifeedge growth rate (very unstable system, with no mechanism to bring the economy back to the equilibrium growth rate). ? When the economy is growing fast, it continues to grow even faster and goes beyond full employment (. high inflation), but when growth is slow, it continues to grow even slower (. high unemployment). 發(fā)展中國(guó)家的情況 ? 自然增長(zhǎng)率高于有保證的增長(zhǎng)率 ? 意味著有效勞動(dòng)力增長(zhǎng)高于資本積累速度，導(dǎo)致失業(yè)日益增長(zhǎng)
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