[經(jīng)濟學]發(fā)展經(jīng)濟學(3)-文庫吧
2025-01-04 16:20 本頁面
【正文】 tal investment ?有保證的增長率：這樣一種增長率將引誘投資剛好等于計劃的儲蓄，保持資本完全被就業(yè)，從而制造商愿意在未來以過去相同的比例進行投資 The HarrodDomar Model IKYvsYS ??????() YvsY ??() wgvsYY???() HarrodDomar theory of economic growth ? The rate of growth of economic output I s determined jointly by the national saving ratio S and national capitaloutput ratio K ? The main obstacle on development is the relatively low level of new capital formation in most poor countries ? Justifying massive transfers of capital and technical assistance from developed to less developed nations ? Saving and investment is the necessary condition for economic growth but not the sufficient condition ? How about the ability of converting new capital effectively into high levels of output managerial petence。 skilled labor。 wellintegrated modity and money market。 institutional settings。 infrastructures Criticism of HarrodDomar model Stability of economic growth Harrodian knifeedge ? 保證均衡增長： g=gw ? 一旦偏離均衡，即實際增長率與有保證增長率出現(xiàn)偏差，則這種偏離不會自行矯正，反而會加重 ? 如實際增長率低于有保證的增長率，在初期儲蓄率相同情況下，實際的資本產(chǎn)出比大于有保證的資本產(chǎn)出比，將出現(xiàn)資本品過剩，投資受到抑制，儲蓄率進一步下降，投資受到抑制，使實際增長率更低于均衡增長率 ? 如實際增長率高于有保證的增長率，則實際的資本產(chǎn)出率低于有保證的資本產(chǎn)出率，資本品不足會刺激投資，導(dǎo)致實際增長率進一步增大，更加偏離有保證的增長率，使得資本品更加不足 Stability of economic growth Harrodian knifeedge Stability of economic growth Harrodian knifeedge ? 黃金時代定理 : actual growth rate = warranted growth rate = natural growth rate of the labor force. Thus n = s/v is the necessary condition for economic growth. （ Joan Robinson： Golden Age rule ， Cambridge University） ? 自然增長率 取決于勞動力的增長速率和勞動生產(chǎn)率的增長速率 )//()/(//)/l o g (l o gl o g)/(LYLYLLYYLYLYLYLY????????? But s, v and n are determined independently and there is nothing that guarantees that s/v will be equal to n. thus the golden rule is very hard to achieve. ? It is a knifeedge growth rate (very unstable system, with no mechanism to bring the economy back to the equilibrium growth rate). ? When the economy is growing fast, it continues to grow even faster and goes beyond full employment (. high inflation), but when growth is slow, it continues to grow even slower (. high unemployment). 發(fā)展中國家的情況 ? 自然增長率高于有保證的增長率 ? 意味著有效勞動力增長高于資本積累速度，導(dǎo)致失業(yè)日益增長
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