【正文】 ge in data mining as great is the human capacity to discern patterns where no patterns exist. Technical analysts must avoid mining data to support a theory rather than using data to test a theory. 12. Even if prices follow a random walk, the existence of irrational investors bined with the limits to arbitrage by arbitrageurs may allow persistent mispricings to be present. This implies that capital will not be allocated efficiently—capital does not immediately flow from relatively unproductive firms to relatively productive firms.13. Trin ==$1,058,313/1,553$852,581/1,455=This trin ratio, which is above , would be taken as a bearish signal.14. Breadth:AdvancesDeclinesNet Advances1,4551,55398Breadth is negative—bearish signal (no one would actually use a oneday measure).15. This exercise is left to the student。 answers will vary, but successful students should be able to identify time periods when upward or downward trends are obvious. This exercise also shows the benefit of hindsight, which investors do not possess when making current decisions. 16. The confidence index increases from (5%/6%) = to (6%/7%) = .This indicates slightly higher confidence which would be interpreted by technicians as a bullish signal. But the real reason for the increase in the index is the expectation of higher inflation, not higher confidence about the economy.17. At the beginning of the period, the price of Computers, Inc. divided by the industry index was 。 by the end of the period, the ratio had increased to . As the ratio increased over the period, it appears that Computers, Inc. outperformed other firms in its industry. The overall trend, therefore, indicates relative strength, although some fluctuation existed during the period, with the ratio falling to a low point of on day 19.18. Five day moving averages:Days 1 – 5: ( + 20 + + 22 + ) / 5 = Days 2 – 6 = Days 3 – 7 = Days 4 – 8 = Days 5 – 9 = Days 6 – 10 = Days 7 – 11 = Days 8 – 12 = 172。Sell signal (day 12 price moving average)Days 9 – 13 = Days 10 – 14 = Days 11 – 15 = Days 12 – 16 = Days 13 – 17 = Days 14 – 18 = Days 15 – 19 = Days 16 – 20 = Days 17 – 21 = 172。Buy signal (day 21 price moving average)Days 18 – 22 = Days 19 – 23 = Days 20 – 24 = Days 21 – 25 = Days 22 – 26 = Days 23 – 27 = Days 24 – 28 = Days 25 – 29 = Days 26 – 30 = Days 27 – 31 = Days 28 – 32 = Days 29 – 33 = 172。Sell signal (day 33 price moving average)Days 30 – 34 = Days 31 – 35 = Days 32 – 36 = Days 33 – 37 = Days 34 – 38 = Days 35 – 39 = Days 36 – 40 = 19. This pattern shows a lack of breadth. Even though the index is up, more stocks declined than advanced, which indicates a “l(fā)ack of broadbased support” for the rise in the index.20.DayAdvancesDeclinesNet AdvancesCumulative Breadth190670420220226539863331313721789 68199450396846566454971,0955981,262697070226899471,00260939360189037221814209850748102318107667660318The signal is bearish as cumulative breadth is negative。 however, the negative number is declining in magnitude, indicative of improvement. Perhaps the worst of the bear market has passed.21. Trin = This is a slightly bullish indicator, with average volume in advancing issues a bit greater than average volume in declining issues.22. Confidence Index = This year: Confidence index = (8%/%) = Last year: Confidence index = (%/10%) = Thus, the confidence index is decreasing.23. Note: In order to create the 26week moving average for the Samp。P 500, we converted the weekly returns to weekly index values, with a base of 100 for the week prior to the first week of the data set. The following graph shows the Samp。P 500 values and the 26week moving average, beginning with the 26th week of the data set.a. The graph summarizes the data for the 26week moving average. The graph also shows the values of the Samp。P 500 index.b. The Samp。P 500 crosses through its moving average from below 14 times, as indicated in the table below. The index increases seven times in weeks following a crossthrough and decreases seven times.Date ofCrossThroughDirection of Samp。P 500 in Subsequent Week05/18/01Decrease06/08/01Decrease12/07/01Decrease12/21/01Increase03/01/02Increase11/22/02Increase01/03/03Increase03/21/03Decrease04/17/03Increase06/10/04Decrease09/03/04Increase10/01/04Decrease10/29/04Increase04/08/05Decreasec. The Samp。P 500 crosses through its moving average from above 14 times, as indicated in the table below. The index increases nine times in weeks following a crossthrough and decreases five times.Date of CrossThroughDirection of Samp。P 500 in Subsequent WeekDate of CrossThroughDirection of Samp。P 500 in Subsequent Week06/01/01Increase03/28/03Increase06/15/01Increase04/30/04Decrease12/14/01Increase07/02/04Decrease02/08/02Increase09/24/04Increase04/05/02Decrease10/15/04Decrease12/13/02Increase0