【正文】 0% 12 1 10 股價 t = 0 分紅 股價 t = n ? 反映了公司最終擁有者的回報率 ? 用作各投資機構(gòu)的積分卡 ? 不受會計操作的影響 ? 全面體現(xiàn)獲利率和和增長率 ? 是高層管理者持股分配的基礎(chǔ) 股票價格 分 紅 獲利率和增長率驅(qū)動股價 股東回報率 (TSR) 衡量分析指數(shù) 投資者回報 TSR定義 投資資本的現(xiàn)金流回報 CFROI 可持續(xù)增長 自由現(xiàn)金流 投資資本的現(xiàn)金流回報 CFROI 全面衡量公司業(yè)績 ? 當(dāng)上市公司擁有以下特征時，較為適合使用 CFROI: – 長年限的固定資產(chǎn) (平均超過 15 年 ) – 具有大量固定資產(chǎn) – 固定資產(chǎn)非常陳舊或非常新 – 具有大型投資模板和行為 益處 CFROI 定義 ? 跨國家，跨行業(yè)，跨時間比較 ? 不受資產(chǎn)的年限和組合的影響 ? 全面 ? 使內(nèi)部決策和外部資本市場的表現(xiàn)掛鉤 ? 提供投資項目的回顧審計 ? 與資本成本可直接比較 資產(chǎn)年限 營運資本 總現(xiàn)金流動量 總投資額 CFROI = IRR on a business CFROI計算結(jié)果 (1999年 ) 5424 0 644 6,068 22,292 10,411 9,369 48,140 564 2163 1214 138 3891 Net Ine + Depreciation + Interest Expense + Minority Interest + Gross Cash Flow Net Working Capital +Land +Investments = Non Depreciating Assets + Net Fixed Assets + Accum. Depr.* + Inflation Adjustment* Gross Investment 資產(chǎn)年限 = 20 營運資本 + 土地 Sinopec 1999 ($ millions) Source: DC Analysis, Company financial statements CFROI = IRR = % 48,140 4,079 6,068 *DC Estimates ?Peers? ?Cost of Capital? ?Plan CFROI? IRR： 內(nèi)部收益率 5927 0 739 6,666 22,897 10,599 9,539 49,701 1926* 2322* 814* 110* 5172* Net Ine + Depreciation + Interest Expense + Minority Interest + Gross Cash Flow Net Working Capital +Land +Investments = Non Depreciating Assets + Net Fixed Assets + Accum. Depr.* + Inflation Adjustment* Gross Investment 資產(chǎn)年限 = 20 營運資本 + 土地 Sinopec 2022 ($ millions) Source: DC Analysis, Company financial statements CFROI = IRR = % 49,701 5,172 6,666 *DC Estimates ?Peers? ?Cost of Capital? ?Plan CFROI? CFROI計算結(jié)果 (2022年 ) IRR： 內(nèi)部收益率 Positive Spread Business Neutral Spread Business Negative Spread Business Discount Rate: WACC ? Increase CFROI ? Hold CFROI Grow Assets ? Erode CFROI Grow Faster ? Increase CFROI ? Then Grow ? Increase CFROI ? Reduce Reinvestment ? Divest or Liquidate CFROI % Strategies for Value Creation 任何業(yè)務(wù)都可創(chuàng)造價值 – 但需要按不同的情況設(shè)定戰(zhàn)略 Note: this applies to business units as well as corporations overall 市場是如何設(shè)定股價的 ? CFROI Asset Size Fade Net Cash Flows 1 + Discount Rate Share Price Asset Growth = Investors 評估使用表現(xiàn)指標(biāo)和貼現(xiàn)現(xiàn)金流量 Gross Investment Sustainable Growth PV Cash Flow Existing Assets PV Cash Flow Future Investment Total Economic Value Market Value of Debt1) Equity Value 34236 1026 33210 12687 20523 1) ST amp。 LT, minority interest % $49,701 m % 10% $ mil $Fade Rate Discount Rate % CFROI Sinopec, Fiscal 2022 estimate 的股價是由 CFROI和增長決定的 Real Asset Growth Rate (%) CFROI (%) Sinopec equity value (fiscal 2022) Base Case What is it worth if we improve? Note: Growth only improves value if CFROI improves to “positive spread” 如 何 在 一 體 企 業(yè) 中 實 施 財 務(wù) 分 析 系 統(tǒng) CEO/Board Business Units Operations How do I influence Share Price? What is the best way to allocate my capital? How do I improve execution? Determine where value is being created/destroyed Allocate capital like a portfolio manager Implement a consistent amp。 planning process linked to KPI’s and p. Communicate to the market in a language they respond to Fund Managers Shareholders How do I maximize shareholder returns? Realize maximum value for shareholders TSR 股價和運營的聯(lián)接 Link to KPIs 各種價值指標(biāo)的波動直接影響股價 Value Sinopec CFROI % Asset Life 20 years Asset Turns Gross Plant Asset Turns Net Cash Flow Asset Growth % Fade Rate 10%/year Size Differential Leverage Differential +.57 Gross Cash Flow Adjusted Gross Assets 48,002 NonDep. Assets 6,666 Operating Margin % Sales Growth ??% COGS as a % of Sales % SGamp。A as a % of Sales % Inventory Turns A/R Turns CFROI Variability High Ploughback Low to Average Country Discount Rate % 1+ WACC = Unit Volume Price Realisation Link to KPIs Value Drivers provide the direction and KPIs provide the feedback. A multitier system of measures is optimal, with the most accurate (and usually plicated) used by the finance department. From there on, simplification and controllability of KPIs is critical as they are driven broadly and deeply throughout the anisation Revenue Growth Operating Margins/ Expenses Working Capital Asset Productivity Stimulat