勞動(dòng)與社會(huì)保障外文翻譯-文庫(kù)吧
2025-09-28 05:21 本頁(yè)面
【正文】 The assumption that the third correlation in ()— between the transitory ponents of ine and consumption— is zero is a much stronger assumption. It is primarily this assumption that introduces important substantive content into the hypothesis and makes it susceptible of contradiction by a wide range of phenomena capable of being observed. The ultimate test of its acceptability is of course whether such phenomena are in fact observed, and most of what follows is devoted to this question. It is hardly worth proceeding to such more refined tests, however, unless the assumption can pass— or at least not fail miserably— the much cruder test of consistency with casual observation of one39。s self and one39。s neighbors, so some ments on the intuitive plausibility of the assumption are not out of order. The mon notion that savings, or at least certain ponents of savings, are a residual speaks strongly for the plausibility of the assumption. For this notion implies that consumption is determined by rather longterm considerations, so that any transitory changes in ine lead primarily to additions to assets or to the use of previously accumulated balances rather than to corresponding changes in consumption. Yet from another point of view, the assumption seems highly implausible. Will not a man who receives an unexpected windfall use at least some part of it in riotous living, . in consumption expenditures? Would he be likely to add the whole of it to his wealth? The answer to these questions depends greatly on bow consumption is defined. The offhand affirmative answer reflects in large measure,I believe, an implicit definition of consumption in terms of purchases, including durable goods, rather than in terms of the value of services. If the latter definition is adopted, as seems highly desirable in applying the hypothesis to empirical data— though unfortunately I have been able to do so to only a limited extent— much that one classifies off hand as consumption is reclassified as savings. Is not the windfall likely to be used for the purchase of durable goods? Or, to put it differently, is not the timing of the replacement of durable goods and of additions to the stock of such goods likely to some extent to be adjusted so as to coincide with windfalls? Two other consideration argue for the plausibility of the assumption that transitory ponents of ine and consumption are , the above identification of a windfall with transitory ine is not precise. Suppose, for example, inheritances are included .in a particular concept of measured ine. Consider a consumer unit whose receipts remain unchanged over a succession of time periods except that it receives an inheritance in the final period. If the 濟(jì)南大學(xué)畢業(yè)論文外文資料翻譯 3 inheritance was expected to occur some time or oth
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